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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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21 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Fixed your post!

I’ve never since revered the Euro like I did before the Dec 2010 storm. Still like it and want it on my side, but It hasn’t been the same ever since for whatever reason

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1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

Was just looking at the same thing. I've seen it go both ways in this scenario. I've seen it bottom out at 34 and refuse to budge and I've also seen the heavy snow falling through the sub freezing column above give that extra degree or two needed. I guess only time will tell in that regard. 

Agree. It comes down to precip rates and how shallow the near surface warm layer is. In this case the GFS and NAM yield good rates and the warm layer is very shallow (in this area) so I’d expect to see surface temps move 2-3 degrees lower than modeled. But look above, as warm nosing aloft is a separate problem. The Euro doesn’t have the precip rates 

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The reason the GFS is warmer is it suspiciously warms up on Thursday Morning. Now I ask you, if clouds and precip are coming in, are you really going to heat up that much? 
 

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At this point, we should be able to start seeing if the high pressure and precursor front will set up like the models are predicting...this will help us see if things will verify down the road.  Euro holding on to a weaker high and weaker low, hence weaker storm.
(hope this doesn't get deleted like my other posts for some reason)

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5 minutes ago, Wow said:

Nowcasting could be really awesome with this one

Theres a 1/23/2003 level of catch up potential here on the professionals part.

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

Agree. It comes down to precip rates and how shallow the near surface warm layer is. In this case the GFS and NAM yield good rates and the warm layer is very shallow (in this area) so I’d expect to see surface temps move 2-3 degrees lower than modeled. But look above, as warm nosing aloft is a separate problem. The Euro doesn’t have the precip rates 

I'm completely fine with sleet if we're solidly below freezing.  I'd just like a strong winter storm event. I'd suspect that's why many mets are going so low impact event with this is 1. Hugging the euro and 2. seeing above freezing surface temps.  

It would be nice if we didn't have to worry about temps one time wouldn't it?! Only a 1043+ high in just the right spot....

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8 minutes ago, griteater said:

I’ve never since revered the Euro like I did before the Dec 2010 storm. Still like it and want it on my side, but It hasn’t been the same ever since for whatever reason

09-10 the euro was the king. Ever since then it's done a subpar job of handling storms in our general area. I know it started to go through several "upgrades" at that time but it has really gone down hill. Can anyone remember the last time the euro won the model war? Reading back on the old threads this is the same situation over and over.

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1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

That last runs push back south against the warm nose is very encouraging. Hope to see that become a trend. 

I'm really having a hard time buying the strong warm nose. It's not an amped up storm, the flow aloft is out of the southwest but there is a big high building in the plains at the same time. I'm also not seeing the high qpf numbers associated with such a strong warm nose.

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look at where that rain/snow line is on the 18z HRRR that just came out.... please be right! That's all the way down to lookout's house.

Screen Shot 2020-02-18 at 6.52.05 PM.png

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1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

look at where that rain/snow line is on the 18z HRRR that just came out.... please be right! That's all the way down to lookout's house.

Screen Shot 2020-02-18 at 6.52.05 PM.png

That’s reflectivity, not the rain snow line.

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Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

That’s reflectivity, not the rain snow line.

the hrr reflectivity picks up on the rain/snow line via the bright band you can see... where the melted flakes are hitting the radar beam.  See the snowfall accum map I posted and it matches that bright band.

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6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

That’s reflectivity, not the rain snow line.

That's some really poor analysis...

Hrr looks great..very Nam like but colder.

 

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13 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Theres a 1/23/2003 level of catch up potential here on the professionals part.

Not going to happen. 

Jet streams are completely different than 2003.

 

2020

namconus_uv250_us_43.png

 

2003

eta_12z_300_000hr.gif

 

The low SLP is over a un-favorable location for this current system, in contrast to the 2003 storm. 

 

Also, H5 does not provide any evidence of overamplification. 

Trough more tilted in 2003.

eta_12z_500_000hr.gif

 

2020. Trough more zonal now. 

namconus_z500_vort_us_42.png

 

I think Brads forecast is on the money and maybe not conservative enough. Still a great storm to see some flakes! Any flakes should be a win! 

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1 hour ago, calculus1 said:

Apps lee-side screw-zone in full effect!  I would think if the precipitation truly blossoms that it would fill back in further NW, but maybe that's just wishful thinking...

Models seem to do this a lot,  over doing NW flow coming off the mountains. 

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HRRR at least with last weeks event was several degrees too warm area wide so that's a pretty wild solution there. Of course I'm speaking about the 18 HR one not the experimental, idk if it has any biases or not on those long runs. 

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Kinda playing catchup here but really only thing I40 north in my opinion can hope for is either some over amplification or some southeast aided flow. Dry air is going to be a contender with a 1043 parked to the west of us. 

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28 minutes ago, Wow said:

Nowcasting could be really awesome with this one

Wow...Nowcasting was awesome on 2/8 here in NW Upstate SC. We ended up with 4 inches of snow that wasn't forecast, exceeded winter storm warning criteria. Also, the weekend before that we had about 4 to 5 hours of snow (Cashiers NC had 3-4 inches with no advisory or warnings that same day) that just gave us a dusting in places again that was not forecast and the local weather folks on fox 21 were live on tv while it was snowing in total disbelief it was happening and said a few times the models weren't showing this happening. Cannot wait for this one!!

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7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

My rough call:

call1.jpg

I think that’s pretty fair but I could definitely see it move 75 miles west. 

 

7 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Not going to happen. 

Jet streams are completely different than 2003.

 

2020

namconus_uv250_us_43.png

 

2003

eta_12z_300_000hr.gif

 

The low SLP is over a un-favorable location for this current system, in contrast to the 2003 storm. 

 

Also, H5 does not provide any evidence of overamplification. 

Trough more tilted in 2003.

eta_12z_500_000hr.gif

 

2020. Trough more zonal now. 

namconus_z500_vort_us_42.png

 

I think Brads forecast is on the money and maybe not conservative enough. Still a great storm to see some flakes! Any flakes should be a win! 

I didn’t say the storms were similar, I meant that forecasting less than an inch in the triangle is a dangerous proposition given our trends and could force people into catchup mode.

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look at where that rain/snow line is on the 18z HRRR that just came out.... please be right! That's all the way down to lookout's house.
1457396653_ScreenShot2020-02-18at6_52_05PM.thumb.png.c05ef242dd32e764ddb7b41a8d60c795.png
Why is it in rain though for the upstate

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

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 <a href="https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1229921154556727296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 19, 2020</a></blockquote> 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The 18z European run is folding like a piece of origami to the NAM/GFS. <a href="https://t.co/a25nbIl0bj">pic.twitter.com/a25nbIl0bj</a></p>&mdash; Eric Webb (@webberweather) <a href="https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1229921154556727296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 19, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The 18z European run is folding like a piece of origami to the NAM/GFS. <a href="https://t.co/a25nbIl0bj">pic.twitter.com/a25nbIl0bj</a></p>&mdash; Eric Webb (@webberweather) <a href="https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1229921154556727296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 19, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The 18z European run is folding like a piece of origami to the NAM/GFS. <a href="https://t.co/a25nbIl0bj">pic.twitter.com/a25nbIl0bj</a></p>&mdash; Eric Webb (@webberweather) <a href="https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1229921154556727296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 19, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I can't figure out how to embed a tweet.  help please

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1 minute ago, BullCityWx said:

I think that’s pretty fair but I could definitely see it move 75 miles west. 

 

I didn’t say the storms were similar, I meant that forecasting less than an inch in the triangle is a dangerous proposition given our trends and could force people into catchup mode.

What exact trends have you seen besides QPF and SLP fluctuations? 

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2 minutes ago, Weatherzim said:

Why is it in rain though for the upstate

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 

Sorry, I should have been more clear. This isn't a precip type radar. You can just clearly see the transition line due bright banding on the simulated radar.  

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