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Hoosier

April 15-17 Snow

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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Probably, but questionable on how much.

Going to be nice FGEN and strong LLJ aiming into that region, just as the wave is maxed out.


.

Max will be 14" is my guess.

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The NAM has some pretty insane frontogenesis and omega overall in Iowa before weakening with eastward extent.  Hopefully that can hang on longer so we get a long band of 10+.  Might as well go all out to close out the winter.

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6 hours ago, Stebo said:

Don't use 10:1.

 Yesterday's 1.4" of snow here actually melted down to exactly 0.14" of water.  One of the rare times exactly 10:1 actually happened. Of course, realistically during the heaviest rates it was probably a little better than 10:1 and then in the slower rates a little bit of QPF was wasted

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anticipating another overperformer....but you can keep the tree snapping 6-8" amounts south of here. 

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ready 2 b buried

feels like an over performer to me too but obv jelly about the IA jackpot zone, that is going to be an incredible 1'+ spring cement event

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Already 2-6” of snow overnight in S. IA with the lead wave.

20” definitely within the realm of possibility there now.


.

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3-5" in south-central Iowa and the storm really hasn't even started, yet?  *sigh*  The Des Moines NWS was only expecting an inch or less.

My biggest snowfall this winter was only 4.x" and it takes the world's biggest storm just to drop 8 inches here.

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For local purposes, one of the negatives that has crept in is slower timing.  This extends a bit more precip into the late Fri morning timeframe when the sun angle will be a factor as precip rates decrease from what they will be earlier on.  

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3 hours ago, RyanDe680 said:

Meh.  South is the trend

 

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

P confident we see some nice northern fgen banding up to at least 88

I'm actually on-board with the thought that it ends up further north than some guidance shows.

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51 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

 

I'm actually on-board with the thought that it ends up further north than some guidance shows.

Looks like some of the latest hrrr/rap runs are correcting a bit north. Obs look good as well in support of this 

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First winter storm warning of the season here. Is this going to be the storm that finally beats the Halloween snow for the #1 spot??

In the past 3 years, I've had 3 winter storm warnings and 1 blizzard warning. Only one of those occurred during met or solar winter!! None of them were preceded by a watch. (winter weather advisory is the new winter storm watch, change my mind). I certainly don't envy the meteorologists at this point, trying to pinpoint a thread the needle event with insane cutoffs in accumulation.

Everything about this is so incredibly absurd. How can this much snow be possible in April at 40°N and sub 1000ft elevations? Why do the thermal parameters struggle all winter but seem to line up just 2 months before solar maximum??? I don't like cold springs, but this is too wild and I hope I get crushed by the death band here. My weakest plants were probably already killed off in the snow yesterday.

For those that need yet another model to fret over, the HRRRv4 is now live on the College of DuPage site.

wtfagain2.thumb.png.c3359759c3ebba2661748dd2ae90e8cb.png

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Nice returns in northeast KS, which will feed the snow area more with time.

Would rather be about 30 miles south of where I am.  I guess I could use some of the Chicago Storm optimism.

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Just now, Chicago WX said:

Can’t say I hate my spot for this one. Slight tick north would be cool too.

Gonna be a sloppy work day for you.  :snowing:

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Can’t say I hate my spot for this one. Slight tick north would be cool too.

Feels good. Beautiful day today as well.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Can’t say I hate my spot for this one. Slight tick north would be cool too.

You're golden for now.

Any bump north could be no bueno.

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nice returns in northeast KS, which will feed the snow area more with time.

Would rather be about 30 miles south of where I am.  I guess I could use some of the Chicago Storm optimism.

And it's high confidence optimistic that it ends up a bit north of most guidance too.

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Lawn fresh off the first cut. Having the windows cleaned for the first time in 4 years. (outside only, of course)....bring it.

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11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

And it's high confidence optimistic that it ends up a bit north of most guidance too.

giphy.gif.0e5fcb140384151f86583ad08caf3bef.gif

 

I did notice there seems to be better returns than progged out in northern Nebraska, but nothing really stood out as far as the main band running farther north.  Where would you put the northern edge of the 6" area in the LOT cwa?

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

giphy.gif.0e5fcb140384151f86583ad08caf3bef.gif

 

I did notice there seems to be better returns than progged out in northern Nebraska, but nothing really stood out as far as the main band running farther north.  Where would you put the northern edge of the 6" area in the LOT cwa?

If we see 6" totals that far east (Obviously depends on how quickly things dampen with east extent), I would say into S Cook Co.

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IWX just expanded the Winter Wx Advisory to include its Michigan counties. Calling for 2-5 in Michigan counties. 3-6 south of there and 4-7 further south of that. 

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

And it's high confidence optimistic that it ends up a bit north of most guidance too.

Bring on the mood flakes

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