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Tim from Springfield (IL)

May 13-19 Severe/Heavy Rain threats

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6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Another 1-3 coming late tonight /sunday?

Looks likely now, possibly locally higher as well.

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Through May 13th, ORD only had 0.29" of rain on the month.

After the quick turn around the past few days, ORD is now up to 4.52" on the month.

With the additional expected rain in the coming days, and then a continued wet pattern looking likely to continue next week/next weekend, can probably start looking ahead to wettest Mays on record. It just so happens the record wettest May was just last year in 2019, with 8.25". It will definitely be within reach if this new event works out.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Through May 13th, ORD only had 0.29" of rain on the month.

After the quick turn around the past few days, ORD is now up to 4.52" on the month.

With the additional expected rain in the coming days, and then a continued wet pattern looking likely to continue next week/next weekend, can probably start looking ahead to wettest Mays on record. It just so happens the record wettest May was just last year in 2019, with 8.25". It will definitely be within reach if this new event works out.

lol, incredible

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning south of Jacksonville, IL in northern Greene County.  Thunderstorms have been moving into western Illinois (moving NNE) the last few hours.  Also some good storms (nothing severe yet) northeast and east of STL. 

It wouldn't surprise me if the 2000Z Day 1 extends the Marginal in Iowa to also include parts of MO and possibly most of IL.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
220 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

The National Weather Service in St Louis has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northern Greene County in southwestern Illinois...

* Until 300 PM CDT.

* At 220 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near White Hall,
  moving northeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

* Locations impacted include...
  White Hall, Carrollton, Roodhouse, Patterson, Hillview,
  Walkersville, Belltown, Berdan, Haypress and Barrow.

 

 

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There looks to be a decent minisupercell/tornado threat tomorrow from E IL into N IN and NW OH. Plentiful low-level cape along with good wind profiles should get some spinners going.

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Tomorrow is one of those days where it sort of teeters on a fine line between getting pretty much nothing (tor wise) and quite a few of them.  Have to keep an eye on it for sure.  Looks like there could be some breaks in the precip here and there but definitely don't expect a clean day.  

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On 5/16/2020 at 2:52 PM, Hoosier said:

Maybe you can top the flooding you just saw.  :arrowhead:

Looks quite possible, but unfortunately I won't be in town to see it.

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On 5/16/2020 at 3:08 PM, Hoosier said:

Tomorrow is one of those days where it sort of teeters on a fine line between getting pretty much nothing (tor wise) and quite a few of them.  Have to keep an eye on it for sure.  Looks like there could be some breaks in the precip here and there but definitely don't expect a clean day.  

Given all of the rotating storms currently in E MO/S IL/SW IN...and an even better environment tomorrow...should be able to get at least a few to produce something.

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I did chase C and E IA on Thursday along the warm front. Tracked a monster HP supercell, but it remained like 10 miles north of the front on the cool side. Still, it provided some nasty skies and tried to catch the boundary and wrap up a couple times. The third picture is the closest it got. I will be out for sure tomorrow, and maybe Monday in Ohio if the system slows down even more. FFsWYhp.jpg

JOsh8Af.jpg

cmxOlHW.jpg

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13 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

I did chase C and E IA on Thursday along the warm front. Tracked a monster HP supercell, but it remained like 10 miles north of the front on the cool side. Still, it provided some nasty skies and tried to catch the boundary and wrap up a couple times. The third picture is the closest it got. I will be out for sure tomorrow, and maybe Monday in Ohio if the system slows down even more. 

 

Nice pictures!

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River already the highest it’s been in years. My new home overlooks the Kishwaukee, luckily is high enough to not have any issues.

Another 1-3 is going to cause some major issues 

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3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Well then...

37

That will cause crippling damage to a number of golf courses there. If that were to verify verbatim- that could close the most affected courses for the season. 

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Finally getting around to it, but I also chased the HP supercell in Iowa last Thursday. I never did find my localized area of backed winds, but was bored and needed something to occupy my time so I went out anyways. Storm went up farther west than I thought it would, initiating all the way back by I35, when I was expecting initiation near Oskaloosa or Ottumwa. Arrived on the storm near Melcher Dallas and found it to be OD and sucking strong but cold inflow. This is just how this storm was, and never at any point while I was on it did I think it had any significant tornado potential. Chased it to near Washington, where I let it run over me and went back to catch some rainbow/sunset stuff. Core was far more intense than I was expecting it to be however, and I encountered what I would crudely estimate to be winds in excess of 75mph and some pea size hail. Fun local chase overall. 

 

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84b11619f963b5e5d832b0b9d697b4c6.jpg

 

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In other news, tomorrow looks conditionally fun for some low topped supercell action and perhaps a few tornadoes assuming atmosphere sufficiently destabilizes. Environment is very similar to today's setup in the Arklatex and is reminiscent of classic low topped supercell days.

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New day 1 introduces a slight risk for tornadoes for E IL/W IN.

Quote

..MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION  
 
A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY AND  
INTO IL OVERNIGHT, ENHANCING LIFT AND INCREASING SHEAR WITH 40 KT  
MIDLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND COOLING ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE  
VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING  
FROM CENTRAL IL SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MS RIVER BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THE  
COLD FRONT, A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL EXIST FROM THE LOWER MS  
VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO IL, WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COMMON  
BENEATH 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB WINDS. FARTHER NORTH, A WARM FRONT  
WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESSION ALONG A LINE FROM CHICAGO TO CLEVELAND.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE  
DAY, BOTH IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM  
WESTERN IL INTO MO. GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE  
FRONT, AND STORMS SHOULD SOLIDIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
AS STRONGER CONVERGENCE INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR ROTATING STORMS, AND A FEW MAY  
PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE  
EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS FAVORABLE.  
 
FARTHER SOUTH INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS, LIFT WILL NOT BE AS  
FOCUSED, BUT A MOIST AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE  
SURFACE TROUGH WILL FAVOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. WEAKLY VEERING  
WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE MAINLY OF  
STRONG WIND GUSTS, THOUGH WEAK ROTATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT BENEATH  
25-30 KT 850 MB FLOW.  
 
DAYTIME STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO FORM OVER NORTHERN OH AROUND 18Z  
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. HERE, SBCAPE MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG,  
WITH WEAKLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A  
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO AS WELL.

 

swody1_categorical.png

swody1_tornadoprob.png

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I have a funny feeling about this... like there could be something close by.  Or maybe I'm just tired. 

Does look like low level flow may be more backed in a zone around here compared to farther south.

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19 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Through May 13th, ORD only had 0.29" of rain on the month.

After the quick turn around the past few days, ORD is now up to 4.52" on the month.

With the additional expected rain in the coming days, and then a continued wet pattern looking likely to continue next week/next weekend, can probably start looking ahead to wettest Mays on record. It just so happens the record wettest May was just last year in 2019, with 8.25". It will definitely be within reach if this new event works out.

.56 on the 16th. 5.08

then .61 06-12z  5.69 

2.57 to go...with several hours of moderate rain incoming 

then if they get trained later in any storms they record may fall today

 

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