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Tim from Springfield (IL)

May 13-19 Severe/Heavy Rain threats

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This is going to be pretty important rainfall for London and eastward. Montreal and Ottawa is already dry. They likely won’t see a drop from this system. 

Looking at the radar - I’m taking the under for Kitchener. Last advisory is 1-2 inches (30-60 mm). I’ll say 0.65 inches (20 mm). 

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On 5/15/2020 at 5:25 AM, A-L-E-K said:

Rain is what we do now

 

Yep. And utter BS it is. My CAT-5 bliz during the 3rd week of May in rainer form. May was my fave month but this year has severely tarnished it's image. Horrid cold snow and freezes followed by all this flooding crap. Can it get any worse? (don't answer that)

Here comes my 3+" qpf mega-storm..:axe:

 

20200517 10 am Surf Map.jpg

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Sun is out here in western OH. Not exactly what I was thinking for today, but ok...:huh:

Curious how this impacts the SVR aspects of the day. Not near the best wind profiles by any means but wonder if some extra instability could offset some things.

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No great lapse rates, but other parameters indicate today could produce some tornadoes in the Chi-town to Michiana and northern IN area especially this evening.  Potent upper system heading se over IA.  HRRR  progs dew points well into the upper 60's pooling along the front by this evening.  I agree that today is similar to yesterday in the Arklatex region.  But if the current scattered  clearing in far southern IL and near PAH can progress northward throughout the day and increase insolation we might have some surprises.  Nothing slam dunk but will be a day to watch.

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EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1203 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2020  
  
DAY 1  
VALID 12Z SUN MAY 17 2020 - 12Z MON MAY 18 2020  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON  
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...   
   
..16Z UPDATE  
  
THE AFTERNOON IS SHAPING UP TO PRODUCE AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTH TO  
NORTH BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS, EVENTUALLY MARCHING  
EASTWARD INTO INDIANA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST GIVEN  
SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS / REDUCED HEATING, THE WIND FIELDS ARE IDEAL  
FOR TRAINING, AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SUSTAINED DURING THE APPROACH  
OF AN IMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY,  
PRODUCING FOCUSED 40-50 METER 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH  
TONIGHT. THE 12Z SUITE OF HI-RES MODELS IS UNANIMOUS IN PRODUCING  
SWATHS OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN, INCLUDING ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA,  
WITH POTENTIAL FOR GREATER AMOUNTS WHERE TRAINING BECOMES MOST  
EFFICIENT. THERE IS NOT MUCH SPATIAL SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE  
EITHER, MAKING THIS A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE DAY 1 FORECAST. THIS  
REGION HAS SEEN MANY HEAVY RAIN EVENTS THE PAST TWO WEEKS, WITH A  
FEW AREAS RECEIVING 2 TO 3 TIMES NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THAT  
PERIOD (AND THIS INCLUDES CHICAGO METRO). THE 06Z HREF PRODUCED  
50-60% ODDS OF INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES THIS AFTERNOON, AND WE  
SUSPECT THOSE PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE WHEN THE 12Z HREF PROBS  
ARE AVAILABLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE DOWN TO ONE INCH  
PER ONE HOUR OR 1.50 INCH PER 3 HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS.  
THUS, IN COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICES WE UPGRADED TO MODERATE  
RISK. SOME OF THE FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING UNDER THESE CONDITIONS,  
WITH VERY WET SOIL, COULD LEAD TO HIGHER-END EVENTS SUCH AS WATER  
RESCUES AND WATER INVADING HOMES. ADDITIONAL FORECAST DETAILS ARE  
IN MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSIONS SUCH AS #0211 ISSUED LATE  
THIS MORNING.  
  

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ESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0211  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1148 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...ILLINOIS  
  
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY  
  
VALID 171545Z - 172145Z  
  
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS  
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF CONCERNS AND FLASH  
FLOODING.  
  
DISCUSSION...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SLOWLY OFF  
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY WHICH IS FOSTERING A LARGE  
AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS ILLINOIS. AT 1500Z, AN  
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE-POINT LOW CENTER IS NOTED JUST NORTHWEST OF  
MOLINE, IL WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS  
VALLEY, AND WITH A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW ACROSS  
CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL IN. THROUGH THE MORNING THERE HAVE BEEN  
BANDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST  
ACROSS ILLINOIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGER-SCALE WARM AIR  
ADVECTION PATTERN AND AT LEAST A MODEST NOSE OF INSTABILITY, WHICH  
FOR THE TIME BEING IS LARGER UNIMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES GENERALLY  
UNDER 500 J/KG.  
  
HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING  
FARTHER NORTH, AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLING UP  
ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN  
HEAVIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FACILITATING THIS WILL  
BE THE PRESENCE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KTS AND  
STRENGTHENING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. DYNAMICALLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER  
TROUGH, THERE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON OF A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE OVER CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHICH SHOULD WILL GREATLY ENHANCE VERTICAL  
VELOCITIES GIVEN THE ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE PATTERN  
OVERHEAD. SO, THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS IS EXPECTED TO  
ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WITH  
CONVECTION, AND INCLUDING SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS  
WELL.  
  
PWS ARE GENERALLY 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THESE  
VALUES SHOULD COME UP A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER  
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS, AND THUS THE RAINFALL RATES SHOULD TEND  
TO COME UP A BIT MORE AS WELL. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTIVE  
RAINFALL RATES TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES/HR, WITH THE LATEST 12Z  
HREF SUITE AND HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS THROUGH 21Z OF LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES.  
  
GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS, AND ONGOING RUNOFF  
PROBLEMS, THESE ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHORT-TERM RAINFALL TOTALS ARE  
LIKELY TO RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND CONCERNS FOR FLASH  
FLOODING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR THE MORE URBANIZED  
CORRIDORS, INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA GOING THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON.  
  
ORRISON  
   

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5% tornado probs still maintained in slight outlook this afternoon up and down the length of the IL/IN border region.  Nothing drastic but still similar to yesterday in Arklatex region.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2020  
   
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION  
  
1131 AM CDT  
  
...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING--SOME  
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT--AND A RISK FOR A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES   
EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...  
  
LATE-MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY DEPICTS A REMARKABLY WOUND-  
UP SHORTWAVE SPIRALING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL IOWA WITH A CLEAR WING  
OF INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL MASS DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE DIVERGING  
MID-LEVEL WARM CONVEYOR BELTS. ASSOCIATED ROBUST WARM ADVECTION  
AND INCREASING JET FORCING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THE  
ONGOING PRECIPITATION HAS RESULTED IN GENERALLY ONE HALF TO 1.5  
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE LAST EVENING, WITH SOME LOCALIZED 2+  
AMOUNTS NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF FORD AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES. THIS  
PRECIPITATION LIKELY HAS NEARLY OR COMPLETELY SATURATED THE SUB-  
SURFACE AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT'S FLASH FLOOD EVENT, AND THIS IS  
CORROBORATED BY REPORTS OF RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING ON ROADWAYS  
IN THE LIGHT STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION.   
  
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW APPROACHES OUR LONGITUDE THIS AFTERNOON,  
EXPECT TO SEE A QUICK UPTICK IN UPPER JET SUPPORT IN CONJUNCTION  
WITH A DEVELOPING COUPLED JET AS NOTED ON REGIONAL CROSS SECTIONS.  
THE ATTENDANT AGEOSTROPHIC MASS RESPONSE IS EXTREMELY DEEP,  
THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE, INDICATING  
ROBUST VERTICAL MOTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. ILX'S  
MORNING SOUNDING SAMPLED 1.63" PWATS WHICH HAVE LIKELY ONLY  
INCREASED SINCE THEN. INSTABILITY REMAINS ONE OF THE WILD CARDS  
TODAY, WITH A LACK OF HIGHER MLCAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY LIMITING  
THE TRULY EXTREME RAINFALL RATES. THAT SAID, WARM CLOUD DEPTHS   
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 11 KFT, NOT SURPRISING GIVEN   
THE NEAR-RECORD OR RECORD TERRITORY PWATS, SUPPORTING EFFICIENT   
WARM RAIN AND COLLISION-COALESCENCE PROCESSES. HAVE ALREADY SEEN   
THIS MANIFESTED IN INNOCUOUS-LOOKING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING   
DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO UNDER 1 MILE INDICATIVE OF LOTS OF SMALL   
DROPS. BASED ON RECENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN   
INSTABILITY AND ADDITIONAL GLM FLASHES SHOWING UP, EXPECT A   
GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES INTO THE AFTERNOON.   
  
MEAN CLOUD-BEARING WINDS (850-300MB) MAY REMAIN ORIENTED WITH   
JUST A HINT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY WHICH *SHOULD* HELP  
KEEP SOME FORWARD PROGRESSION OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS GOING.  
THAT SAID, THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD  
OVER SOILS THAT CAN'T HANDLE ANY ADDITIONAL WATER WILL LIKELY  
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. WOULD LIKE TO THINK THAT SOME OF THE 7"+  
AMOUNTS BEING FORECAST BY RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE A BIT  
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF MORE APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY. THAT  
SAID, WE'VE GROWN CONCERNED ENOUGH IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT THAT WE EARLIER  
COORDINATED A "MODERATE" EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK UPGRADE WITH  
THE WPC. THANKS WPC, MKX, IWX, ILX, AND DVN FOR THE COLLABORATION  
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN WINDOW OF CONCERN HERE IS ROUGHLY 2 - 8 PM  
OR SO. NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN MADE THIS  
MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE DEPENDING ON THE WESTERN BOUNDS OF A NARROW  
SWATH OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, A WESTWARD EXPANSION TO INCLUDE  
LEE, OGLE, WINNEBAGO, AND BOONE COUNTIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT.  
  
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL: THE RISK FOR A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES  
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL GAINS IN AT LEAST MODEST  
INSTABILITY ARE REALIZED. THESE ARE ALWAYS HARD EVENTS TO MESSAGE  
AND FORECAST SINCE IT SEEMS LIKE EITHER THESE LOW-TOPPED  
SUPERCELLS SEEM EXTREMELY FICKLE WHEN IT COMES TO INGESTING MORE  
BUOYANT NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY. ILX'S MORNING SOUNDING SAMPLED  
38 KTS OF 0-2 KM BULK SHEAR AND 212 M2/S2 SRH IN THAT LAYER, WITH  
SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED INTO PARTS OF OUR AREA WHICH WOULD SUPPORT  
A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT GIVEN 0-3 KM MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST  
TO PUSH NORTH OF 100 J/KG GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH  
TURNING. CURRENTLY THINK THE MAIN THREAT AREA MAY REMAIN RELEGATED  
TO NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80 AND ROUGHLY EAST OF A PONTIAC TO MORRIS  
LINE DURING THE ROUGHLY 2 PM - 7 PM TIMEFRAME.   
  
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN TRANSMITTED.   
  
CARLAW  

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End date should likely be changed to the 18th with the eastern sub seeing heavy rain and possible severe tomorrow.

Quote

..OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLIANS  
 
A CLOSED UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST SHOULD MAKE ONLY SLOW  
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OVER IL AND VICINITY ON MONDAY. A RELATED SURFACE  
LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY OCCLUDING WHILE SHIFTING TOWARDS  
EASTERN KY/TN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SEPARATE UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER  
THE SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS AL/GA AND VICINITY.  
MODESTLY ENHANCED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PRECEDING BOTH  
UPPER LOWS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY TO THE  
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND NC/SC. LOW TO MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS  
SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OH AHEAD OF  
AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
AND MUTED DIURNAL HEATING DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT  
INSTABILITY FROM OH INTO EASTERN KY. EVEN SO, THE FORECAST  
COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG) AND 25-30 KT  
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT  
ORGANIZATION WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AS  
STORMS FORM INTO SMALL CLUSTERS/BOWS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT A  
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER PARTS OF OH/EASTERN KY WHERE  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER.  
 
SOMEWHAT BETTER DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS. ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS MAY FORM BY  
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL GA AHEAD OF THE  
SOUTHERN-STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW. THESE STORMS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY  
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SC/NC THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHILE  
POSING A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG/GUSTY WINDS CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL DAMAGE. THE LACK OF STRONGER FORECAST  
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THESE REGIONS CASTS DOUBT ON GREATER STORM  
INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION, WITH HIGHER SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES NOT  
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

 

swody2_categorical.png

swody2_tornadoprob.png

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5 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

.56 on the 16th. 5.08

then .61 06-12z  5.69 

2.57 to go...with several hours of moderate rain incoming 

then if they get trained later in any storms they record may fall today

 

.33 more 12-18z at ORD  6.02 month

2.24 needed ....with luck with training could easily break it

but right now in between trains

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1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

.33 more 12-18z at ORD  6.02 month

2.24 needed ....with luck with training could easily break it

but right now in between trains

Could be close, but it looks like the extreme amounts will be in the more densely populated and urban areas closer to the lake (and MDW). 

Thunderstorms are closing in quick on the south side.

codnexlab.NEXRAD_LOT_N0Q.20200517_1939.007ani.thumb.gif.c423e9083d20567b0473d1320c8977ae.gif

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Wind has now become rather gusty from the se here.  Lake wind advisory issued for the lower Wabash River region with gusts up to 30 mph. 72/64

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our basement laundry area is taking on water worse than i can remember in a decade or so in this building

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maybe a small slow near bloomington where that kink is .....that is holding up the train over Will county area

19z HRRR still has 7 inch bullseye there

also models  trending more moist Monday/Tuesday mostly light rain but moderate showers also possible

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very much reminds me of previous tropical remnant events without the former warm core low

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3 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

End date should likely be changed to the 18th with the eastern sub seeing heavy rain and possible severe tomorrow.

 

I updated the end date to Tuesday (May 19) since WPC keeps a Marginal Excessive Rainfall risk for SE IN/S OH into Tuesday in its Day 3 outlook:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=3

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We probably have 1.5 to 2" here at this point. Radar looks like we only have maybe another 30 to 45 mins of rain and then we are done. I think we are good on rain now for the month.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
409 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 409 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER MACON, OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR, MOVING  
  NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  MOUNT ZION AROUND 425 PM CDT.  
  LONG CREEK AROUND 430 PM CDT.  
  DECATUR AROUND 435 PM CDT.  

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Finished with 1.71", and up to 6.23" for May.  Starting to remind me of last May when we received almost 10".

Much of the heavy rain this month has developed east of me.  My May total is only 2.04" after 0.58" overnight.

I have not had a single 1"-in-24-hr rain event this year.

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1 minute ago, Indystorm said:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
409 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 445 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 409 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER MACON, OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR, MOVING  
  NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  MOUNT ZION AROUND 425 PM CDT.  
  LONG CREEK AROUND 430 PM CDT.  
  DECATUR AROUND 435 PM CDT.  

Severe Thunderstorm Watch just also issued in the last few minutes for Eastern Illinois (roughly along and east of US-51, including Decatur) and Western IN.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0192.html

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
421 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2020  
  
ILC115-172145-  
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-200517T2145Z/  
MACON-  
421 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY...  
      
AT 421 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER DECATUR, MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.  
  
THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY.  

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE  
432 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHEASTERN LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  NORTH CENTRAL FORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  NORTHWESTERN IROQUOIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
  EASTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT SUNDAY.  
  
* AT 429 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS   
  PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WARNED   
  AREA. UP TO TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN THE   
  PAST THREE HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN   
  REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF WILL AND COOK COUNTY.   
  FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

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