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Everything posted by StormySquares

  1. I think the 12z HRRR redefined what the ceiling may be
  2. I agree. It doesn't feel right that last Wednesday had the same probs as 4/27 or 5/24. This Thursday looks pretty impressive.
  3. For what it's worth a 45% did verify in Alabama. A large high risk area verified for much of central Alabama and eastern Mississippi.
  4. Possible SVC feeding into the Selma storm enhancing tornado potential.
  5. The cells coming into Alabama be I-20 could cause some problems in the next few hours.
  6. Not with the pacific front still back in Texas. It's only 22:30z. Up until this morning the main tornado threat wasn't until after 00z.
  7. The TOG on the Brookewood storm is literally on the 4/27 path.
  8. Area average sounding from the 3kNAM at 02z. Downright scary.
  9. Spann has done a pretty good job of saying the primary threat for Alabama may not be until overnight.
  10. I'm setting up in east Iowa, probably use US 11 to get back across the Mississippi. Hopefully any sups track north of my house (Janesville). Today is conditional but I'm thinking it over preforms, especially if SPC leaves it at slight.
  11. NAM3K doesn't have discrete cells often, but it does Thursday. Most models are showing the slowing trend, Thursday looks to be another severe weather outbreak across Dixie. Pending 00z guidance a day 2 moderate risk is certainly possible.
  12. Really the only model that isn't on board is the GFS, UKMet has been mirroring the NAM for the past couple days.
  13. Is it me or is the 12z Euro almost a copy of the past few NAM runs at 500mb.
  14. The outflow from the northern convection earlier is coming south. If the storm rides it, the tornado threat may continue, but the stable air may cut off surface inflow.
  15. Plenty of trees in MS. The terrain it's going over isn't any different then when the cc hole was very deep.
  16. What would cause the velocity to be this impressive but have the cc hole progressively get less pronounced? Can someone smarter then me answer this?
  17. Looks like the storm behind it may be raining into the updraft, I wonder what that's going to do to the longevity of the tornado.
  18. There's the cc drop. GR2 seems to be having a problem resolving the velocity again. Strong couplet though.
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