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Tim from Springfield (IL)

May 13-19 Severe/Heavy Rain threats

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Slight risk for tornadoes just added for SW OH /N KY.

Quote

..OHIO VALLEY  
 
A MOIST PRE-COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL  
KENTUCKY INTO OHIO AHEAD OF THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER  
ILLINOIS. SCATTERED NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING STORMS ARE ONGOING AT  
MIDDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUD BREAKS PRECEDE THIS  
ACTIVITY. MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR  
GRADUALLY STRONGER UPDRAFT INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.  
WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY STRONG (GENERALLY EFFECTIVE  
SHEAR 30-40 KT), MODERATELY STRONG/CURVING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS  
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF TRANSIENT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS/BOWING  
SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES COULD  
OCCUR ASIDE FROM LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

 

swody1_tornadoprob.png

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 193
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   215 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Eastern Kentucky
     Central and Southern Ohio

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until
     900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Bands of storms including a few semi-discrete/embedded
   supercells aside from more prevalent bowing segments will continue
   to increase and organize within a moist environment ahead of an
   eastward-moving cold front.

image.png

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Inside the tornado watch - parameters are much lower than many other tornado watches I've seen.  Maybe 0-3km CAPE is more impressive though.

 

yFQzKKQ.jpg

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27 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Some cold-air funnels being sighted with that tight cyclonic whirl of showers in north-central IL.

Yeah, look at that precip spin.  SPC mentions the chance of non supercell tornadoes in north and central IL area today.

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10 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Yeah, look at that precip spin.  SPC mentions the chance of non supercell tornadoes in the area today.

Danny Neal posted 3 funnel photos on LOT's NWS Chat. Not going to post them here without permission.

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That storm is moving straight for the Columbus metro area.  Fortunately the ingredients today are not the most favorable for anything more than brief tornadoes, but it is always something to watch when a major metropolitan area is downstream from a potentially tornadic thunderstorm.

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17 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

Tornado Warning just SSW of Columbus. Nice little embedded sup in a multi-cell cluster. Radar indicated atm.

Eric Elwell on Spectrum1 said its law enforcement confirmed.

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7 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Eric Elwell on Spectrum1 said its law enforcement confirmed.

I live right by West Jefferson and I saw the rotation just south of me moving northeast. Very cool. I did not see any tornado but that area where it would have been was blocked by a house. The rotation is over West Jefferson right now. 

 

There were also some law enforcement vehicles parked around with their lights on monitoring it-they have moved on now. Just very heavy rain now.

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19 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Eric Elwell on Spectrum1 said its law enforcement confirmed.

May have been able to drop a quick one near Lily Chapel possibly. That was where the couplet seemed the strongest, as well as where law enforcement reported it. Warning cancelled as the storm has gusted out.

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20 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

Total and complete devastation here. Going to pull an all-nighter to try to save my parents basement. Thought installing the sub pump in 2015 would help, but this has overwhelmed it. This is sickening. So f*cking tired of this, year after year...

Basement flooding is a nightmare, I hope everything works out for you. You may want to grab yourself to 2 quality (Zoeller) sump pumps, both Zoeller extraction pumps I have work great.

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32 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

May have been able to drop a quick one near Lily Chapel possibly. That was where the couplet seemed the strongest, as well as where law enforcement reported it. Warning cancelled as the storm has gusted out.

Lilly Chapel is just a few miles south/southeast of where I am. They are showing wires down and a barn destroyed but I have no idea if it is tornado related damage(although the barn looked pretty well demolished.)

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Only 1.45 event total here since Sunday. Been very lucky with no heavy rates with much higher amounts just to my west. 3.5+ since Thursday but so far my basement pump is keeping things from getting out of hand. 

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Took a walk around the neighborhood this afternoon (route 14 and River Rd for those familiar with the Des Plaines area). Remarkably River Rd. is still open, mainly thanks to the higher floodwall that was raised last year. Sharing a few more pics in the link below. Had to compress the attached ones due to size limitations, but the link has a couple from yesterday as well. I can remove link if it is against any of the forum rules. 


https://photos.app.goo.gl/4aK73Wqgv8136xK37P5180804_resize_23.jpgP5180805_resize_6.jpgP5180807_resize_45.jpgP5180816_resize_36.jpgP5180826_resize_48.jpg
 

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Looks like  the IL river at Morris crested at number 2 on record at 24.85

 

05/19 09:30   24.85ft      121kcfs

 

(1) 24.91 ft on 04/19/2013
(2) 24.84 ft on 09/16/2008

 

 

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1 hour ago, chances14 said:

the dams in midland county in mid michigan have been topped and can no longer control the flow of water. :yikes:

https://www.mlive.com/news/saginaw-bay-city/2020/05/midland-county-residents-urged-to-leave-homes-due-to-imminent-dam-failure.html

Rifle river next door in arenac county broke its record that has been on the books since 1950. Its almost 2 feet higher then the previous record.

 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
546 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  THE TITTABAWASSEE RIVER FROM EDENVILLE DAM TO THE SANFORD DAM IN...  
  NORTH CENTRAL MIDLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...  
  
* UNTIL 845 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 544 PM EDT, COUNTY DISPATCH AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED   
  THE FAILURE OF EDENVILLE DAM ON THE TITTABAWASSEE RIVER.  
  
  HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING FROM THE FAILURE OF   
           EDENVILLE DAM.  
  
  SOURCE...COUNTY DISPATCH.  
  
  IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM   
           THE EDENVILLE DAM ALONG THE TITTABAWASSEE RIVER.  
  
* THE NEAREST DOWNSTREAM TOWN IS SANFORD DAM...LOCATED ABOUT 7 MILES  
  FROM THE EDENVILLE DAM. AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EDENVILLE DAM   
  ALONG THE TITTABAWASSEE RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ADDITIONAL   
  FLOODING.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
IF YOU ARE IN LOW LYING AREAS BELOW THE EDENVILLE DAM YOU SHOULD MOVE  
TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. FOLLOW EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED  
BY YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE ACROSS  
FLOODED ROADWAYS.  
  
  
  
LAT...LON 4382 8441 4382 8436 4368 8436 4368 8441  
  
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED  
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE  
DAM FAILURE...OCCURRING  
  
  
  

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Video from youtube of edenville dam failure on wixom lake. Sanford lake dam likely to fail next major evacuations underway in midland mi

Wixon lake is/was about 2000 acres and had depths to 40 feet 

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Absolutely catastrophic event ongoing along the Tittabawassee River, if the Sanford Dam fails it will inundate the city of Midland which is being evacuated, Freeland which is also being evacuated and most of Saginaw.

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9 hours ago, chances14 said:

the dams in midland county in mid michigan have been topped and can no longer control the flow of water. :yikes:

https://www.mlive.com/news/saginaw-bay-city/2020/05/midland-county-residents-urged-to-leave-homes-due-to-imminent-dam-failure.html


Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1216 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

MIC051-191145-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200519T1145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gladwin MI-
1216 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE CEDAR RIVER BELOW THE
CHAPPEL DAM...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM EDT FOR
the Cedar River below the Chappel Dam in SOUTHWESTERN
GLADWIN COUNTY...

At 1212 AM EDT, Emergency Management reported flash flooding is
imminent on the Cedar River below the Chappel Dam.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR areas around the Cedar River
below the Chappel Dam. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding.

SOURCE...Emergency Management.

IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER
         GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water
         crossings, small creeks and streams.

Flood waters are moving down the Cedar River from the Chapel Dam.
All people within this area need to seek higher ground immediately!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 4402 8460 4403 8441 4395 8435 4383 8439
      4382 8460

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

This flood warming is what got me to drive yup there at 12am. It was incredible to see. I stayed a while in edenville on the way back to watch the dam. Very creepy watching it, I didn't check out sanford because I was so tire, but I wonder how that dam looked...


Gladwin was incredibly bad. A lot of the town was under water. Luckily in town I saw a lot of the houses were actually up on hills so I only saw a few with water in them, but man the river was waaaayyy out of its bank through town.

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1 hour ago, outflow said:

Video from youtube of edenville dam failure on wixom lake. Sanford lake dam likely to fail next major evacuations underway in midland mi

Wixon lake is/was about 2000 acres and had depths to 40 feet 

HOLY SHIT! I was there for 2 hrs this morning. I didnt think it would be total failure!

 

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Here is a video of the Sanford Dam failing, 17 mins in the concrete pilings give way and then everything goes over. Trees, pontoon boats, docks, you name it

 

 

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All I can say is wow. I was at Wixom lake and the Edenville dam when it failed. Luckily I was just upstream. Had to still promptly evacuate. I never want to have to be evacuated from a dam failure again. Saw incredible flooding scenes all day across Mid Michigan. Video will of course be coming later. 

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River expected to crest at 38' which is 4' over 500 year flood and 4.1' over the all time record. Whitmer in her press conference earlier this hour said they are expecting downtown Midland to be under 9' of water in 12-15 hours. This is historic and will go down as one of the worst disasters ever in state history.

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