2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Calderon]

15 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Link just shared with me of "live" conditions in the eyewall from Nick Panico (he's not there, himself):

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/ProfeciasMundiales/videos/401497981040549/

 

 

That's footage from Typhoon Sinlaku hitting Taiwan in 2008, just really zoomed in on a small truck from Earth Uncut TV's YouTube channel.

[DownpourDave]

2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

With nothing showing on any global models now, it looks like the season may be a wrap.  Quite a crazy season.  I think the most impressive stat is out of the 13 hurricanes, 10 made landfall at or near maximum intensity.

famous last words dude. Do not jinx it. 

[dan11295]

Ultimately the WMO makes the final call on TC naming conventions for the N. Atlantic basin, even though the NHC can suggest changes. That said it is time to serious reconsider the use of Greek names and the lack of ability to formally retire them. Zeta, Eta & (probably) Iota would all normally be fairly strong contenders for retirement, with Delta probably being less likely. I know its unlikely the Greek names would be used very othen, but you wouldn't want the (small) chance you have another Hurricane Eta in a Caribbean in a couple of years.

[ncforecaster89]

2 hours ago, Calderon said:

That's footage from Typhoon Sinlaku hitting Taiwan in 2008, just really zoomed in on a small truck from Earth Uncut TV's YouTube channel.

Thanks for pointing that out.  I should’ve taken a few minutes to look at the video before sharing it, but I trusted it was real.  Will never understand why people do such dishonest things.  After viewing it, it’s obvious it’s a loop of the same footage being run repeatedly.   That aside, James captured great video on that Typhoon you mentioned.  

[Orangeburgwx]

Shit... Dammit Kappa wants to join the fraternity

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

[A777]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Thankfully, "Marco" turned out to be a big ol' nothingburger (it was supposed to be part of the much-ballyhooed "double trouble" of late August), so the call-and-response can possibly occur again in 2026.

[Prospero]

I've been saying for a few months that we in the Tampa Bay area won't consider ourselves out of the woods until Thanksgiving. Granted Eta was a visitor and I look forward to some time this week to finish cleaning up.

But maybe the season is over for us.

[RT1980]

11 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I've been saying for a few months that we in the Tampa Bay area won't consider ourselves out of the woods until Thanksgiving. Granted Eta was a visitor and I look forward to some time this week to finish cleaning up.

But maybe the season is over for us.

So in your opinion where is the threat coming from?

[Prospero]

32 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

So in your opinion where is the threat coming from?

I don't see any threats looming. 2020 has been quite a year, but I am not concerned about any tropical threats right now for us.

Waiting for cold fronts to come down and give us rain now...

[yoda]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t think we’ve ever had a December landfall? 

In the United States I dont believe so 

[Windspeed]

[yoda]

Barring a last second storm... I think we can close the books on this record hurricane season and actually turn out the lights... finally lol

[DownpourDave]

13 hours ago, yoda said:

Barring a last second storm... I think we can close the books on this record hurricane season and actually turn out the lights... finally lol

Kappa is the next storm on the list. Looks like there is a good chance for "subtropical storm kappa" out in the open Atlantic. NHC currently has 30% odds through 5 days.  It would be appropriate if we ended the season on Kappa to "cap off" the hurricane season. 

[Windspeed]

I think last Tuesday's outlook was a wrap on the 2020 season folks!

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
955 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between 
the Madeira Islands and the Azores.  This system has become less 
organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are 
expected to become less conducive for development as the system 
moves southwestward during the next day or two.  Although 
subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue 
to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira 
Islands and the Azores through Wednesday.  Additional information on 
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo 
France. 

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on 
this system.  Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
be issued as necessary during the off-season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO 
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Beven

 

[Windspeed]

Worth pointing out that Central America was hit very hard and we shouldn't forget that. Though Louisiana was certainly beat up this season, the US still has the resources to mitigate and assist our fellow citizens. We shouldn't forget them either. That being said, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua and the SW Caribbean were already struggling. Millions of of people are suffering there economically. Now we have a humanitarian crisis as many localized regions are currently devastated. This was a horrific hurricane season.

[DownpourDave]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Worth pointing out that Central America was hit very hard and we shouldn't forget that. Though Louisiana was certainly beat up this season, the US still has the resources to mitigate and assist our fellow citizens. We shouldn't forget them either. That being said, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua and the SW Caribbean were already struggling. Millions of of people are suffering there economically. Now we have a humanitarian crisis as many localized regions are currently devastated. This was a horrific hurricane season.

Pretty cool that the season ended with a bang (literally). 

[cptcatz]

Andrew was a cat 5 but I can't think of any other A-named cat 5's meaning that's the only season that opened with a cat 5.  Has any other season other than 2020 ended with a cat 5?

[Prospero]

3 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Andrew was a cat 5 but I can't think of any other A-named cat 5's meaning that's the only season that opened with a cat 5.  Has any other season other than 2020 ended with a cat 5?

Which makes me curious, what letters have had the most Cat 5's?

 

[Prospero]

4 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Andrew was a cat 5 but I can't think of any other A-named cat 5's meaning that's the only season that opened with a cat 5.  Has any other season other than 2020 ended with a cat 5?

Allen - 1980

Andrew - 1992

Anita 1977

[Prospero]

"C" has had five, but all but four were before 1960 counting 45 years of storms ("Cuba" 1924 to Camille 1969).

"I" and "M" are tied with four each within the last 22 years.

Letter "I" had four in 17 years (Isabel in 2003 to Iota in 2020).

"M" has had four in 20 years (Mitch in 1998 to Michael in 2018).

Basically from the 7th to the 14th storms of the are the ones that become Cat 5s in the last couple decades.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes

 

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

How many storms next year, 17-20? It looks like we will be leaning El Nino, at least in April-May so...

[Chinook]

171% vs 58% vs 50%

 

 

 

[dan11295]

How many years has the Atlantic have more ACE then the WPAC? Can't imagine it happens that often.

[Windspeed]

How many years has the Atlantic have more ACE then the WPAC? Can't imagine it happens that often.

Not going through the entire modern historical record, but it's not frequent. These are the most recent years that the North Atlantic Basin had higher ACE than the NW Pacific Basin.

1998
1999
2010
2017
2020

Interestingly, the two other hyperactive seasons in the Atlantic, 2004 and 2005, got stomped by the WPAC.

[JakkelWx]

That was the craziest Atlantic hurricane season in my lifetime besides 2005. 2020

[Prospero]

17 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

That was the craziest Atlantic hurricane season in my lifetime besides 2005. 2020

Curious what is ahead of us.

Weird to me that so many what should have been perfect eyes never materialized. Maybe that is why the ocean could not get rid of its heat?

[Floydbuster]

It was a very weird hurricane season. I think I'm getting old. It was 20 years ago that I joined the first hurricane message board, which eventually lead to more of them. It just seems like it used to be easier to keep track of "active" hurricanes. When I was a teen, the costliest storms were easy: Andrew, Hugo, Floyd. Boom. Done. I wouldn't even know what the list is now. You have storms like "Sandy" which wasn't even technically a hurricane at landfall. We had a Cat 5 landfall in 2018, but it was in mid-October. We had a slew of extremely busy years (2010-2011-2012) with lackluster landfalls, followed by incredibly slow seasons (2013-2014-2015). Seasons so "boring" that I essentially feel like I didn't track hurricanes during much of the Obama Years. 

2020 was insane, but I don't understand all the backlogged seasons in the last decade. What's with the insane Octobers? Weird high-latitude Cat 4s in October like Ophelia 2011? Cat 5 U.S. Landfall in mid-October 2018? Hurricane Joaquin with his messed up late-season southwest track in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean? This year: Delta, Zeta, Eta, Iota....all monsters...all in mid-October or later. What the hell? Is it some sort of climate change? I'm a skeptic when it comes to hurricanes and climate change, but it sure as hell feels different. "Busy" seasons when I was a teen were like 2001. The "I" storm in October. Now we have a Greek letter in October. What gives? Any ideas? Are we naming too much junk?

Another thing: What's with all the non-U.S. hurricanes being put on U.S. landfall lists? Putting random Typhoons that hit Guam 60 years ago on a list with Michael and Andrew. What the hell is that? Saying Hurricane Maria "hit the U.S." I have relatives who live in Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico is not the United States of America. Now I see the 1928 hurricane's Cat 5 Puerto Rican landfall being called "U.S." landfall. What the hell is that?

I guess I just got used to Steve Lyons and John Hope on the Weather Channel with Kristina Abernathy and Jeff Morrow tracking normal hurricanes on normal maps. I turn on the Weather Channel now and they do "Special Coverage" of an invest. In my day John Hope would've circled it on the tropical update at :50 past the hour and said "Nothing there, but we will watch it. That's it for this time." Now there are supermodel women with 3D graphics showing invest model plots. It kinda takes the notoriety out of our online weather community.

 

[Windspeed]

It was a very weird hurricane season. I think I'm getting old. It was 20 years ago that I joined the first hurricane message board, which eventually lead to more of them. It just seems like it used to be easier to keep track of "active" hurricanes. When I was a teen, the costliest storms were easy: Andrew, Hugo, Floyd. Boom. Done. I wouldn't even know what the list is now. You have storms like "Sandy" which wasn't even technically a hurricane at landfall. We had a Cat 5 landfall in 2018, but it was in mid-October. We had a slew of extremely busy years (2010-2011-2012) with lackluster landfalls, followed by incredibly slow seasons (2013-2014-2015). Seasons so "boring" that I essentially feel like I didn't track hurricanes during much of the Obama Years.  2020 was insane, but I don't understand all the backlogged seasons in the last decade. What's with the insane Octobers? Weird high-latitude Cat 4s in October like Ophelia 2011? Cat 5 U.S. Landfall in mid-October 2018? Hurricane Joaquin with his messed up late-season southwest track in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean? This year: Delta, Zeta, Eta, Iota....all monsters...all in mid-October or later. What the hell? Is it some sort of climate change? I'm a skeptic when it comes to hurricanes and climate change, but it sure as hell feels different. "Busy" seasons when I was a teen were like 2001. The "I" storm in October. Now we have a Greek letter in October. What gives? Any ideas? Are we naming too much junk? Another thing: What's with all the non-U.S. hurricanes being put on U.S. landfall lists? Putting random Typhoons that hit Guam 60 years ago on a list with Michael and Andrew. What the hell is that? Saying Hurricane Maria "hit the U.S." I have relatives who live in Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico is not the United States of America. Now I see the 1928 hurricane's Cat 5 Puerto Rican landfall being called "U.S." landfall. What the hell is that? I guess I just got used to Steve Lyons and John Hope on the Weather Channel with Kristina Abernathy and Jeff Morrow tracking normal hurricanes on normal maps. I turn on the Weather Channel now and they do "Special Coverage" of an invest. In my day John Hope would've circled it on the tropical update at :50 past the hour and said "Nothing there, but we will watch it. That's it for this time." Now there are supermodel women with 3D graphics showing invest model plots. It kinda takes the notoriety out of our online weather community.

U.S. federal territory is now included in landfalls. Probably should have always been if costing American citizens / taxpayers direct to indirect casualties and economic impacts. That being said, PR may end up being an actual state at some point anyway.

 

As for the late season fireworks, other than the outrageous 2017 Cape Verde season, seasons over the past decade have seemingly experienced intense hurricanes at a later date. I am a little reluctant to say it is entirely due to climate change because this might be an episodic cyclical period that has occurred in previous centuries or beyond the scope of good shipping reports / meteorological data. However, I am not saying it isn't due to climate change. There are a lot of variables and perhaps climate change is having an influence on mid-season / early Cape Verde seasonal shear patterns that wanes later in September, allowing for an active October. Perhaps it has just been a stretch of bad luck in randomness or statistical probability? I still expect seasons like 2004 and 2017 for a more atypical active Augusts and early September CV season. There is no doubt the overall trend has swung later into the season at least on a recent decadal timescale however.

[LibertyBell]

On 1/26/2021 at 9:19 AM, Windspeed said:

U.S. federal territory is now included in landfalls. Probably should have always been if costing American citizens / taxpayers direct to indirect casualties and economic impacts. That being said, PR may end up being an actual state at some point anyway.

 

As for the late season fireworks, other than the outrageous 2017 Cape Verde season, seasons over the past decade have seemingly experienced intense hurricanes at a later date. I am a little reluctant to say it is entirely due to climate change because this might be an episodic cyclical period that has occurred in previous centuries or beyond the scope of good shipping reports / meteorological data. However, I am not saying it isn't due to climate change. There are a lot of variables and perhaps climate change is having an influence on mid-season / early Cape Verde seasonal shear patterns that wanes later in September, allowing for an active October. Perhaps it has just been a stretch of bad luck in randomness or statistical probability? I still expect seasons like 2004 and 2017 for a more atypical active Augusts and early September CV season. There is no doubt the overall trend has swung later into the season at least on a recent decadal timescale however.

perhaps beyond the scope of this discussion but do you think science will ever advance to the point where we can control these monsters or at the very least find some kind of mechanical release to cool down SST (or create shear) to lessen the impact of these beasts?