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Hoosier

April 15-17 Snow

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A couple of systems look to move through the region.  A minor one on the 15th with potential for a more significant one on the 16th-17th.

The system on the 16th-17th looks like it could have the potential for a band of at least a few inches, if not more.  One thing to keep in mind is that the lead-up will be unusually chilly for this time of year, so while accumulation efficiency won't be perfect, it could be a little better than you'd think.  The timing also looks pretty favorable with eastward extent in IL/IN/OH/possibly MI, with more of a Thursday evening-Friday morning occurrence.

 

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DAB probably for both events for affected areas.

Not surprisingly, the trend has been downward as time has gone on.

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

DAB probably for both events for affected areas.

Not surprisingly, the trend has been downward as time has gone on.

Agree. The models overdid moisture on the last storm right up to the last minute, something they were consistently guilty of all winter.  Anecdotally, my "heavy rain" turned into 0.16" over two days. Granted, it may be comparing apples to oranges (Convection-robbing moisture throughout the south with the last system), but it has been a constant theme.

 

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:yikes:

Chris at IWX isn't ready to buy what the GFS is selling........yet.

WITH COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION, MODELS HAVE BROUGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR 
LATE WEEK. THEY ALSO HAVE VARYING AMOUNTS OF PHASING WITH THE GFS 
SHOWING MORE PHASING AND, AS A RESULT, HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THAN THE 
EC/CMC. WILL CONTINUE SIDING AWAY FROM THE GFS FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER 
CONFIDENCE COMES IN FOR THIS PERIOD. 

If that map would happen to verify, it would be the ultimate in stat padders for the D- winter of 2019-'20.

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53 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would be some work to find out but I wonder how often central IL outsnows northern IL after April 15.

Not just after April 15th. Try seasonal totals. Springfield 30.4" vs ORD 30.1"

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53 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Not just after April 15th. Try seasonal totals. Springfield 30.4" vs ORD 30.1"

Did a partial look at data and found that Springfield finished with more snow than Chicago about 20% of the time.  I only looked at 20 years of snow data for the 2 cities though so unsure if that percentage would be similar all the way through the entire period of record.  

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21 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Let's nudge it a bit north.

You can have it. Nudge it north 150 miles.

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3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

You can have it. Nudge it north 150 miles.

C'mon, I'll take it.  I got nothing else to do, might as well stat pad a dismal winter with a miserable spring lol.  :weenie:

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This would be such a cursed way to end the 2019-2020 snow season as it would finally dethrone Halloween for the biggest snow of the season IMBY. Seems totally ridiculous, but the past two Aprils have brought significant snows to my area so I'm not ruling out a couple inches of snow here.

cursedapril.png.af7e40dc6056606ef51b21ad5319e866.png

HRRR is showing some convective now over northern IL/WI today too

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I was wondering if 4/10/1997 would show up as one of the analogs at some point.  Sure enough, it is on CIPS.

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2 hours ago, fluoronium said:

This would be such a cursed way to end the 2019-2020 snow season as it would finally dethrone Halloween for the biggest snow of the season IMBY. Seems totally ridiculous, but the past two Aprils have brought significant snows to my area so I'm not ruling out a couple inches of snow here.

Yeah, facebook just reminded me that we had a big snowfall here one year ago today. It was annoying then, and it'd be annoying now. I'm in spring mode, so I want this waste of a winter behind me. I resent stat-padding that'll make this awful winter look better than it was.

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44 minutes ago, Crispus said:

Yeah, facebook just reminded me that we had a big snowfall here one year ago today. It was annoying then, and it'd be annoying now. I'm in spring mode, so I want this waste of a winter behind me. I resent stat-padding that'll make this awful winter look better than it was.

I welcome it further north. Ive had a lot of spare time on my hands being couped up inside, so ive been perusing old weather data and newspaper stories for Detroit but also Chicago. Looking at past data is fascinating as always, and shows how most seasons have ups and downs. Most years, looking at the total snowfall or mean temp doesnt do the season justice (be it in a good or a bad way). Ive never been a fan of the term stat padding, but when I look at old data (ie, its ALWAYS been around and can apply to most seasons), I hate the term even more lol.

 

Its interesting to hear you refer to this winter a a waste and awful down there....as both snowfall and snowcover were well above avg lol.

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I'd have to dig into this more to be sure but I suspect this has a shot to be the biggest snow this late in the season in 40 years or more where the main band occurs.  There was a pretty big snow in mid April 1980 that mostly stayed west of IN/OH.  So for some of those areas you may have to go back to the 1950s or 1960s.

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45 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

18z NAM took a healthy jump north.

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

sn10_acc.us_ov12.png

NAM long range volatility. Will probably hedge back south

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16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd have to dig into this more to be sure but I suspect this has a shot to be the biggest snow this late in the season in 40 years or more where the main band occurs.  There was a pretty big snow in mid April 1980 that mostly stayed west of IN/OH.  So for some of those areas you may have to go back to the 1950s or 1960s.

The 1980 snow was actually a couple days earlier in the calendar.

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Not entirely out of the question that there could be some lake enhanced precip around northeast IL/northwest IN.  Delta T and inversion heights look sufficient enough to get that going.  The trade-off is that lake temps are well into the 40s now and onshore flow should result in slightly warmer temps near the lake, so because of that and the overall marginal setup, it probably won't actually add anything to the totals.

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