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2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

You’re right. Hiding the bad news from the public is never a good idea either.

Happy medium is maybe not discussing scientific hypotheticals as part of your messaging to the general public?

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35 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Edit: you said there isn't data on this,  only conjecture, that's wrong,  see paragraph 1.

First of all, there are notable differences culturally and demographically between countries like the UK and US to suggest what happens there will also happen here.

But also, the "data" you're referencing is being hotly disputed by scientists. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/09/ucl-team-claim-covid-19-herd-immunity-achieved-uk-disputed-scientists

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5 minutes ago, Powerball said:

First of all, there are notable differences culturally and demographically between countries like the UK and US to suggest what happens there will also happen here.

But also, the "data" you're referencing is being hotly disputed by scientists. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/09/ucl-team-claim-covid-19-herd-immunity-achieved-uk-disputed-scientists

Like what? What countries are closer?

Come on man... the "data" isn't being hotly disputed, just the interpretations of that data. Data is hard facts. 

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19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Antibodies don't just disappear do they? A year from now those vaccinated will likely have partial immunity and still be able to avoid severe illness? 

Theres b cells and t cells that are tough to test for. We dont have lots of antibodies just circulating in our blood on the reg. 

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In some ways I think there is too much obsession over the term herd immunity.  Not to say we shouldn't have as many vaccinated as possible, but I am pretty sure "herd immunity" for covid is not going to look like it does for polio, measles, or other diseases that are almost non-existent (especially in the United States).  I think our best case is sort of a watered down, poor man's version of it.

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3 hours ago, Powerball said:

First of all, there are notable differences culturally and demographically between countries like the UK and US to suggest what happens there will also happen here.

But also, the "data" you're referencing is being hotly disputed by scientists. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/09/ucl-team-claim-covid-19-herd-immunity-achieved-uk-disputed-scientists

There's been no better cause and effect relationship in this pandemic than vaccine uptake in a population group and subsequent declines in cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

There's a difference between herd immunity in a population acting like it did before the pandemic and the current herd immunity threshold in a population acting like it is now and with the other environmental factors that affect transmission. We can and will overcome the herd immunity threshold and cases will start to decline in the coming weeks/months,  I have a lot of confidence that this will happen because it's happened in comparable countries.

I also think the current prevalence of the virus and hospitalizations should be some of the main metrics used to inform policy and messaging on how cautious people need to be at a particular time and that there can be different rules for people that are vaccinated and people that are not vaccinated. The herd immunity threshold will be different in the summer than it will be in the fall and winter but the rate of cases will reflect the current amount of immunity and caution needed to keep things contained. 

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My sister's two boys have covid, the 12 year old has had some symptoms as well, the 10 year old is fine. I do worry about my sister who has some preexisting conditions though, at the possibility of catching it.

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25 minutes ago, Stebo said:

My sister's two boys have covid, the 12 year old has had some symptoms as well, the 10 year old is fine. I do worry about my sister who has some preexisting conditions though, at the possibility of catching it.

I put some advice below, but you have to click to see it.

Seems like an appropriate time for her to invoke the break glass option and vacate the home for a week or two.  12 and 10 year olds are practically considered adults in some societies.

Seriously though, hope things turn out well.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

I put some advice below, but you have to click to see it.

 

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Seems like an appropriate time for her to invoke the break glass option and vacate the home for a week or two.  12 and 10 year olds are practically considered adults in some societies.

Seriously though, hope things turn out well.

 

 

Lol, if it was the 12 year old in my house, he probably could be alone for a week. I am just glad I hadn't seen them since before Easter.

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This could be the reason for our recent increases

 

AFAIK the P1 variant is not a high percentage of cases anywhere in the U.S. Michigan is mostly B.1.1.7.  Canada (BC in particular) has had more P.1 cases. Very likely the P.1 variant is also responsible for the major surge in many South American countries.

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A local hospital in Sandusky mi who doesn't have an icu had  to transfer covid patients to Toledo Ohio for care as the nearest place able to take them. Sandusky is about 90 miles north of Detroit so and about 60-70 miles from Saginaw/Flint so from them to have to go to Toledo to find open bed shows how bad the situation is up here right now

https://www.wnem.com/news/increase-in-covid-19-cases-making-it-hard-for-thumb-region-hospitals-to-provide-adequate/article_400aa316-9e2a-11eb-a5d1-83e481510428.html?fbclid=IwAR1uj9tKxyecXoU7pcxVF7B5t3Cr_MwbyBc48WBNnuleT8Ly1Yl59S_Kvfo

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2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The fact that healthy young professional athletes are still suffering speaks volumes about this p1 variant 

It flies in the face of a few here who keep barking that healthy people aren't impacted as severely or that exercise will save them. If NHL players are getting this sick then exercise is irrelevant.

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10 minutes ago, Stebo said:

It flies in the face of a few here who keep barking that healthy people aren't impacted as severely or that exercise will save them. If NHL players are getting this sick then exercise is irrelevant.

Statistically, healthy people aren't impacted as severely.  It's not a magic bullet, but you'd rather be a healthy individual without comorbidities.

I don't think I have seen anybody beat their chest about their personal fitness level on a non-fitness board as much as winterwx21, but there's a lot of truth in what he posts about risk levels and how to reduce your odds of having severe covid.  One thing he has not really mentioned though is that it's tough to predict how his body would react if it encountered one of the variants.  There's some variables involved and just because you flew through covid with ease the first time doesn't necessarily mean it would be the case next time.

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Statistically, healthy people aren't impacted as severely.  It's not a magic bullet, but you'd rather be a healthy individual without comorbidities.

I don't think I have seen anybody beat their chest about their personal fitness level on a non-fitness board as much as winterwx21, but there's a lot of truth in what he posts about risk levels and how to reduce your odds of having severe covid.  One thing he has not really mentioned though is that it's tough to predict how his body would react if it encountered one of the variants.  There's some variables involved and just because you flew through covid with ease the first time doesn't necessarily mean it would be the case next time.

LOL, you are right about that. And I do apologize if I go overboard with that. I'll try to tone it down a little, lol. But I do think it's important to get the message out about how much improved fitness reduces severe Covid risk. So many people don't seem to realize the major connection between fitness level and Covid risk. I've posted studies that have shown it. I've seen many doctors comment that it has absolutely driven them crazy that health authorities didn't get the message out early in this pandemic about how risk can be reduced through improved health (diet/exercise). Just like a lot of lives would have been saved had we not had some overly conservative republicans (Trump of course being the biggest problem) discouraging mask use, a lot of lives also would have been saved had health authorities gotten the message out early about how to reduce risk by getting into better shape. Those 2 things have been the biggest problems during this pandemic. Really a shame ... we never should have had this many hospitalizations and deaths.

You are right that I can't be sure my body would handle it as easily if I caught one of the worst variants. I think my odds of getting severe Covid where I would have to go to the hospital would still be extremely low (but not zero), but with a bad variant I'm sure odds would be higher that I could get pretty sick like we've seen with a bunch of athletes on the Canucks hockey team. I've leaned against vaccination, but it is something I will still consider. Vaccination is a no brainer for people with any kind of condition that puts them at higher risk (which is the majority of the adult population in this country), but it's a more difficult decision for athletes. Many athletes don't feel this way, but there are also many that would rather rely on the natural protection of fitness than put something unnatural into their body. But it is something I will consider in the next few weeks.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

It flies in the face of a few here who keep barking that healthy people aren't impacted as severely or that exercise will save them. If NHL players are getting this sick then exercise is irrelevant.

Don't know if you saw this, but I posted it earlier today...

https://www.miragenews.com/shot-of-exercise-can-prevent-covid-19s-deadly-543704/

This study really shows the connection between physical activity level and severe Covid risk. I've posted other studies in the past too, like one where they looked at fitness level of people that did treadmill stress tests and risk of of hospitalization. The evidence that higher fitness level greatly reduces severe Covid risk is really strong. The new study that I just posted above says that physical fitness is the greatest severe Covid risk factor besides being old and organ transplant.

I think the problem is you are misunderstanding what severe Covid outcome means. These athletes that are stuck in bed because of being sick as a dog are not having severe outcomes. As rough as it is, it's a heck of a lot better than being in a hospital fighting for your life. While great fitness does not always prevent athletes from getting very sick, it does almost always prevent them from having the severe outcome of having to be in the hospital to be saved or even dying. This is a very good thing, and shows the importance of fitness to prevent things like lungs and heart failing. Also realize that while some athletes get pretty sick, there are tons of athletes that get mild to no symptoms. The virus has been much less severe for athletes than the general population. So you are dead wrong when you claim that healthy people are impacted as severely. The statistics overwhelmingly prove that you are wrong about that. A higher percentage of obese people will die from Covid, but very few healthy athletes will. Exercise is VERY important to reduce risk.

 

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Statistically, healthy people aren't impacted as severely.  It's not a magic bullet, but you'd rather be a healthy individual without comorbidities.

I don't think I have seen anybody beat their chest about their personal fitness level on a non-fitness board as much as winterwx21, but there's a lot of truth in what he posts about risk levels and how to reduce your odds of having severe covid.  One thing he has not really mentioned though is that it's tough to predict how his body would react if it encountered one of the variants.  There's some variables involved and just because you flew through covid with ease the first time doesn't necessarily mean it would be the case next time.

Obviously you'd rather be healthy, but some here are treating it as if it is the magic bullet, it is just like the equivalent of SC not having covid earlier in the thread. Just like it wasn't raining gold there it isn't raining tread machines here.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Obviously you'd rather be healthy, but some here are treating it as if it is the magic bullet, it is just like the equivalent of SC not having covid earlier in the thread. Just like it wasn't raining gold there it isn't raining tread machines here.

I don’t think it’s a magic bullet but I think for a lot of people it reduces the chances of severe covid to an “acceptable” risk level (flu like risk level for young/healthy/no pre existing health conditions). 

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7 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Don't know if you saw this, but I posted it earlier today...

https://www.miragenews.com/shot-of-exercise-can-prevent-covid-19s-deadly-543704/

This study really shows the connection between physical activity level and severe Covid risk. I've posted other studies in the past too, like one where they looked at fitness level of people that did treadmill stress tests and risk of of hospitalization. The evidence that higher fitness level greatly reduces severe Covid risk is really strong. The new study that I just posted above says that physical fitness is the greatest severe Covid risk factor besides being old and organ transplant.

I think the problem is you are misunderstanding what severe Covid outcome means. These athletes that are stuck in bed because of being sick as a dog are not having severe outcomes. As rough as it is, it's a heck of a lot better than being in a hospital fighting for your life. While great fitness does not always prevent athletes from getting very sick, it does almost always prevent them from having the severe outcome of having to be in the hospital to be saved or even dying. This is a very good thing, and shows the importance of fitness to prevent things like lungs and heart failing. Also realize that while some athletes get pretty sick, there are tons of athletes that get mild to no symptoms. The virus has been much less severe for athletes than the general population. So you are dead wrong when you claim that healthy people are impacted as severely. The statistics overwhelmingly prove that you are wrong about that. A higher percentage of obese people will die from Covid, but very few healthy athletes will. Exercise is VERY important to reduce risk.

 

Looks like this is from the same study. Almost thought I was reading a headline for an article about the vaccine "reduce your risk of severe covid."

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/04/14/regular-exercise-can-reduce-your-risk-of-severe-covid-study.html

We're over a year in now. Plenty of time to have made healthier choices.  

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1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

This “fitness can prevent severe covid” debate is turning into the new “masks can make you sick.” At least this one has more legitimacy, but we’re beating a dead horse here.

Agreed.

We get it. A healthy lifestyle can reduce the risk of contracting COVID and experiecing severe symptoms.

But we don't have to keeping hearing it 27 times over again from the same person(s), who in all truthfulness is probably just trying to humblebrag. 

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13 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Agreed.

We get it. A healthy lifestyle can reduce the risk of contracting COVID and experiecing severe symptoms.

But we don't have to keeping hearing it 27 times over again from the same person(s), who in all truthfulness is probably just trying to humblebrag. 

Lol

ETA: You and a couple other people attaching personal narratives to everything is what starts these huge derailments in this thread. 

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