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About Chreeyiss

  1. I think something is up with the spc site. I checked it earlier this morning and connective outlooks were starting day 1 as Jan 20th
  2. Unexpected tornado warning in Louisiana, even a brief tds
  3. I don’t think it will be much of an issue. Instability picks up drastically as the dryline approaches this afternoon. That doesn’t mean storms are guaranteed to fire, but any issues won’t be instability driven.
  4. 00z HRRR shows 5,000 uncapped at 21z but doesn’t show any convection in the area, despite really pulling back on coverage in the first round earlier in the day.
  5. This strikes me as one of those events that’s so common around NTX where the models push the dry line too far east and then slowly pull it back west over the 24hours leading up to the event. I suspect the spc and nws have been holding the same opinion, given that the risk area since 2 days ago has been outlined further west than models often depicted. But that doesn’t say much about how severe these will be or not. Definitely have to acknowledge the conditionality of this setup.
  6. I think a portion of whatever makes or breaks tomorrow’s event will come down to if and where outflow boundaries set up as a result of tonight’s convection in Oklahoma. That, and the obvious question of where or if the cap breaks.
  7. Looks more like a broad circulation to me. Not very tight but velocities may be increasing
  8. Couplet is looking weaker. It could be about to cycle and hand off to a circulation to the sw
  9. How are you able to get the text and graphics for the new outlook? It’s not even showing up on the spc site yet for me
  10. What about the Monroe tornado? I remember seeing someone post in here that the couplet was near 200kts at peak. With the lack of attention it seems to be getting I’m guessing the ground truth doesn’t match.
  11. Well at least downtown Atlanta missed the bullet. What has been going on with the NWS in this area? A number of tds’s have been warned late or not at all tonight. Also, new line of storms forming out west. I thought this was supposed to be the last of it. Any tornado potential with those as well?
  12. Couplet intensifying sw of Atlanta
  13. Something may be on the ground north of whitesburg. I can’t even make out a velocity couplet, but there’s a blue/green blob moving ene on cc. Atlanta may need to watch this.
  14. Think we’ll need to keep an eye on the storms moving through Carrollton now, those look like they’ll be the ones headed for Atlanta.