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March Medium/Long Range Disco

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I was surprised too ..Yea...its really close verbatim to a nice hit . Maybe 6 or 12  hours in timing 

The airmass isn't cold to start, but we could probably get enough cold on the back end of it bombs. 

And yes it purely escapes due to the timing of the southern stream. The northern stream isn't configured to shred it. Pivotal weather is showing a right entrance region over us at 300mb.

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Wrt the op euro the SS and NS missed the phase and a major storm by 6 hours. It was as close as you can get without a major amped solution. And it would have amplified perfectly for us location wise. It was a run that suggests there is a chance.  There have been enough runs with a similar look that it’s at least still a threat, if a long shot one. That’s all it’s worth. 

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Eps definitely a move in the right direction at h5. Mainly the  Lower heights to the northeast that weren't there at 0z . Eps 500 vorticity maps have the general look of the op .

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps definitely a move in the right direction at h5.

850s look ok?  I know you said surface is less than perfect.  

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

850s look ok?  I know you said surface is less than perfect.  

Eps has the general idea of the op which for now is good enough for me ...and like Amped said above if this came together this type of setup  points to a crashing column . 

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Pretty nice front end event on the Gfs day 11 .

 

Ninjad by Jiiiiii

Yea each model keeps spitting out a snow solution here or there but it continues to be a random storm with no consistency. Until we see guidance converge on the same discreet event it all remains highly unlikely. 

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22 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Flurries today; front end dump on 3/10-11. We're back baby!!

You’re not really thinking...never mind I’m sure it will be a nice event.  Those positive thinking classes are really doing the trick

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5 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

I was surprised too ..Yea...its really close verbatim to a nice hit . Maybe 6 or 12  hours in timing 

Just noticed the Ukmet. It does phase, but looks like an apps runner at 144. The NS digs a lot further west.

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5 minutes ago, Amped said:

Just noticed the Ukmet. It does phase, but looks like an apps runner at 144. The NS digs a lot further west.

I almost posted it for comparison.  Yea most definitely a very strong  phased low going over us or west.  Maby way west 

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It looks like on April 10th 1894 we got a warning level event here. So there is still plenty of time.

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1 hour ago, PDIII said:

It looks like on April 10th 1894 we got a warning level event here. So there is still plenty of time.

It was actually a Travelers Advisory 

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15 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

LONG LONG LONG term but I'll just leave this here.  Somebody make sure that Maestrobjwa doesn't see this.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

 

image.png.3402f191fedbd79a05acfe9692b62679.png

 

Uh...dude? Nobody here would want that result--not just me! After the 2016/17 and 2017/18, I'm not sure why you're acting like my dislike of ninas isn't logical (check the stats and see how well we do in ninas here).

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8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Uh...dude? Nobody here would want that result--not just me! After the 2016/17 and 2017/18, I'm not sure why you're acting like my dislike of ninas isn't logical (check the stats and see how well we do in ninas here).

The last decent winter in my yard (slightly above avg snowfall) was 2017-18. Given worse options- like the complete disaster that is this winter- I might actually welcome a Nina.

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9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Uh...dude? Nobody here would want that result--not just me! After the 2016/17 and 2017/18, I'm not sure why you're acting like my dislike of ninas isn't logical (check the stats and see how well we do in ninas here).

If I had to guess right now based on historical probabilities and recent trends in long term global patterns, next year is likely to suck also but not as bad as this. A 5-10” winter around DC would be my best guess right now. 

There is a lot of time for that to change. Maybe the warmer waters in the IO and western PAC driving the unfavorable mjo shifts.  Maybe enso changes trajectory. Maybe the long term AO state flips. But that’s a lot of maybe. Better to just expect it to suck and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t. 

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It has always been common for DC to go through multiple year runs of sucky winters. But the trend for 50 years has been for those suck years to be even worse.  Unfortunately it’s bevoming quite normal for DC to go long stretches with very little snowfall. The good years are becoming better too and big storms bigger...but I think most snow lovers would prefer a more even distribution and not as long a wait between good times. But that is our current climo. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It has always been common for DC to go through multiple year runs of sucky winters. But the trend for 50 years has been for those suck years to be even worse.  Unfortunately it’s bevoming quite normal for DC to go long stretches with very little snowfall. The good years are becoming better too and big storms bigger...but I think most snow lovers would prefer a more even distribution and not as long a wait between good times. But that is our current climo. 

I agree. Someone asked me on my weather page what role climate change might be playing in the lack of snow this winter and past winters....this was my response. 
 

Good questions and it’s a complex answer in my opinion it isn’t simple. When we talk about climate change/global warming in relation to local weather and climate records, we have to remember that really legit weather record have only been kept for less than 200 years. But also have to keep in mind the rapid industrialization of urban areas in the same last 200 years. One would be a fool to think that rapid industrialization has played no role in weather and climate, particularly in urban areas over the last couple centuries. But I still believe our weather is dominated by cycles and weather patterns. The reason for the lack of snow this year is mainly simply because the pattern doesn’t support it. Storms have tracked to our west and that will always put us on the warmer side of the track with southerly flow. So climate change/global warming not only argues for a overall rise in global temperatures (which is happening) but also more extreme weather which is also happening. So over the last 30-40 years around Baltimore I think there’s been a higher frequency in Lower snow winters but I also believe there’s been a higher frequency in big snow storms over the last 30-40 years if that makes sense. So in my opinion, the years of many small to moderate snows that get us to near average are going to be more difficult to come by, but we’ll still see the occasional winters with 1 or multiple large snowstorms

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It has always been common for DC to go through multiple year runs of sucky winters. But the trend for 50 years has been for those suck years to be even worse.  Unfortunately it’s bevoming quite normal for DC to go long stretches with very little snowfall. The good years are becoming better too and big storms bigger...but I think most snow lovers would prefer a more even distribution and not as long a wait between good times. But that is our current climo. 

True, but we also had about 5 -6 consecutive years of really good winters (minus ‘12-‘13’) from 2010-2016.  So the past few years have felt out of the norm after that stretch.  I don’t remember a worse winter than this one. I’m in Fairfax where we have seen about 2” total this year. 

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11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Uh...dude? Nobody here would want that result--not just me! After the 2016/17 and 2017/18, I'm not sure why you're acting like my dislike of ninas isn't logical (check the stats and see how well we do in ninas here).

95-96 was nina at tail end of solar min so never say it's a lock to be a bust.

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