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Bob's Burgers

April 19th Severe Event

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Just now, geddyweather said:

Hoping it splits the middle between Purvis and Hattiesburg. Gonna be close. There is both an industrial area and a residential subdivision there NW of Purvis on Maps.

don't forget about Camp Shelby in between

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Tornado Warning
MSC035-073-200115-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0044.200420T0044Z-200420T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
744 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Forrest County in southeastern Mississippi...
  East central Lamar County in southeastern Mississippi...

* Until 815 PM CDT.

* At 744 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located near Baxterville, or 15 miles southwest of West
  Hattiesburg, moving east at 55 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
  Mclaurin around 805 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3109 8939 3127 8938 3131 8915 3112 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 258DEG 49KT 3115 8954

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

DC

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I wonder what's going to be left of the Hattiesburg area after this tornadic storm. the downtown and north side of town is looking at golf ball hail and high winds, the south side, including the airport, is looking they're about to get blasted with either the tornado itself or a pretty nasty inflow wind into this tornado. good luck to them in these next few minutes

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Just now, Jim Marusak said:

I wonder what's going to be left of the Hattiesburg area after this tornadic storm. the downtown and north side of town is looking at golf ball hail and high winds, the south side, including the airport, is looking they're about to get blasted with either the tornado itself or a pretty nasty inflow wind into this tornado. good luck to them in these next few minutes

I noticed they were betting blasted by hail as well.  Interesting, there wasn't much in the way of large hail with last week's storms.

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Just now, Buckeye05 said:

TDS is gone now, and velocity signature has fallen apart. Doubt anything is on the ground at this point.

Yeah, luckily it’s gone.

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Definitely some good news as this storm approaches the I-59 corridor.  But this storm could be cycling and has taken somewhat of a left turn.  Could spell trouble for the southernmost parts of Hattiesburg (US-98 corridor) if this storm is only cycling.

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2 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

I noticed they were betting blasted by hail as well.  Interesting, there wasn't much in the way of large hail with last week's storms.

If I had to guess, looking at the echo tops, these storms probably have stronger updrafts than last week. That would make some sense, we aren't lacking instability. Last weeks storms had more spin and low level shear, but updraft strength wasn't as strong (iirc). Also, what we define as "a lot" is subjective. I haven't seen a "lot" of anything today. A lot of crudvection, yes. 

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Just now, Moderately Unstable said:

If I had to guess, looking at the echo tops, these storms probably have stronger updrafts than last week. That would make some sense, we aren't lacking instability. Last weeks storms had more spin and low level shear, but updraft strength wasn't as strong (iirc). Also, what we define as "a lot" is subjective. I haven't seen a "lot" of anything today. A lot of crudvection, yes. 

I agree, I think the updrafts are stronger today.  More instability, slightly higher tropopause.

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10 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

Tops still over 50,000 feet, don't think she's dying yet.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 

55k actually. It is entraining air from other storms and isn't staying discrete. As with most supercell structures, when a well defined structure like this crashes into another storm, it makes a mess. If it sorts that out, it has plenty of energy and space to produce. Couplet never really went away, but it is far from the radar. Beam height at the couplet is centered at 6.2k feet. Strong rotation, if it follows a typical sig tor tornadic supercell pattern, it will produce again. More a question of how strong, how long, and what does it do with the other cells in the area. That last one was pretty serious, and we will hear about problems from that one later. Does this go on to now put down an EF0, or does it keep it together and drop another 3? Outflow dominance has been the theme of the day. 

Screenshot_20200419-210902_RadarScope.jpg

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0801 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2020  
  
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN  
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND  
SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
A SEVERE-WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FROM SOUTHERN  
MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL  
GEORGIA.  MULTIPLE EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN  
TORNADOES WITH SOME POSSIBLY STRONG, WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, AND  
LARGE HAIL.  
   
..LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS  
  
TWO CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. THE  
FIRST IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED  
JUST TO THE WEST OF AND ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL  
JET. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS EVENING AS SHEAR  
RAMPS UP ACROSS THE REGION. IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, SURFACE DEWPOINTS  
ARE NEAR 70 F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE HEAR 2000 J/KG ACCORDING  
TO THE RAP. IN ADDITION, THE WSR-88D VWP NEAR DOTHAN, ALABAMA SHOWS  
0-6 KM SHEAR OF 65 TO 70 KT WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY NEAR  
320 M2/S2. THE SURFACE WIND IS FROM DUE SOUTH AND THE LOWEST 1 KM  
AGL IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS  
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES THIS EVENING. A POTENTIAL FOR  
STRONG TORNADOES WILL LIKELY EXIST. THE CONVECTION THAT REMAINS  
LINEAR WITHIN THE COMPLEX, SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WIND  
DAMAGE. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS AND THE MORE  
ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS. THIS COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO MOVE  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO  
SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH A SEVERE THREAT  
CONTINUING.  
  
FURTHER WEST, THE SECOND CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS  
ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED JUST  
TO THE NORTHEAST OF A MAXIMUM IN INSTABILITY. THE RAP IS SHOWING A  
BULLSEYE OF MLCAPE IN THE 3000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE IN SOUTHEAST  
LOUISIANA. JUST DOWNSTREAM, THE MOBILE WSR-88D VWP HAS A 0-6 KM  
SHEAR NEAR 65 KT WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL. IN  
SPITE OF A VEERED SURFACE WIND, 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS  
NEAR 550 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.  
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SUPERCELLS THAT ARE  
DOMINANT. LARGE HAIL WITH HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN  
DIAMETER MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. A WIND DAMAGE  
THREAT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS AND THE MORE ORGANIZED LINE  
SEGMENTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  
  
LATER TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA  
COAST. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL-LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE EASTERN  
CAROLINAS. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE  
LINE SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE.  
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  

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Just now, Chinook said:

what is even happening inside this very wide circulation?

bWDc9gL.png

We've got sisters.

Sorry, watched Twister with the kids today.

But, that's what it looks like to me.

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There's a big time flash flood threat behind this supercell.  It's dumping a ton of rain and more storms are popping along the OFB behind it and training along the path.  I expect some really bad flooding to occur tonight.

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Just now, JasonOH said:

There's a big time flash flood threat behind this supercell.  It's dumping a ton of rain and more storms are popping along the OFB behind it and training along the path.  I expect some really bad flooding to occur tonight.

I was just posting the same thing as you ninja'd me  :lol:  At least 6" so far and counting as the storms are training along 

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