• Member Statistics

    16,022
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Blue Moon
    Newest Member
    Blue Moon
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

Recommended Posts

I find it kinda odd the NE part of that advisory is not a WSW. I think they meet criteria easily. For the Triangle, I agree with the WWA, but it would not surprise me to hit WSW type snows anywhere in that advisory area really. The spread is definitely high with this storm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, ThePackBacker said:

I came back to American for this call...a dusting to 2"!  Where's ColdRain...can he not bring the smack down on this. :-)

This setup is a little different than most with the southsinking/progressive HP.

Ha, yeah the south sinking cold air right as the precip maximizes is indeed unusual

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I find it kinda odd the NE part of that advisory is not a WSW. I think they meet criteria easily. For the Triangle, I agree with the WWA, but it would not surprise me to hit WSW type snows anywhere in that advisory area really. The spread is definitely high with this storm

Agreed. I have a theory they're just leaning conservative, and will likely upgrade to WSW's in the NE part later tonight or early AM tomorrow.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The HRRR, somehow, warms us up to near 50 degrees tomorrow despite 100% cloud cover. 

Even the mountains outside of 5000'+ are above freezing, with spots close to 45 lol. odd

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I find it kinda odd the NE part of that advisory is not a WSW. I think they meet criteria easily. For the Triangle, I agree with the WWA, but it would not surprise me to hit WSW type snows anywhere in that advisory area really. The spread is definitely high with this storm

 

5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The HRRR, somehow, warms us up to near 50 degrees tomorrow despite 100% cloud cover. 

That's a bit concerning.  The snow finally breaks out over far NE NC.  

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

image.thumb.png.a28a34001d6617ef5dcfed110d5352ba.png

Another uptick in SREF

I've always hated the SREF but if there was ever a time I'm pulling for it then it's right now with this system. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

My local forecast on TWC app has less than an inch for tomorrow this morning, now says 1-3”!

With that much snow they must be forecasting you to stay below 35 tomorrow for a high.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Me likey the 18z HRRR... keeps the warm nose at i-85 in SC for the duration of the storm. Assuming it's surface temps are off, it's all snow for the northern upstate... 2-4 inches assumig its cold enough to stick. Precip looks anemic for the piedmont of NC though.

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, chris624wx said:

Wakefield just pushed a Winter Storm Watch out 

I don't know what their Warning criteria is but the text in the watch area sounds like they are expecting 2-3 in of snow which is in line with the WWA for the Raleigh forecast area

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is 1pm tomorrow. That bright band denotes partially melted snowflakes at the radar beam level, hence it's a good indicator of where the rain/snow line will be.  (assuming the boundary layer isn't too warm).

Screen Shot 2020-02-19 at 2.47.42 PM.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, burrel2 said:

Me likey the 18z HRRR... keeps the warm nose at i-85 in SC for the duration of the storm. Assuming it's surface temps are off, it's all snow for the northern upstate... 2-4 inches assumig its cold enough to stick. Precip looks anemic for the piedmont of NC though.

Yep, I chose to just ignore the surface and 925 temps cause physics says that if it's that cold at 850 with heavy precip it isn't suddenly warming in the layers below it. It did the same with the previous storm. Had the surface way too warm by as much 5-10 degrees. Showed even the Mtns changing to rain, when as we know the exact opposite happened with snow making it as far south as Atlanta and Athens. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

Yep, I chose to just ignore the surface and 925 temps cause physics says that if it's that cold at 850 with heavy precip it isn't suddenly warming in the layers below it. It did the same with the previous storm. Had the surface way too warm by as much 5-10 degrees. Showed even the Mtns changing to rain, when as we know the exact opposite happened with snow making it as far south as Atlanta and Athens. 

That's what I'm hoping for right now. Last system had me changing to rain, but with how heavy the precip was, our temp dropped as we stayed all snow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ST21 said:

That's what I'm hoping for right now. Last system had me changing to rain, but with how heavy the precip was, our temp dropped as we stayed all snow. 

Yep. My concern with this system is whether or not the mid/upper levels cool in time and stay that way. Surface temps in the mid/upper 30s is fine for wet snow but the upper levels have to cooperate. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The HRRR is having some big issues with evaporational cooling.  No way The whole column is below freezing and surface temps are in the low 40's.  I don't buy it. Here is the sounding over central NC during the height of the event.

hrrr_2020021918_026_35.75--79.83.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.