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Bob's Burgers

April 19th Severe Event

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 Classic hook on HGX. Can't upload image because file size is too big. Took its time didn't it? Looked like it was fizzling for awhile, interacted with another upshear storm, developed new low level rotational foci. Keep your eye on the CC panel. 

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Despite the classic reflectivity presentation, velocity signatures are pretty unimpressive -- especially with the cell only being <40 miles from HGX and at a beam height of ~2.7KFT.

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6 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

 Classic hook on HGX. Can't upload image because file size is too big. Took its time didn't it? Looked like it was fizzling for awhile, interacted with another upshear storm, developed new low level rotational foci. Keep your eye on the CC panel. 

All hook no cattle

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12 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

D2 enhanced up for the Carolinas. Looks like another multi-day event 

Think this is only because of QLCS line coming through Monday AM.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
210 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2020  
  
TXC039-191930-  
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-200419T1930Z/  
BRAZORIA TX-  
210 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR WEST  
CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY...  
      
AT 209 PM CDT, SPOTTERS REPORTED A CONFIRMED TORNADO LOCATED WEST OF   
WEST COLUMBIA, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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 Mesoscale Discussion 0407
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

   Areas affected...southeast TX...southern and central LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 191903Z - 192000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will likely be needed before the
   expiration of tornado watch #120 at 3pm CDT for much of central and
   southern LA.  A local extension-in-time can be utilized for the area
   near Galveston Bay for existing tornado watch #120.

   DISCUSSION...The risk for severe thunderstorms will likely continue
   over the Sabine River Valley through the afternoon.  The airmass has
   destabilized over southern LA according to the 18z Lake Charles
   sounding.  A notable weakness in the flow, evident around 600mb,
   will likely lessen with time as the mid-level shortwave trough over
   the southern Great Plains continues to approach the northwest Gulf
   Coast.  Additional storm activity is expected over LA later this
   afternoon with hail/wind the expected hazards with the stronger
   storms.  The more intense/persistent low-level mesocyclones will be
   associated with a conditional risk for tornadoes.  The 17z RAP
   forecast soundings indicate the most favorable combination of
   enlarged hodographs and instability will focus during the late
   afternoon through the early evening.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 04/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   30819446 31229415 31999306 32229206 31309205 30969170
               30959070 29369118 29629379 30089429 30819446 
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Houston Hobby TDWR showing occasional circulation flare-ups in West Columbia hinting

that a tornado is occurring based upon what is being reported.

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As for those cells northwest of Hattiesburg, the one east of New Hebron is probably the one to watch, being by itself and all.  I definitely do not want to see those smaller cells over Bassfield and Sumrall go severe, given that they are on track to affect areas hit hard by last Sunday's tornadoes (including Soso).

Also keep an eye on that supercell south of Forest, MS.  It has a prominent hook but seems to lack strong rotation at this time.

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Weak TDS on the tornado warned storm in LA. 

 

Edit; much more defined now, likely a TOG there. 

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The lead supercell along the WF in MS dropped what appears to be a trailing OFB, moving SE toward the free storms. Curious to see what the result of this interaction will be...

9E771336-2A63-4476-82BF-69844FDAEC59.png

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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

TDS now on that cell now in central LA

Sure looks like it. Touched down about 8 minutes ago and probably tore up a ton of trees. 

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4 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Despite the classic reflectivity presentation, velocity signatures are pretty unimpressive -- especially with the cell only being <40 miles from HGX and at a beam height of ~2.7KFT.

Jojo, I agree with you, though I lack a crystal ball, ef2+, this ain't/was not striking me as, right now. But there are a few reasons for weak-ish low level radar returns. It's been several years since I took meso and went a different direction since then, so, ya know, I'm rusty, but.. when you have a super classic hook like that, you can get a spin up or two. WSR88ds are great but not infallable. Just like model analysis, and idk why I'm telling you this since you know it better than me, you look at all the data. What's holding it back right now appears to be a lack of singular focus for low level rotation. I'm personally more interested in the development of a meso closer in on the flanking line, not the one that produced the spin up..if something sig were to occur. Environment is there. Again imma preface that by saying I probably don't know what I'm talking about. But I think it'll produce again, and I think nws does too bc they extended the warning. 

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Meanwhile off the LA/MS coast, an interesting SMW.

Quote

Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
210 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...
  Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
  Mississippi River out 20 nm...
  Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
  Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm...
  Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
  Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM...

* Until 345 PM CDT.

* At 209 PM CDT, a wind bore front was located 50 nm east of 
  Pilottown, moving northeast at 50 knots.

  HAZARD...Wind gusts to nearly 50 knots.

  SOURCE...Buoy.
 

 

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7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Weird how strong the TDS looks given the weak couplet present

I'm almost wondering if that isn't a tds actually, or, if it was, wasn't indicative of the size. Could it be straight line winds, some ground based phenomenon, flowering trees all blown up by a small spin up creating unusually strong returns. 

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Just now, Moderately Unstable said:

I'm almost wondering if that isn't a tds actually. 

I think the tornado may have been very short lived, but the debris was on the way up and spread out after it lifted. Vrot was around 36 knots for a few scans in a fairly tight circulation. 

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I'm betting it lofted a bunch of leaves. Plenty of trees in that area and leaves are super easy to lift high.

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12 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said:

I think the tornado may have been very short lived, but the debris was on the way up and spread out after it lifted. Vrot was around 36 knots for a few scans in a fairly tight circulation. 

 

11 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

I'm betting it lofted a bunch of leaves. Plenty of trees in that area and leaves are super easy to lift high.

Ok, yeah that makes the most sense actually, especially if the trees recently leafed and some still have flowers etc. Thanks guys :)

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