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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

EPS is back to the same old theme of trending warmer from an original 240 hr forecast. That nearly 5SD block over the pole retreats back closer to Siberia. Very impressive Arctic warmth with that feature. So the SE Ridge and 80’s get more room to run north into our area. 

quite a pattern change

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_fh0-240 (1).gif

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

We got all this blocking over the pole because the Uber PV from the winter finally broke down. With no signs of the waters cooling in the tropical pacific it will be very important to have a weak Pv if we want a winter next year.

Well it can't get any worse than the past winter. 

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Today, the temperature rebounded into the 60s after a brisk start. Nevertheless, the first 10 days of May were much cooler than normal in the Northeast. At New York City, the temperature averaged 4.5° below normal.

Another cold front will move across the region tomorrow bringing showers and just a chance of a thundershower. Clouds will likely break during the afternoon.

Generally cooler than normal to much cooler than normal conditions will likely predominate until toward mid-month. Overall, the first 15 days of May could see readings average 4.0° to as much as 6.0° below normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

However, near mid-month, the pattern will likely change bringing about warmer weather, including more frequent days where the temperature is above normal. The second half of May could wind up warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.46°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling during May.

The SOI had an increased tendency for positive values during April. During this month, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could begin to cool.

The SOI was +2.55 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.303.

On May 9, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.517 (RMM). The May 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.406.

The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.0°.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 59degs., or about 2.5degs. BN.

Month to date is  -4.5[55.0].       Should be about  -3.6[56.8] by the 19th.

GFS OP is averaging 67degs., or +3.5degs. for the next 17days, and the GFS ENS is averaging 60degs. or -3.5degs.

51* here at 6am.        55* by 11am.     61* by 4:30pm.         52* by 8:00pm.        49* by 10:30pm.

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12 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well it can't get any worse than the past winter. 

Well not obviously considered winter...to me , getting snow in may made it ALL worth it. Something we'll most likely (at the coast) never see again. If you were to ask me in september if id trade this winter for some may flakes..my answer?

HECK YES. 

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