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George BM

March Banter 2020

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1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

You mean like a certain Russian collusion conspiracy?  Or that nonsense about a presidential campaign being spied on?  Or about a certain dossier of alarming and embarrassing accusations being funded by a certain political opponent? 

There are narratives on both sides. Some have nuggets of truth then spin off the deep end. I’m not getting into a tit for tat. Wrt media both sides have decided hurting the other is more important than unbiased accurate reporting. It’s a problem. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The mortality rate is no doubt lower. But that’s true of most viruses because we never have a true number of all cases. Even the flu, how many people go undiagnosed each year. The real mortality rate is likely lower for that also. 

The real issue isn’t necessarily the mortality rate though. It’s preventing a sudden spike is cases that would collapse our healthcare system. Then people can die of other things due to lack of medical care. Because we have no vaccine and no natural immunity in the population to this it’s dangerous for that reason. It can spread rapidly and get lots of people sick at once over burdening our system. 

Everything you say makes sense.  But 80% of people that get Corona have mild symptoms.  Viruses are going to spread because that is what they do.  But they also don’t do well in hotter areas.  I did a crude analysis of the “sick map” from Johns Hopkins and with few exceptions warmer to hot areas have few infections and even fewer deaths.  If we can get through the next 30-60 days in the US i truly believe the disaster predictions will be avoided.  My sister works at a hospital in San Jose.  They are tossing people out with no symptoms or mild symptoms.  They don’t need hospital treatment, they need to turn off the news, treat their symptoms with advice from a primary care doctor and calm down.

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We can handle the virus. We cannot handle selfish, ignorant pigs hoarding things though. We need to start rationing supplies like we did in World War II, or else we're going to keep seeing losers walk out with ten carts full of toilet paper and bread, leaving none for anyone else. Babies are missing formula, people can't find pet food... I can't even find diapers for my son. Stores around here are still out of many basic items like meat, water and toiletries.

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8 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

We can handle the virus. We cannot handle selfish, ignorant pigs hoarding things though. We need to start rationing supplies like we did in World War II, or else we're going to keep seeing losers walk out with ten carts full of toilet paper and bread, leaving none for anyone else. Babies are missing formula, people can't find pet food... I can't even find diapers for my son. Stores around here are still out of many basic items like meat, water and toiletries.

I hoping in 9-10 months we can all make this post because a slow moving coastal is savaging our area with 2+ inch an hour rates for 48 hours.  It’s still a weather board so i can dream lol

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19 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Is there evidence that 20% of cases need hospitalization here in America?

That’s the number that was cited by the Task Force at yesterday’s press conference.  It’s based on cases around the world.  

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1 hour ago, SnowGolfBro said:

This is an observation based on the statistics as they stand to date.  I am hearing two conflicting statements that no one seems to be piecing together.  I see the fatality rate listed somewhere between 1 and 2 percent.  But i also hear a lot of people saying there are far more undiagnosed cases than the numbers reflect.  So assuming all deaths related to the virus are reported (which seems reasonable) but a large number of cases go undiagnosed (due to mild symptoms, no symptoms or are simply resting and recovering as if they had any other cold or virus) then I’d estimate that the death rate is closer to that of the common flu (one tenth of one percent).  I don’t see how this logical conclusion is not being trumpeted by everyone.  Taking the craziest prediction i have heard of 150 million Americans getting the Wuhan Red Death. Then that would equal 150,000 deaths.  Just an opinion, but it doesn’t hurt to have perspective in difficult times.

Nobody, not even our most senior epidemiologist Dr Fauci, thinks this is close to 0.1%. The lowest recorded in any country is South Korea at 0.7%, and they do SUPER widespread testing and likely have the best sample. However - this is a very rough case fatality rate done by dividing the total number of deaths by the total number of cases.

This is not the best way to do it, because it takes about 3 weeks from infection to die from this thing. The right way is to divide the total number of deaths by the total number of cases 3 weeks ago.

 

But even then it's not so simple. How many factors are bringing it down (undiagnosed asymptomatic), how many are bringing it up (over capacity health care system, which increases fatalities dramatically, hence "flatten the curve"). PhDs will be earned determining the case fatality ratio on this. Estimates seem to range from 0.7% (asymptomatic carriers, elderly die first, fatality rate drops) at the absolute lowest to 5.6% at the absolute highest (over capacity health care system, 3 week lag time in deaths). 

 

No matter what, it's not going to be "just the flu".

 

Do your part and help flatten the curve so that we trend as close to that 0.7% as possible.

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14 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Everything you say makes sense.  But 80% of people that get Corona have mild symptoms.  Viruses are going to spread because that is what they do.  But they also don’t do well in hotter areas.  I did a crude analysis of the “sick map” from Johns Hopkins and with few exceptions warmer to hot areas have few infections and even fewer deaths.  If we can get through the next 30-60 days in the US i truly believe the disaster predictions will be avoided.  My sister works at a hospital in San Jose.  They are tossing people out with no symptoms or mild symptoms.  They don’t need hospital treatment, they need to turn off the news, treat their symptoms with advice from a primary care doctor and calm down.

This will spread but if we can slow the spread through social distancing we can prevent a spike where everyone gets sick at once.  In the end it might effect the same number but if it’s spread out over months vs 2 weeks it’s better. Won’t ever collapse our care capacity. Then the mortality rate will be lower due to better care. Plus less effects to people with other medical issues that will need care.  We saw in other countries what happens if drastic measures aren’t taken right away.  We aren’t special biologically.  The same will happen here if we don’t take actions to prevent it.

Wrt weather impacts. Some viruses are less effected by that. We just don’t know yet if warmer weather will help. We can’t assume it will until we see evidence. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This will spread but if we can slow the spread through social distancing we can prevent a spike where everyone gets sick at once.  In the end it might effect the same number but if it’s spread out over months vs 2 weeks it’s better. Won’t ever collapse our care capacity. Then the mortality rate will be lower due to better care. Plus less effects to people with other medical issues that will need care.  We saw in other countries what happens if drastic measures aren’t taken right away.  We aren’t special biologically.  The same will happen here if we don’t take actions to prevent it.

Wrt weather impacts. Some viruses are less effected by that. We just don’t know yet if warmer weather will help. We can’t assume it will until we see evidence. 

I was pretty hopeful with respect to weather, but what's going on in Florida and Louisiana has kinda dashed that hope for me.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This will spread but if we can slow the spread through social distancing we can prevent a spike where everyone gets sick at once.  In the end it might effect the same number but if it’s spread out over months vs 2 weeks it’s better. Won’t ever collapse our care capacity. Then the mortality rate will be lower due to better care. Plus less effects to people with other medical issues that will need care.  We saw in other countries what happens if drastic measures aren’t taken right away.  We aren’t special biologically.  The same will happen here if we don’t take actions to prevent it.

Wrt weather impacts. Some viruses are less effected by that. We just don’t know yet if warmer weather will help. We can’t assume it will until we see evidence. 

Look at the US.  Warm places are seeing few infections and hardly any deaths.  Look at our hotspots.  Seattle area.  New York.  Look at Florida, Arizona, Texas, they have relatively few cases and deaths close to zero.  Let’s come back to this post in a few weeks.  And if I’m wrong i will readily admit it. 

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12 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

That’s the number that was cited by the Task Force at yesterday’s press conference.  It’s based on cases around the world.  

Right, but that isn't necessarily here in America

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46 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Right, but that isn't necessarily here in America

It’s just starting here.  All we can do is use the numbers we have.  Why would Americans be any different?

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49 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Look at the US.  Warm places are seeing few infections and hardly any deaths.  Look at our hotspots.  Seattle area.  New York.  Look at Florida, Arizona, Texas, they have relatively few cases and deaths close to zero.  Let’s come back to this post in a few weeks.  And if I’m wrong i will readily admit it. 

I hope you are right, but we are in the very beginning stages of this.  Way too early to draw any conclusions IMO.  

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2 hours ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Everything you say makes sense.  But 80% of people that get Corona have mild symptoms.  Viruses are going to spread because that is what they do.  But they also don’t do well in hotter areas.  I did a crude analysis of the “sick map” from Johns Hopkins and with few exceptions warmer to hot areas have few infections and even fewer deaths.  If we can get through the next 30-60 days in the US i truly believe the disaster predictions will be avoided.  My sister works at a hospital in San Jose.  They are tossing people out with no symptoms or mild symptoms.  They don’t need hospital treatment, they need to turn off the news, treat their symptoms with advice from a primary care doctor and calm down.

Agree with some of the reference to warmer areas, but there's exceptions to this too.  The majority of the warmer climates in the world are also among the poorest where access to reliable testing is going to be marginal at best for a long time.  And the stats on the Johns Hopkins Heat Map are based solely on verified test results, which are significantly less than the number of actual cases.  

The stats for India and Africa are the prime examples of what is most likely under reporting.  Stats in African and the Indian sub-continent are currently well behind much of the rest of the world.  That said, the stats starting to ramp up 2 days ago.  From a temperature perspective, the northern tier of the subcontinent is still in transition from cool winter/spring temps (it does get below freezing in the winter in Delhi - DJF) to what we would call summer-like temps in the south.  

If we look at South America and Australia also, their stats have grown significantly over the last couple of days and Australia is just entering Fall along the southern coast.

As for China, their data integrity must be objectively questioned and significantly so.  Just as they deployed the largest quarantine in history, they also have the ability to control the data/stats.  They actively control all nodes of Internet traffic in and out of China with an acute level of precision most can't contemplate.  

Experienced a similar level of domain control albeit with the "free" press in India when I lived there in the 90's.  We had an outbreak of pneumonic plague in 94.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_plague_in_India  They voluntarily evacuated the US Embassy as the news consumed all forms of information services at the time (largely pre-Internet except for a few).  The story went from consuming entire sections of the Delhi Times on a Friday to nothing two days later.  Not a whimper.  In reality, the Indian political machine clamped down on the press and it just went away - like that.  Was a pretty amazing thing to live through at the time.  Actual deaths were wayyy higher than those acknowledged in the official reporting.  

Nothing above is intended to demean or question what we're facing with this pandemic.  Hopefully, the US will rise to the occasion and group together to bring to bear the best of what we can muster.  My fear is the current political climate will continue to undermine attempts to do so.  

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Corona sure  hasn't slowed the mail . Bills keep a comin:lol:

As far as my daily routine.  It will be pretty unchanged.  Most of us Construction workers have to continue to work or we don't get paid . Simple as that . If things really make an ugly turn then I might lay low for a few days ( and  have to get a long term $loan from the @showmethesnow estate ) but otherwise I'll be out there every day.  I'll pack my lunch ( no convenience store stops) go straight to my jobs,  wash hands more often , stay away from any crowds and go on with life . 

Oh...and  drink lots and lots and lots of beer 

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March madness cancelation was a real  punch in the gut . If they cancel MLB that will be a double kick to the balls . Hopefully this gets under control soon . 

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No one is changing minds when it comes to political views, especially in this current divisive political climate. What a fuccking waste of time. 

However, if anyone is interested in scissoring and hand wringing, and generally engaging in intellectually dishonest discourse, not to mention hurling personal insults, have at it here.

http://www.americanpol.com/

 

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36 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

March madness cancelation was a real  punch in the gut . If they cancel MLB that will be a double kick to the balls . Hopefully this gets under control soon . 

As an Os fan, I really couldn't give a shit. :lol:

I haven't watched more than a few innings total since Showalter left. The baseball equivalent to the Deadskins.

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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

As an Os fan, I really couldn't give a shit. :lol:

I haven't watched more than a few innings total since Showalter left. The baseball equivalent to the Deadskins.

I'm a baseball junky thru and thru . Love the game.  It will suck major if they cancel.  I did like Showalter alot though. Definitely missed 

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

As an Os fan, I really couldn't give a shit. :lol:

I haven't watched more than a few innings total since Showalter left. The baseball equivalent to the Deadskins.

I agree. They can cancel the entire mlb season as far as im concerned.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm a baseball junky thru and thru . Love the game.  It will suck major if they cancel.  I did like Showalter alot though. Definitely missed 

They wont cancel. I mean, if they do then we are probably all screwed lol. Might be shortened, but 162 freaking game reg season is too long anyway. Esp with the expanded playoffs. Whats the point of a marathon of a reg season? Used to be after that marathon, 2 teams emerged and played a world series. 130 games is plenty today. And there would be no early/late season weather issues.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm a baseball junky thru and thru . Love the game.  It will suck major if they cancel.  I did like Showalter alot though. Definitely missed 

Showalter was awesome. Before he came to Baltimore the O's were intimidated by the Redsox and Yankees.

He intentially did things during games with those teams the first couple of years he was here to say were not afraid of you and its going to be a battle for all 27 outs.

Loved the attitude and grit he brought to Baltimore.

He did more with less resources and talent then most other managers are capable of.

Edit - I remember 1 game where I thought he was going to start throwing punches  at Joe Giardi at home plate. Really miss what he brought to the O's.

 

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Corona sure  hasn't slowed the mail . Bills keep a comin:lol:

As far as my daily routine.  It will be pretty unchanged.  Most of us Construction workers have to continue to work or we don't get paid . Simple as that . If things really make an ugly turn then I might lay low for a few days ( and  have to get a long term $loan from the @showmethesnow estate ) but otherwise I'll be out there every day.  I'll pack my lunch ( no convenience store stops) go straight to my jobs,  wash hands more often , stay away from any crowds and go on with life . 

Oh...and  drink lots and lots and lots of beer 

Stay hydrated my friend!! :D

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28 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I don't always drink beer ...

But when I do.. 

I prefer Corona...

Stay healthy my friends :yikes:

You have the original corona virus. Probably worse than this one.

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5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There are narratives on both sides. Some have nuggets of truth then spin off the deep end. I’m not getting into a tit for tat. Wrt media both sides have decided hurting the other is more important than unbiased accurate reporting. It’s a problem. 

Yes there are narratives on both sides, but I don't think it's a 50/50 equal split.  The conservative side does peddle into the fear, conspiracy and propaganda more than the other.  I know that'll offend political sensibilities but it's true.  It normally is an effective political strategy -- and it's great for TV ratings -- but, as you can see, it not effective when there is an actual crisis.

Cable news is pretty terrible in general.  I think the fairness doctrine was a good idea.

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6 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

Yes there are narratives on both sides, but I don't think it's a 50/50 equal split.  The conservative side does peddle into the fear, conspiracy and propaganda more than the other.  I know that'll offend political sensibilities but it's true.  It normally is an effective political strategy -- and it's great for TV ratings -- but, as you can see, it not effective when there is an actual crisis.

Cable news is pretty terrible in general.  I think the fairness doctrine was a good idea.

Any objective, fair minded person would agree that Fox news is largely a propaganda machine. I say that as a moderate democrat who has many conservative friends and family members, and is not a big fan of CNN or MSNBC either. There have been some legit good and objective journalists at Fox- Shep Smith was probably the best in recent times, until he just couldn't play that game anymore. There are one or 2 left there that are real journalists- Chris Wallace is one that comes to mind. Fox has essentially become state TV. There is no equivalent to Fox on the left leaning media outlets. It is simply the truth.

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43 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Any objective, fair minded person would agree that Fox news is largely a propaganda machine. I say that as a moderate democrat who has many conservative friends and family members, and is not a big fan of CNN or MSNBC either. There have been some legit good and objective journalists at Fox- Shep Smith was probably the best in recent times, until he just couldn't play that game anymore. There are one or 2 left there that are real journalists- Chris Wallace is one that comes to mind. Fox has essentially become state TV. There is no equivalent to Fox on the left leaning media outlets. It is simply the truth.

Are you referring to ratings? I have no use for Hannity since he is a barker and cheerleader. But there is propaganda spewing from all sides. Except when it comes to the dossier. 

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