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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Don't trust the HRRR this far out.  I only use it for simulated radar during the event.

HRRR isn't far out for my back yard. It shows no precip until 11am while the NAM has .25 inches falling here by 10am.  That's only a 15'ish hour lead time. 

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2 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

You’ll probably end up with about 3” inland and 0.5” on the beach.  Still more than Philly this season.

What do you consider inland? Chesapeake? Norfolk? Suffolk? 

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3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

HRRR isn't far out for my back yard. It shows no precip until 11am while the NAM has .25 inches falling here by 10am.  That's only a 15'ish hour lead time. 

Are these the same models, short range, that were showing mid 50s highs in RAH tomorrow! Trust them

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2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Heard y’all like snow maps here’s what I made for my friends on Facebook

I like your optimism and hope that map verifies, but I’ll be shocked if everyone receives half of that.

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Local station here in Hampton Roads---guy showed 3 models, with NAM around 3" and the other 2 showing like 1". Then showed their in-house model which literally had 0 for Chesapeake/Va Beach. He then says he anticipates a "significant snow event"?

Huh? Seemed more like covering his bases than actually giving out info.

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I like your optimism and hope that map verifies, but I’ll be shocked if everyone receives half of that.

Here’s my super heavy disclaimer; it was a casual map I made for most of my friends primarily in the eastern part of the state, so for the mountains and west this doesn’t exactly exude granular detail. That being said I think 2-5 across the northern half of the state is decently attainable; also feeling pretty good about the northern eastern corner seeing some pretty good totals

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IDK fellas, the current radar looks like it has plenty of moisture and moving ENE. If that is any indication there should be plenty of moisture for most to see at least a nice thump. Cold is usually the issue and I still think it will be with this one as well. 

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5 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

GFS cut snow totals even further. Hmmm. It did extend it some for those in N GA and NW SC.

No it didn't. 

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Just now, UpstateFlurry said:

The story of the system will be some in Eastern NC will  be disappoint while some in NW SC will be suspended. Good luck to everyone. Good night. 

I live in NW SC. :D :ph34r:

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7 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

IDK fellas, the current radar looks like it has plenty of moisture and moving ENE. If that is any indication there should be plenty of moisture for most to see at least a nice thump. Cold is usually the issue and I still think it will be with this one as well. 

I've been posting today from TX that this system is overperforming bigtime.  Still raining here and has been raining for over 24 hours now.  QPF will not be the issue tomorrow. 

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Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Yes, it did. Compare 18z to 0z. Snow totals were cut some.

snku_acc.us_ma.png

snku_acc.us_ma.png

 

Went up in some spots! 

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Not really sure I buy the jackpots being so far east given the SLP location. It's not "that" far offshore, given the recent trends. IMO the area from Raleigh to Roanoke Rapids to Eliz' City looks pretty golden in this particular setup. Also over-running tends to sneak up fast and sometimes has a tendency to overperform. So don't be surprised if we see some quick totals add up over the southwest mountains/NE GA tomorrow. I tend to look at the 500mb pattern more so than most, as that's what i've always used for comparison/climo purposes. This one has the look of a classic i40 3 to 6 inch type event to me. Of course lolipops are always possible of 8 to 10. But the overwhelming majority will probably favor lesser totals. Initial sfc temps issues/light rain will likely be overcome by heavy precip relatively quickly north of i40.

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Latest HREF Snow Totals

tSDwey5.png

Hate to say it but.. It also went down for most western areas from last run

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10 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I've been posting today from TX that this system is overperforming bigtime.  Still raining here and has been raining for over 24 hours now.  QPF will not be the issue tomorrow. 

The problem for some is not just the quantity of QPF, but the cutoff.  It could be pretty sharp for places that otherwise wouldn’t have temp issues.

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5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Hate to say it but.. It also went down for most western areas from last run

Don't really buy the precip gap over western NC. THe majority of this system will be isentropic lift generated (aka GOM moisture overrunning cold air). The southwest mountains/foothills and NE Georgia generally do well in these setups. There will likely be some back end enhancement over the costal plain w/ some incoming PJ energy Thursday night, but that will be a small enhanced band most likely confined over NE NC. The majority of this will be a front end thump. Radar looks good as well. We are in a weak El-Nino and most systems lately have overperformed QPF wise. Good to keep ground moisture/recent trends in mind.

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