April 19th Severe Event

[jpeters3]

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Imagine (hoping) that the hodographs INVOF the warm front are better than they are in the open warm-sector, because oof...

KPOE:

KLIX:

KMOB:

 

Looks like my toddler drew those profiles...

[MattPetrulli]

6 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Imagine (hoping) that the hodographs INVOF the warm front are better than they are in the open warm-sector, because oof...

KPOE:

KLIX:

KMOB:

 

Yuckie

[jojo762]

2 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Looks like my toddler drew those profiles...

It's kinda of odd, I don't recall any guidance yesterday or the day before showing any hint of low-level or mid-level profiles being this awful.

[Wmsptwx]

Yeah with profiles like that, today is looking less than prolific.

[MattPetrulli]

TDS north of Leesville, LA.

 

[jpeters3]

3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

It's kinda of odd, I don't recall any guidance yesterday or the day before showing any hint of low-level or mid-level profiles being this awful.

Yeah, this is sort of strange.  I remember pulling numerous classic looking low-level hodographs yesterday.

[JasonOH]

Leesville, LA got a TDS. 

[StormySquares]

Looks like a tornado went through Leesville, LA

[jojo762]

Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Yeah with profiles like that, today is looking less than prolific.

Not trying to be over dramatic, but those type of profiles are more consistent with a 5% TOR day, if that... Tornado threat is very minimal in the open warm-sector, probably a bit higher on the warm front, but even then its not significantly higher -- especially with the gross, mostly sub-severe mess ongoing.

Still the chance for a big QLCS threat I suppose, but a more discrete threat probably wont exist for at least the next hour or so...

[MUWX]

Is this the start of the main show? 

[MUWX]

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Not trying to be over dramatic, but those type of profiles are more consistent with a 5% TOR day, if that... Tornado threat is very minimal in the open warm-sector, probably a bit higher on the warm front, but even then its not significantly higher -- especially with the gross, mostly sub-severe mess ongoing.

Still the chance for a big QLCS threat I suppose, but a more discrete threat probably wont exist for at least the next hour or so...

But you can’t say it’s at best a 5% day before the worst of the event is even happened. A couple hours from now the profile could look totally different. 

[WestTennWX]

This is going to get extremely close to the Fort Polk radar site,  if this holds together.

[jojo762]

5 minutes ago, MUWX said:

But you can’t say it’s at best a 5% day before the worst of the event is even happened. A couple hours from now the profile could look totally different. 

 **Current** profiles are awful. As I stated in the next sentence, a more substantial threat could evolve, but it won't if surface winds do not back more, or more cellular elements start to develop along the warm front.

*Current* profiles are more along the lines of a 5% day. Very meh, again, currently.

Even with that newer linear segment in Louisiana, the good majority of that has pushed out an OFB.

[MUWX]

This looks like a very close call for the fort Polk radar 

[janetjanet998]

just like further east...another surface based storm killer outflow boundary is sagging south over Southern MS per JAN radar in wake of the complex over the MS/AL state line

semi discrete storms west of it but the northern 1/2 of those will move north of the boundary , a couple may interact with it and spin up but must turn right to stay in the more unstable air

edit: 3 cells may stay along or just south of this boundary if they move due east

[DanLarsen34]

 

[jojo762]

Some of those more discrete cells popping up in far SW MS are going to be worth watching if they can stay organized...

Looks like they already might have some mid-level rotation.

[Moderately Unstable]

Welp, that couplet is going directly over Fort Polk. I don't remember what the 88ds are rated to withstand. I do recall the dome is several tons, they're doing upgrades on KDIX soon and read a notice a couple weeks back about a crane needed. Who needs a dow truck? Edit: ah I can still see the couplet se of the radar site. Wow that's close.

[WestTennWX]

Trees uprooted and a roof blown off a home reported in Leesville, couplet appeared to pass directly over town.

[rnj79]

12 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

 

I'm curious as to how far south that line will build as it nears me in Baton Rouge...

[janetjanet998]

two mini hooking cells over SE GA both T-storm warned tagged tornado possible

but they are just north of an outflow boundary

the 2nd one may be trying to suck the boundary back in

[Calderon]

3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

two mini hooking cells over SE GA both T-storm warned tagged tornado possible

but they are just north of an outflow boundary

the 2nd one may be trying to suck the boundary back in

Good thing the second cell didn't latch onto the OFB and produce because it went through a highly commercialized and residential section of Valdosta.

[SluggerWx]

Hattiesburg could be under the gun in a couple hours. That cell on the MS/LA border looks potent.

If you look at GOES-16, three storm cells on the SW border of MS and LA show pretty explosive over the last 30 minutes.

[janetjanet998]

 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0540 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST  
MISSISSIPPI  
  
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121...122...  
  
VALID 192240Z - 200045Z  
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 121, 122 CONTINUES.  
  
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY. A SQUALL LINE IS BECOMING MORE WELL DEFINED WITH DAMAGING  
WINDS AND TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE AS THE MAIN THREATS.  
  
DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A COLLOCATED MESOLOW. STRONG  
DEEP-LAYER MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN 50+ KNOTS OF  
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND MLCAPE OF 2500+ J/KG PER ARE DEVELOPING AND  
MAINTAINING DEEP, ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE LINE IS ORIENTED MOSTLY  
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST, BUT IT HAS SHOWN EVIDENCE OF SEGMENTS BECOMING  
MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED, WHICH WOULD CREATE MORE PERPENDICULAR  
FLOW AND INCREASE THE DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. MESOVORTICES  
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SOME OF THESE MORE NORTH-SOUTH SEGMENTS WITH  
TORNADO POTENTIAL HIGHEST NEAR THE MESOLOW IN OTHERWISE VEERED  
SURFACE FLOW. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTERLY  
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL  
JET INCREASES.  

[mob1]

Pretty strong rotation for that TW'd storm entering Needham AL. 

 

 

[Amped]

9 minutes ago, SluggerWx said:

Hattiesburg could be under the gun in a couple hours. That cell on the MS/LA border looks potent.

If you look at GOES-16, three storm cells on the SW border of MS and LA show pretty explosive over the last 30 minutes.

That southernmost cell needs to be watched carefully.

[mob1]

The tornado warned storm in Western Alabama has the strongest rotation of any storm so far today, though it doesn't look like it'll go through much for now. 

[janetjanet998]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0552 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA  
  
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 123...  
  
VALID 192252Z - 200015Z  
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 123 CONTINUES.  
  
SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF  
WW123.  
  
DISCUSSION...EARLY-DAY CONVECTION THAT SPREAD ACROSS GA HAS FORCED A  
WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY SOUTH AND A BIT WEST ARCING ACROSS WW123.  
LATEST SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THIS WIND SHIFT EXTENDS FROM HENRY -  
BUTLER - MARENGO COUNTIES IN AL, IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A SURGING  
SQUALL LINE. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AN MCV HAS EVOLVED ALONG THE  
NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE THAT IS SURGING EAST IN  
EXCESS OF 45KT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
WARM SECTOR, POSSIBLY DUE TO SOMEWHAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  
WHILE THE AIR MASS HAS WARMED ACROSS SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHERN AL,  
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERN WILL BE ALONG THE  
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR UPSTREAM  
CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE ALONG. WHILE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE REMAINS  
LINEAR WITH CLUSTERS, STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS;  
ALTHOUGH, THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE ACROSS THE  
WARM SECTOR WHERE STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP.  
  
..DARROW.. 04/19/2020  

[WestTennWX]

11 minutes ago, Amped said:

That southernmost cell needs to be watched carefully.

Good call....Tornado warned now

[Snowstorm920]

2 minutes ago, WestTennWX said:

Good call....Tornado warned now

The environment that cell is in is very favorable for strong to violent tornadoes