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WEATHER53

What went wrong

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In early November the source region of cold air was excellent and in evidence and that continued into mid December. Then abruptly that stopped and never returned.

Why?

No one knows. Perhaps God or the myriad of alphabet indexes crafted to explain the unexplainable.

By just before Christmas the first “return to cold in 10 days” came and went. Now the disaster was underway. History shows that when the very first “return to cold” fails that 80% of the time the colder never re-emerges. Feb 2007 was a big exception but that was 13 years ago so figure the odds on your own.

Observation threads are still a delight and discussing 3-5 day leads  is worthy but all the multi paragraphs clamoirings over unproven indexes and models really doesn’t lend anything.

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54 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

In early November the source region of cold air was excellent and in evidence and that continued into mid December. Then abruptly that stopped and never returned.

Why?

No one knows. Perhaps God or the myriad of alphabet indexes crafted to explain the unexplainable.

By just before Christmas the first “return to cold in 10 days” came and went. Now the disaster was underway. History shows that when the very first “return to cold” fails that 80% of the time the colder never re-emerges. Feb 2007 was a big exception but that was 13 years ago so figure the odds on your own.

Observation threads are still a delight and discussing 3-5 day leads  is worthy but all the multi paragraphs clamoirings over unproven indexes and models really doesn’t lend anything.

Unfavorable pac forcing combined with a strong PV. 

Years where there was a significant pattern flip from warm to cold during winter

1958,1960,1966,1972,1987,1993,1999,2000,2005,2007,2014,2016,2018.  

There are plenty of flips from cold to warm also.  But by New Years the combo of a strong phase 5/6 mjo wave in conjunction with a strong PV coupling with the tpv hinted that this year was at risk to be a total dud. That combo is the leading cause of our total wasted years. This result isn’t a big surprise.  

 

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I blame PSU personally.  If he hadn't have made that infamous post back in late December, this never would have happened.

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Feb 2007 was a big exception but that was 13 years ago so figure the odds on your own.




Answer:
For 1 to 13 odds for winning;

Probability of:
Winning = (0.0714) or 7.1429%
Losing = (0.9286) or 92.8571%

"Odds for" winning: 1:13
"Odds against" winning: 13:1



.

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18 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Every November that has less than 2” of rain at BWI/DCA has a winter that turns out to be a dumpster fire. It’s a better leading indicator than any model at this point.

 

If so then bingo and exactly. Analogs.  We never had said that a dry November “”Causes” a bummer winter but when 80%of the time what you referenced we end up with a bummer winter then you must pay attention to that. Now, what caused the dryness and the bummer that followed can be up to the debating team but this method Is Forecadting instead of throwing a bunch of indexes into s pot and trying to make soup. Forecasting of weather, not all potential examples of it.

 

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20 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Every November that has less than 2” of rain at BWI/DCA has a winter that turns out to be a dumpster fire. It’s a better leading indicator than any model at this point.

 

Based on a ridiculously small sample size of data considering the history of weather on this planet it's a worthless indicator, and is far more likely a coincidence than anything. 

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5 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

If so then bingo and exactly. Analogs.  We never had said that a dry November “”Causes” a bummer winter but when 80%of the time what you referenced we end up with a bummer winter then you must pay attention to that. Now, what caused the dryness and the bummer that followed can be up to the debating team but this method Is Forecadting instead of throwing a bunch of indexes into s pot and trying to make soup. Forecasting of weather, not all potential examples of it.

 

I must look into this analog thing. Never heard of it. Sounds like voodoo black magic to me. 

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2 hours ago, Yeoman said:

Based on a ridiculously small sample size of data considering the history of weather on this planet it's a worthless indicator, and is far more likely a coincidence than anything. 

I can think of something else that describes 

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42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can think of something else that describes 

That's cool.. I can think of 100s of things that describes

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What happened was, everyone predicted it would be decent and okay. Because that’s the case, I predict next winter will be hot and rainy in hopes that it does the opposite and leaves us with 3 feet of snow and temperatures below 32 for at least 2 weeks straight.

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5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Another awful Tenman thread.

Poetry?

Truth hurts especially when a cellar dwelling chump  like you  is powerless to do anything themselves. As always, when you cant contribute nor refute then personally attack the poster.

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34 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Truth hurts especially when a cellar dwelling chump  like you  is powerless to do anything themselves. As always, when you cant contribute nor refute then personally attack the poster.

What's your prediction for the coming summer? I predict that a cloud is gonna form somewhere in the U.S.

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9 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Truth hurts especially when a cellar dwelling chump  like you  is powerless to do anything themselves. As always, when you cant contribute nor refute then personally attack the poster.

You answered it all in your op. No one knows. It's in the hands of god. NWP is useless hocus-pocus. 

end thread/

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Tenman thought it would be cold

We didn’t think that was bold

Even DT agreed, he said we’d all see

Turns out winter was way oversold

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Low solar would lead to blocking

It got the weenies excited and flocking

The strat vortex began, and then it went ham 

All winter it was up there just mocking 

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Low solar would lead to blocking

It got the weenies excited and flocking

The strat vortex began, and then it went ham 

All winter it was up there just mocking 

You are in a groove.

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The central Pac ridge set up shop

Hoffman said with it a trough wouldn’t pop

How much for Boise? The weenies got noisy

The AO just wouldn’t drop 

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This winter has been pretty poor,

Though it’s been fun seeing friends of yore,

And now the snowbirds begin the migration,

Wounded from no snow elation,

But one thing is certainly sure,

Weenies always forget the torture,

And come October they’ll begin to flock,

To come back for another winter crock.

 

 

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52 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Living in the Mid-Atlantic is what went wrong. 

This is true, but let me help you with the rhyming part...

Living in the Mid-Atlantic is what went wrong

Move north where winters are cold and long

Without lots of luck, winters here are brief, and suck

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Stratospheric vortex, consolidated

Tightly wound ball of doom 

Weather weenies migrate to the panic room

Bring it to an end

The limitless winter gloom

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One thing that went wrong is within ourselves. We all are here because we like snow and cold.. Whether we admit it or not we have a built in bias toward cold and snow and that does indeed make us all to some extent make the objective data fit our preconceived bias.

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