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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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Wow, Canadian is significantly warmer than GFS/NAM. I thought that it was generally one of the coldest models most of the time? Or is that something that has been fixed in their recent upgrades? The fact that it's apparently a better model than the GFS now isn't comforting lol

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2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Wow, Canadian is significantly warmer than GFS/NAM. I thought that it was generally one of the coldest models most of the time? Or is that something that has been fixed in their recent upgrades? The fact that it's apparently a better model than the GFS now isn't comforting lol

I believe it gets that stigma because it models CAD events better than some of the other globals do when we're talking winter storms, but this overrunning setup is not usually what we are dealing with

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I know in past years I've seen the occasional post mentioning increased data gathering around this point in a storm's timeline.  Has anyone heard if the NWS is planning to get additional information into the initialization of the models??  Or, would this system not impact a large enough area for that??

 

Edit - It got really quiet in here... spooky!!!

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I know in past years I've seen the occasional post mentioning increased data gathering around this point in a storm's timeline.  Has anyone heard if the NWS is planning to get additional information into the initialization of the models??  Or, would this system not impact a large enough area for that??
 
Edit - It got really quiet in here... spooky!!!
It is also almost 1am, people are tired, and several of us are trying to calm our hearts after Ryan Newman's wreck in the Daytona 500.

Anyway, here are the 0z GFS suites7ed185254d3b31bd76b86156173fb06e.jpg

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ECMWF still not on board. Even more suppressed. Until it is on board it would be wise to believe its solution. Looks warm as well.
More suppressed than 12z?

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UKMET show anything?
Never loaded for me on pivotal..
found the UKMO... It trended cooler at the surface but still too warm (12z and 0z runs for 6pm Thursday). dfbe81730381dabd065da2856c22ea63.jpg4bbc18c9796cff7e7f57238474552103.jpg

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4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

ECMWF still not on board. Even more suppressed. Until it is on board it would be wise to believe its solution. Looks warm as well.

850s didn't change very much. It's warmer at the surface because of less precip and therefore less wet bulbing. I would assume that's what is showing on the UKMET also. That is what the surface will look like without sufficient QPF. 

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45 minutes ago, The Alchemist said:

I know in past years I've seen the occasional post mentioning increased data gathering around this point in a storm's timeline.  Has anyone heard if the NWS is planning to get additional information into the initialization of the models??  Or, would this system not impact a large enough area for that??

 

Edit - It got really quiet in here... spooky!!!

Can almost certainly say 'no' on this. Those are reserved for much more significant events (i.e. Hurricane Dorian, etc.)

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3am Disco:

&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Cold front to slip south through the FA Wednesday, while upper energy shifts to our east. It appears that most of the precip will be shifting towards the south and east during the day. Cooler temps to also filter in behind the front. Slow moving front to remain to our south Thursday while another upper disturbance moves east across the region ahead of an upper trough digging into the region. A surface wave is progged to develop off the SE coast and move NE. Cooler air will continue to work into our FA from the strong parent Canadian high to our NW while guidance continues to indicate precipitation for our FA Thursday into Thursday night. Some questions about precipitation type Thursday nt, mainly to our NE. Latest model ensemble means indicate some light snow accum across our E/NE FA. Local top down tool indicates a period of rain/snow mix Thu nt for the central and east FA. Confidence limited due to several key factors in our local perfect storm approach for significant winter weather not being met. Main issue is cold air not being in place before the onset of precip but rather is coming in as the precipitation/moisture is shifting out. Even if a period of light snow occurs, surface temps appear will be above freezing and warm soil temps would lead to melting and reduced impacts. Will leave in rain/snow mix for Thu nt but will not indicate snow accum at this time.

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Pretty dramatic jump northward on that run with the snow totals. As someone getting closer and closer to the southern fringes, this is not a trend I want to see continue. 

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If the 3K NAM is correct, you won’t be wasting any initial precip across most of NC. If there’s a warm layer, it’s above 700MB. 

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GSP

For the rest of the forecast period, all eyes and interests remain
on the potential for snow across the area Thursday and Thursday
night. The general consensus of the latest model guidance continues
to place the recently passed cold front well south of the area, with
cyclogenesis progged to develop somewhere along this feature just
off the Carolina/GA coast. However, in regards to available moisture
and supportive upper dynamics, guidance just isn`t in agreement.
This has been a trend for the past few days, with models coming in
wetter one run, then drier the next. With this latest run, the 00Z
ECMWF comes in slightly drier than before. With that said,
collaborating with neighbors, have kept with the bulk of the
moisture coming in Thursday afternoon into Thursday night (at or
less than a quarter of an inch QPF), as colder temperatures
infiltrate in. However, per latest guidance and fcst soundings,
anticipate precipitation to begin as early as Thursday morning
across the southern mountains, where a rain, snow, rain/snow mix is
expected at the onset of precip. As the precipitation expands
northeastward into the area, areas along and south of the I-85
corridor look to remain warm enough for all rain through the
afternoon and evening hours, as max temperatures climb into the
lower 40s. While areas over the NW Piedmont could see a few
snowflakes mixed in. A transition to a rain/snow mix is expected
into Thursday night as any lingering precipitation tapers off and
temperatures drop. Given the warmer temperatures during the day, do
not anticipate any travel concerns at this time across the Upstate
and NW Piedmont. As for the mountains, max temperatures on Thursday
will struggle to warm as much as the Upstate and NW Piedmont, with
many areas progged to remain around freezing. Thus, snow
accumulations will be possible, mainly a dusting to below an inch in
some locations, with up to 2 inches possible across the higher
elevations. With this said, any slight changes in the coming model
runs will easily change the outcome of this event. Thus, best to
keep close attention as we draw closer in time.


.

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After analyzing the overnight runs, our surface temperatures will still be an issue in central NC.  Rates will overcome that but as soon as the precip lets up or stops, they will shoot back up (except for extreme overnight hours perhaps).  
I could see this being a sloppy/wet snow on grass and raised surfaces, melting by mid-day Friday.  Better than what we have had, though.  
Originally, this was a win for eastern and southeastern NC...  But looking at the 3K nam, northern NC should be a little more excited with less mixing and temperature issues.

Local station (WRAL) still going with the possibility of a wintry mix with some accumulation bridges?  Moisture and cold air limited are their 2 reasons.

RAH discussion is in line with this.  Temperatures remain above freezing at surface until storm departs.  They even say that most of the area will dry pre-dawn limited black ice potential.  

Quote
Precipitation should clear out of central NC rapidly pre-dawn Friday
leaving sub-freezing temperatures and a light northerly breeze in
its wake until sunrise. With sustained northerly winds in the 6 to
10mph range, thinking that drying processes in the coldest areas
should limit the black ice/flash freeze potential for the most part.

 

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https://twitter.com/_jwall/status/1229745451144040450?s=20

6Z Euro (and ensembles) is drier again.  This is a trend that it keeps getting drier and drier.  NWS and local mets leaning heavily on this model given its record.  

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3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

 

https://twitter.com/_jwall/status/1229745451144040450?s=20

6Z Euro (and ensembles) is drier again.  This is a trend that it keeps getting drier and drier.  NWS and local mets leaning heavily on this model given its record.  

The King has spoken... lets see how long it takes for the NAM to sit down and shut up. Or maybe the NAM storms the castle!! 

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