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Bob's Burgers

April 19th Severe Event

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19 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Man those high risk rumors are flying tonight on Twitter

Good lord, again? Can’t wait to see all the pissed off people when/if they don’t go high risk. Wx twitter has been a disaster lately. 
 

edit: allegedly was stated on the NWS chat, but nobody has actually verified this...

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Good lord, again? Can’t wait to see all the pissed off people when/if they don’t go high risk. Wx twitter has been a disaster lately. 
 

edit: allegedly was stated on the NWS chat, but nobody has actually verified this...

I mean.... high risk would have absolutely verified last week....

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4 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

I mean.... high risk would have absolutely verified last week....

Just seems silly given the uncertainties with regard to convective evolution and storm mode. Tornadoes WILL happen, but there’s not a well defined corridor imo where the conditional probability would warrant a 30% sig-tor contour.

Seems like it would be issued as a result of recency bias due to last Sunday. 

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Just seems silly given the uncertainties with regard to convective evolution and storm mode. Tornadoes WILL happen, but there’s not a well defined corridor imo where the conditional probability would warrant a 30% sig-tor contour.

Seems like it would be issued as a result of recency bias due to last Sunday. 

Yeah.  I'm not trying to advocate for a HGH risk tomorrow, especially since the setup doesn't look as promising as last week.

However... all that said...

I think NWS is significantly too conservative in much of their predictions.  A lot of people died last week who were out of the MDT risk area.  I sincerely believe we are still years if not decades away from understanding the underlying synoptic conditions that make one event a bust and another an outbreak.  As someone who's spent much of his career attempting to protect people from harm, they take the under on a given day far too often.  I understand there's no easy solution here with respect to being a service who cries "wolf" too often, but it's my sincere belief that giving space to the best possible setup is far more important than trying to play it safe for fear of casting out a high risk on a bust day.

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Messy forecast. Could go either way. High end potential is there. Easy to bust. Some may depend on what you define high risk to be. Technical definition of probability of a tornado within certain distance, vs. large potential area of strong tors, multiple rounds and foci, and two modes (isolated cells, QLCS's). Clearly, going to be an active day for the south. The corrected HREF probabilities are sort of telling--a conservative model showing a very high cumulative risk. Conditionals favor a moderate, at any given time, BUT, overall setup favors a high. The risk at any single point in time may not meet the 30% guideline, but it is possible that the cumulative 24 hour period WOULD justify it. However... bust potential also high. So, do they issue a high tonight, or stay moderate and change it in the AM, as was floated last week but ultimately never done? Beyond the nerd factor, high risks get carried pretty widely across the media. You don't want to play boy who cried wolf, we've seen high profile high risk busts. So before issuing a high, you want confidence that basically sounding your red alert alarm is warranted. People won't pay attention if you overwhelm them with too many warnings. I think, if you're the SPC, given the data, high risk is justified here. It was justified last week too. But it's hard to argue keeping a moderate until the AM. 

 

Edit: Re crying wolf. Here's the thing, this is a philosophy question. The reason you don't over-warn, is because you get warning fatigue. I live in Philly. People DO NOT change their behavior when even a tornado warning is issued. At ALL. "Oh my phone just said there's a tornado warning *proceeds to go outside to go run x errand*". I've seen this a lot. When everything is a severe thunderstorm, nothing is, until it's on top of you and, oops. The public is constantly being distracted with many different stimuli. As with a tornado emergency, you can warn a tornado that may kill people, and is large, with an emergency, or pds warning. Death, however, does not justify issuing an emergency, or a high risk. They are not related concepts. Many things are deadly, and they are not related to probabilities. You can absolutely say, this storm is dangerous and may kill you.  That's quite different from a high risk of someone experiencing that in a given area. And that matters, because if 90% of your warning group sees nothing, they WILL NOT pay attention to the next one, which may NOT be so kind. Does not matter if 10% saw destruction, the 90% do not equate that to mean them. Similarly, tornado emergencies are best used when a big tornado is striking a large population center. A tornado warning, should be sufficient to tell people "take cover". Dixie alley is not a place to use your finite "pay attention to me" ammo, unless you really feel you need to. Otherwise, use a lower tier, and warn the heck out of that. In a nutshell: people dying is not sufficient for high risk (sad to say), and people will die tomorrow. Somewhere, in the south, a storm, in a 24 hour period, will kill someone. We don't know how many, or where. That's the truth. However, you risk more people dying in the future if you warn too strongly, and it doesn't pan out. Hence, this isn't just a forecast question. It's the trolley problem. Next Thursday remains another, uh oh, kind of possibility. Do not use your ammo, before you need to. Given who is writing the outlook, high risk is certainly likely. 

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Not discounting significant tornado potential tomorrow but I'm unsure if high risk probs will verify. Just shocked they're doing it at all esp tonight when we need to see how morning convection evolves. I think a lot of this is because of similar areas impacted. SPC outlooks do have a political aspect to them

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Seeing rumors of high risk upgrade here in Southeast Mississippi for tomorrow. I must say that is a shock. Instability seems to be greater than last week's event, but magnitude of shear seems to be less. While the total number of tornadoes may be lower than last week, the SPC may be thinking a more concentrated area of strong tornadoes is on the table. Color me unexcited. :unsure:

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10 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said:

Next Thursday might be the Coup de grâce for the southeastNo photo description available.

Clicked on a few random point forecast soundings in the warm-sector on the Ukie, and good lord... Feels too far out to talk about specifics, but that'd be ugly. Good thing there isn't too much agreement on what will happen -- for now.

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16 minutes ago, StormySquares said:

How do chasers or public get access to NWS Chat?

Quoting (they don't), bolding mine:

 

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Twitter is entertaining tonight. Apparently BMX talked SPC out of issuing the high risk. Can't confirm anything. Rumor mill a spinning hard tonight. Lol

I just don't get it. 

If we see 60+ tornadoes tomorrow, it's going to be two undersold predictions in a row, all in the name of trying to be careful.

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Given the reference of the greatest threat for a "cluster of tornadoes" in southeast MS to South-central AL, the idea that a high-risk was drawn up seems plausible -- given everything that was being said on twitter. It's all meaningless anyways, the atmosphere does not care what any of us think or say.

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Odd that there isn't even a mention of possible upgrade to HIGH at all...

I dunno... ultimately the risk level is irrelevant (as mentioned above) but was anyone seriously suggesting a high risk until it got “leaked” an hour ago?

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How are you able to get the text and graphics for the new outlook? It’s not even showing up on the spc site yet for me

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Mkay, think this is a sound call. Few thoughts--this isn't wishcasting. There isn't enough confidence here to issue high right now. They can absolutely go high in the AM if they need to. Broad area of SOME risk, different than concentrated area of HIGH risk. Once we see how things shape up in the AM, there will be a better handle on the setup. I'm going to play the reverse card: if tomorrow is a bust, would you rather it was a high risk or moderate? You can always up your warning language, hard to go down. For the public, this will have the same warning language and be communicated effectively, and that's what matters. There is 0 chance anyone who hears about this, in the public, will act differently, because the risk is moderate (aka 4) instead of high (5). They don't know what that means. This is for emergency managers. And they can get the last update in the AM. No one is going to die because a moderate was issued instead of a high. The same person will or will not die. I hope that the rumors I read that Birmingham doesn't want a high period bc this isn't as severe as last week's setup, period, no matter what, isn't true though. That similarly shouldn't have any bearing here. Statistics are statistics. Either your probability is high enough or it isn't. However I'm guessing bc it covers some of the same area, they advocated that lower risk shouldn't be articulated as higher risk. Sigh. 

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