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Bob's Burgers

April 19th Severe Event

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Just now, Snowstorm920 said:

The environment that cell is in is very favorable for strong to violent tornadoes 

 

63B63A69-083E-4100-A0C0-FB179275F86D.gif.8dafa81a91af42d1f8dedc146b1e244a.gif

Not sure.  The KLIX profile looks pretty crappy.

02dc514fc3b7dd4522d459c44b8bef33.png

 

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Convection throughout the day has limited both the mobility of the front and scope of this outbreak. Honestly this is all probably a good thing after the devastation we saw on Easter

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2 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Convection throughout the day has limited both the mobility of the front and scope of this outbreak. Honestly this is all probably a good thing after the devastation we saw on Easter

And will make for good educational comparisons.....at least up to this point in time.

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1 minute ago, Snowstorm920 said:

That shows only 27 knots of 0-3km SRH while the SPC meso page has the cell sitting in an environment with almost 400 0-3 SRH. Small difference 

The difference between actual obs from VWPs and model (in this case RAP) forecasts is remarkable..

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This could be a strong tornado in western Alabama, but the radar is not very close to this. I do not see evidence of a TDS on the CC scan.

9SI9oLW.png

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Strong tornado? With those wind profiles? Yeah, good luck. They're a lot worse than the forecasted wind profiles. Less aircraft observations looks like it definitely had an impact on forecasting this event.

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6 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Convection throughout the day has limited both the mobility of the front and scope of this outbreak. Honestly this is all probably a good thing after the devastation we saw on Easter

Moreof really crappy wind profiles

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3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

The difference between actual obs from VWPs and model (in this case RAP) forecasts is remarkable..

Ya there’s definitely something going on the modes aren’t catching. Be interesting to see how things evolve tonight. Some short range models are showing the environment becoming increasingly favorable for tornadoes as the night goes on  

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1 minute ago, Snowstorm920 said:

Ya there’s definitely something going on the modes aren’t catching. Be interesting to see how things evolve tonight. Some short range models are showing the environment becoming increasingly favorable for tornadoes as the night goes on  

While wind profiles look good overnight on the mesoscale models, they've been so far off till now that it's hard to know for sure. 

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KMOB VWP has improved some, hodograph is still kinda junky looking but it now exhibits >250m^2/s^2 0-1KM SRH... Imagine the LLJ is probably starting to get cranking. Might increase the tornado potential some, but it's not going to increase dramatically in areas with SW SFC winds.

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the shallow backdoor outflows have really squeezed the warm sector south...I still think the lack of strong surface flow pushing back on the outflows allowed this

HRRR says the warrm sector never makes it to SC expect perhaps the extreme SE coast

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7 minutes ago, Chinook said:

This could be a strong tornado in western Alabama, but the radar is not very close to this. I do not see evidence of a TDS on the CC scan.

9SI9oLW.png

That is not a tornadic signature, let alone a strong one.

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Supercell south of McComb, MS has started to deviate and detach from the convection to its north. Probably seeing the storm of the day evolve.

Obs in front of this storm exhibit local backing with a mix of southeast, south, and south-southwest surface winds observed downstream.

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SPC talks about that outflow boundary i mentioned messing things up for the northern cells but is eyeing the southern one

 

 

 

CUS11 KWNS 192338  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 192337   
MSZ000-LAZ000-200030-  
  
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0637 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA  
  
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121...122...123...  
  
VALID 192337Z - 200030Z  
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 121, 122, 123 CONTINUES.  
  
SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR FOR HIGHER TORNADO POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS FAR  
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA SOUTH  
OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS MOVING ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY  
WILL ENCOUNTER STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  
  
DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH FROM CENTRAL  
MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW  
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN  
LOUISIANA IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO, BUT HAVE NOW MOSTLY CONGEALED INTO  
A CLUSTER DUE TO UPSCALE GROWTH AND THE SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN STORM IS STILL EXHIBITING SUPERCELL  
CHARACTERISTICS AND HAS SHOWN MESH VALUES OF 1+ INCH ALTHOUGH  
CONVECTIVE INTERFERENCE HAS WEAKENED IT SOMEWHAT. SURFACE WINDS NEAR  
MCB AND EASTWARD HAVE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST INDICATING POTENTIALLY  
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL HELICITY, WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT.  
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE  
INTERFERENCE AND THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD CONTINUE SLIDING  
SOUTHWARD.  
  

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3 minutes ago, StormySquares said:

Tylertown is in trouble

Eh... Storm is still organizing. Rotation is still kind of broad.

It's having to fight off a lot of junkvection.

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9 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Eh... Storm is still organizing. Rotation is still kind of broad.

It's having to fight off a lot of junkvection.

Yeah it’s not real organized at all.

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Tylertown storm is really improving its presentation.  Hook is becoming evident and the inbounds (outflow) are ramping up like the outbounds (inflow) have been the last few scans

 

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