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February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential

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The meso models didn't exactly move in the right direction to get those bigger snow totals in NNE.  I wonder if GYX dials back their maps a bit this afternoon?

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7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The meso models didn't exactly move in the right direction to get those bigger snow totals in NNE.  I wonder if GYX dials back their maps a bit this afternoon?

Would be a solid idea

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8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The meso models didn't exactly move in the right direction to get those bigger snow totals in NNE.  I wonder if GYX dials back their maps a bit this afternoon?

The 9z RAP went thru MPV VT lol

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The 9z RAP went thru MPV VT lol

 That would be ouchie!

 So much for PF being “a lock” for 12”+

 Could still happen tho’

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Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said:

The ice is starting to melt here, 33F.

Yup.  I'm fine wine with that, it was nice to look at.  I'm not sure how many more slop storms I can take.  I was clearing the snow blower chute every 5 minutes but I didn't dare not clear.

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34F at ASH. Looks like an inch or two of snow and sleet with a little glaze on top. Now let’s get that melting started. 

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45 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 That would be ouchie!

 So much for PF being “a lock” for 12”+

 Could still happen tho’

Up to 3-4” range... need to grab 8” tomorrow.  

I forecasted 8-16” on here and 7-14” on FB so I think that’ll nail it.  

Bush league to run with the heaviest guidance all the time ;).

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With the high moving off to the east and losing the positive pressure pattern over central and NNE...there's not much to protect the region from temperature rising/latent heat of phase change at the regional scope.  Will or Scott said it best the other day, that's why without the sub 0C DP steady state insert ... you end up 33. 

I mentioned this an hour ago but the high retreating the way it did - no one really brought that point up ( I didn't either ) or I didn't see anyone discuss it.. But, when the highs move E, it gets harder to maintain < freezing phase change in the region.  It may still dam the air...sure... but it's dammed 35 F 

Even here alone route 2 it's dripping at 32.5 now.  

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Up to 3-4” range... need to grab 8” tomorrow.  

I forecasted 8-16” on here and 7-14” on FB so I think that’ll nail it.  

Bush league to run with the heaviest guidance all the time ;).

The globals are almost in lock-step. GFS just ran and its easily 12+ Euro is 12+

Stowe-Jay peak is gonna get crushed tomorrow. Easily 15+ total. It's locked.

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Up to 3-4” range... need to grab 8” tomorrow.  

I forecasted 8-16” on here and 7-14” on FB so I think that’ll nail it.  

Bush league to run with the heaviest guidance all the time ;).

Sack up and narrow that range. 

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

With the high moving off to the east and losing the positive pressure pattern over central and NNE...there's not much to protect the region from temperature rising/latent heat of phase change at the regional scope.  Will or Scott said it best the other day, that's why without the sub 0C DP steady state insert ... you end up 33. 

I mentioned this an hour ago but the high retreating the way it did - no one really brought that point up ( I didn't either ) or I didn't see anyone discuss it.. But, when the highs move E, it gets harder to maintain < freezing phase change in the region.  It may still dam the air...sure... but it's dammed 35 F 

Even here alone route 2 it's dripping at 32.5 now.  

It was pretty well modeled to bounce above freezing during the day today. Even the more aggressive meso models yestersay really didnt kick in any significant northerly drain until tonight when we get a weak meso low offshore. Granted they seem to have backed off a bit and we may end up more in the 32-34 range

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1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

It was pretty well modeled to bounce above freezing during the day today. Even the more aggressive mesos models yestersay really didnt kick in any significant northerly drain until tonight when we get a weak meso low offshore. Granted they seem to have backed off a bit and we may end up more in the 32-34 range

Yeah it will turn north later, but sub 32 air will have trouble probably inside 495

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

With the high moving off to the east and losing the positive pressure pattern over central and NNE...there's not much to protect the region from temperature rising/latent heat of phase change at the regional scope.  Will or Scott said it best the other day, that's why without the sub 0C DP steady state insert ... you end up 33. 

I mentioned this an hour ago but the high retreating the way it did - no one really brought that point up ( I didn't either ) or I didn't see anyone discuss it.. But, when the highs move E, it gets harder to maintain < freezing phase change in the region.  It may still dam the air...sure... but it's dammed 35 F 

Even here alone route 2 it's dripping at 32.5 now.  

Mesolow can make up for it a bit by shoving the lower DP air from Maine back southwest.....but we haven't developed the mesolow yet far enough north....doesn't really get into the waters E of BOS and gulf of Maine until late afternoon/tonight....that's when we could see a bit of a shove back SW with the below freezing air. The current icing setup has latently warmed to the point where it is now only an elevation event. Most of the below freezing readings remaining are in ORH county now at elevation. 

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Just now, wx2fish said:

It was pretty well modeled to bounce above freezing during the day today. Even the more aggressive mesos models yestersay really didnt kick in any significant northerly drain until tonight when we get a weak meso low offshore. Granted they seem to have backed off a bit and we may end up more in the 32-34 range

Yeah and to be fair, the GGEM - if one chooses to go that route - does tuck southern NH pretty badly tomorrow morning with a good whack of icing ... 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mesolow can make up for it a bit by shoving the lower DP air from Maine back southwest.....but we haven't developed the mesolow yet far enough north....doesn't really get into the waters E of BOS and gulf of Maine until late afternoon/tonight....that's when we could see a bit of a shove back SW with the below freezing air. The current icing setup has latently warmed to the point where it is now only an elevation event. Most of the below freezing readings remaining are in ORH county now at elevation. 

Right ... my analysis there was literally just wrt to the high pressure/llv barographic situation as it stands now... But agreed, if we get a meso offset we may modulate the other way some. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah and to be fair, the GGEM - if one chooses to go that route - does tuck southern NH pretty badly tomorrow morning with a good whack of icing ... 

If you look at all the guidance, they do develop that low so I think it’s real. Yesterday though it was getting air to 30 near BOS. Now with everything getting a bit more amped up, that cold probably stays near or north of the border. 

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I know most don’t care,  but there could be a quick 1-3 hr high wind event, especially those areas that bust into the warm sector. CAA rapidly takes over.....some guidance is close to 50kt gusts late aftn.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

If you look at all the guidance, they do develop that low so I think it’s real. Yesterday though it was getting air to 30 near BOS. Now with everything getting a bit more amped up, that cold probably stays near or north of the border. 

Hey is there any higher resolution products featuring stream line analysis ... The GGEM has a meso low over the Cape by 18z and I was just wondering if that's now-cast-able -

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know most don’t care,  but there could be a quick 1-3 hr high wind event, especially those areas that bust into the warm sector. CAA rapidly takes over.....some guidance is close to 50kt gusts late aftn.

Hopefully a quick roof ripper in Weymouth? 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I know most don’t care,  but there could be a quick 1-3 hr high wind event, especially those areas that bust into the warm sector. CAA rapidly takes over.....some guidance is close to 50kt gusts late aftn.

I do - I wrote about that several hours ago..  yeah -

Iso. b wind events are tough. Sometimes they look rather obvious for a strike and then you get this unimpressive standard turbine ... other times, the tree canopies get thrashed around and it's so so forecast.  Least that's my experience.. Not sure if the science in prediction is better. 

But this low is deepening while rapidly approaching. Such that the PGF out ahead isn't nearly as expressing as it would/will be upon exit, at which time it's added - but, that means it's even worst because the pressure is starting from a lower initial state than when it arrived due to deepening while it's passing and so forth.   We'll see

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