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StormySquares

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Everything posted by StormySquares

  1. StormySquares
    Yeah HRRR was dreadful predicting Del Rio area storms tonight. That in house model posted above actually did a pretty good job depicting those TX storms.
  2. StormySquares
    04 HRRR would be the start of a new trend, it's pretty different from even 03z. If 05,06,07,ect continue this, that's a bad look for north central MS/AL
  3. StormySquares
    Well I think we found the ceiling
  4. StormySquares
    Would that clearing in MS between 21 and 00z be where discrete cells form? Maybe it's just not picking it up, it's happened before.
  5. StormySquares
    Just about to post this. Very good write up, worth a read.
  6. StormySquares
    Isn't linear solutions a bias the 3KMNAM has? Should it be taken with a grain of salt?
  7. StormySquares
    I can't imagine the travel ban extends to people who live in mobile homes if a tornado is coming at them. Or why you would yield to the ban in the first place in such an event.
  8. StormySquares
    It's probably fair to say it looks similar to 4/27/11 synoptically but that certainly doesn't equal the same outcome.
  9. StormySquares
    To be clear, a slower/westward trend would be more or less severe?
  10. StormySquares
    Wow 0z Nam is rough. More bullish on the EML and even *more* MLCAPE. Also keeps the large expansion of the risk area. Might be a HOF model run
  11. StormySquares
    4/7/06 was also the only 60 sig tornado risk. I wonder if we would see that ever again.
  12. StormySquares
    It could be possible for a day 2 high risk. I doubt it with this event, but it has happened. Twice I think, 2006 and 2012.
  13. StormySquares
    Something else to watch is warming at 850 and 700 mb between 18z and 0z. This could put a cap in place over much of the warm sector by 0z.
  14. StormySquares
    Recent runs of the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMet have been warmer. How much do you think this would change things?
  15. StormySquares
    It depends on how prolonged the convection is. Much of Tennesee didn't destabilize on 4/27/11 because of prolonged convection. Had it, then the threat area could of reached further north then it did.
  16. StormySquares
    Still some details to work out but severe weather may be returning to the valley this Weekend
  17. StormySquares
    2 inch hail in Jeff City MO
  18. StormySquares
    Ehh 1730z Day 2 outlook is late, by like 15 minutes.
  19. StormySquares
    What should be expected in terms of structure tomorrow? Like would it be easy to see tornadoes from a distance?
  20. StormySquares
    I'm not sure if this has been brought up in the past. If your state is under a stay at home order, is there a good excuse to storm chase if a cop would to ask?
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