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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Tanking towards less positive or sinking below the line of death?  

I suppose dropping from off the charts + down to +2 qualifies as tanking this winter.

It looks less positive briefly, but models have it going deep blue up top beyond that.

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Euro has been depicting some possible snow showers with a piece of UL energy dropping in behind the initial cold front on late Thursday. I mentioned it in this thread yesterday. Looks a bit more impressive on today's run. Something to keep an eye on. Loseto6 and I were discussing it in the other thread. Not sure where it belongs, if it even ends up becoming a thing.

1582254000-b16Tcv5LfKA.png

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Euro has been depicting some possible snow showers with a piece of UL energy dropping in behind the initial cold front on late Thursday. I mentioned it in this thread yesterday. Looks a bit more impressive on today's run. Something to keep an eye on. Loseto6 and I were discussing it in the other thread. Not sure where it belongs, if it even ends up becoming a thing.

1582254000-b16Tcv5LfKA.png

Wow I’ll enjoy my .01 of flurries and like it 

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9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Euro has been depicting some possible snow showers with a piece of UL energy dropping in behind the initial cold front on late Thursday. I mentioned it in this thread yesterday. Looks a bit more impressive on today's run. Something to keep an eye on. Loseto6 and I were discussing it in the other thread. Not sure where t belongs, if it even ends up becoming a thing.

1582254000-b16Tcv5LfKA.png

Yea...the ensembles have had this almost hidden signal for a while now. EPS has had a small cluster and actually Gefs was more enthused a day or so ago I believe with a handful out of 22 showing the mysterious white stuff.:D

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1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Wow I’ll enjoy my .01 of flurries and like it 

What else we got?

Could end up being 1-2 for someone. Who knows. Either way, I hope you get bupkis. :D

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Euro quicker ejecting the S. Cal bowling ball this run . If we could get that ns  to dive in more south and setup some better confluence we could have a shot at something wintery .

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2524000.png

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37 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Wow I’ll enjoy my .01 of flurries and like it 

We get screwed with only .005

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40 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro quicker ejecting the S. Cal bowling ball this run . If we could get that ns  to dive in more south and setup some better confluence we could have a shot at something wintery .

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2524000.png

My guess is that's an error and  the GFS/CMC are correct. Could be a decent tornado outbreak along the gulf coast if it does verify.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t worry JB has a new analog. 1960.  No shame...lol

Saw that.  In fairness to him though, has admitted the WB temp forecast for winter was wrong..

 

 

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

What else we got?

Could end up being 1-2 for someone. Who knows. Either way, I hope you get bupkis. :D

1-2 flakes?

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Simply must laugh at the touted pattern change for early March that has been offered up since early Jan.
There has been no pattern change offered at all by any models since January
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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Saw that.  In fairness to him though, has admitted the WB temp forecast for winter was wrong..

 

 

Yea so he immediately moved on to the next ridiculous BS nonsense that he knows has next to no chance to verify.  You would think he would at least try to tone it down for 5 minutes. 

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30 minutes ago, Ji said:
37 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:
Simply must laugh at the touted pattern change for early March that has been offered up since early Jan.

There has been no pattern change offered at all by any models since January

He has a script and will stick to it regardless 

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Euro has been depicting some possible snow showers with a piece of UL energy dropping in behind the initial cold front on late Thursday. I mentioned it in this thread yesterday. Looks a bit more impressive on today's run. Something to keep an eye on. Loseto6 and I were discussing it in the other thread. Not sure where it belongs, if it even ends up becoming a thing.

1582254000-b16Tcv5LfKA.png

HH icon looks  to get onboard. 

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Euro has been depicting some possible snow showers with a piece of UL energy dropping in behind the initial cold front on late Thursday. I mentioned it in this thread yesterday. Looks a bit more impressive on today's run. Something to keep an eye on. Loseto6 and I were discussing it in the other thread. Not sure where it belongs, if it even ends up becoming a thing.

1582254000-b16Tcv5LfKA.png

If a dusting of snow is "more impressive" I would hate to have seen previous runs.

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

My spring forecast is days and days of overcast, temps upper 40s to 50s, and rain. So much rain. NAO will be very negative during this time. Enjoy!

Oh and wind. Can't forget wind. It will blow non-stop from the north.

It will be salt in the wounds if we got the pattern we needed too late...but the fear spring gets ruined by a -NAO is always overblown. A -NAO can certainly make March chilly but by the time we get to April there is no way we’re getting more than a rare day or two that’s actually cold. It won’t rain everyday...and when it’s Sunny it’s almost guaranteed to at least be ~50 degrees.  It will just delay summer like temps until May/June instead of years where we jump right to upper 70s and 80s in April. 

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If a dusting of snow is "more impressive" I would hate to have seen previous runs.

We Talkin' bout snow showers. Not snowpocalypse II.

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He has a script and will stick to it regardless 

We realize you have  to personalize a response when no one spoke to you directly.

Reminds me of the Pied Piper JoeB or WxRisk  days where those guys felt omnipotent 

my script is the factual outcomes while you chase 15+ day fantasy pattern changes 

 

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS  continues to show pattern changes toward end of February/ early March. No strong signals for any snow yet.

04B6BFB7-2D76-40FE-8817-19B7C6E5DCCB.png

6E0F88EB-C96C-439E-AF98-15FD448930BE.png

Blocking looks transient.  That means the cold shot will be also. Doesn't even look like much of it gets into the NAO or AO domain.

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3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Blocking looks transient.  That means the cold shot will be also. Doesn't even look like much of it gets into the NAO or AO domain.

It will be transient. We’re just looking for a shot. We probably only get one chance. The first system to eject from the west behind the likely cutter will be the only real chance. After it probably breaks down again.  

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