CIK62 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 The last 7 days of February are averaging 42.5degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +4.8[39.4]. February should end at +4.9[40.2]. 39* here at 6am. 44* by 10am. 49* by 1pm. 50* at 1:30pm. 52* at 2pm. Due to sea breeze, topped out at 53* at 2:30pm. 45* by 10pm. The first 10 days of March are averaging 41degs., or about 2 to 3 degrees AN, but model(06Z,GFS) is snow less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 This has been the driest start to the year since 2012 for NYC and surrounding stations. My last rain event with over 1.00” was back on January 25th. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Precipitation Jan 1 to Feb 23 Missing Count 2020-02-23 3.93 1 2019-02-23 6.11 0 2018-02-23 7.20 0 2017-02-23 6.77 0 2016-02-23 7.52 0 2015-02-23 7.27 0 2014-02-23 8.24 0 2013-02-23 5.30 0 2012-02-23 3.63 0 2011-02-23 6.59 0 2010-02-23 5.17 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 39 here, but good radiational cooling overnight elsewhere. 6am: NYC 40, JFK 30, Teterboro 26, White Plains 27, Farmingdale 27, Morristown 19, Islip 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Morning thoughts... 1. Record heat covers parts of northern Africa. Essaouira, Morocco hit a February record high temperature of 90°. 2. Temperatures will likely soar into the middle and even upper 50s in the Middle Atlantic region today and tomorrow. Washington, DC could see the temperature approach or reach 60°. 3. The powerful polar vortex remains strong. 4. The base case remains a warmer than normal March and Spring in the region. The CFSv2 is now well underway in evolving toward what could be a warmer March outlook for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 1 hour ago, dWave said: 39 here, but good radiational cooling overnight elsewhere. 6am: NYC 40, JFK 30, Teterboro 26, White Plains 27, Farmingdale 27, Morristown 19, Islip 26. Yeah 26° here...temp was bouncing around all night with the subtle wind changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 The temperatures are off to the races. Newark has jumped 14 degrees in a few hours. The warm spots probably go 55-60 degrees today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 At 10 am, the temperature was 45° in White Plains after a morning low of 24°. In nearby Rye, daffodils were now blooming in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 3 hours ago, dWave said: 39 here, but good radiational cooling overnight elsewhere. 6am: NYC 40, JFK 30, Teterboro 26, White Plains 27, Farmingdale 27, Morristown 19, Islip 26. 23 in Muttontown and 24 in Syosset this morning both occurring around 6:30 am. Currently 48 now and rising under sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: This has been the driest start to the year since 2012 for NYC and surrounding stations. My last rain event with over 1.00” was back on January 25th. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Precipitation Jan 1 to Feb 23 Missing Count 2020-02-23 3.93 1 2019-02-23 6.11 0 2018-02-23 7.20 0 2017-02-23 6.77 0 2016-02-23 7.52 0 2015-02-23 7.27 0 2014-02-23 8.24 0 2013-02-23 5.30 0 2012-02-23 3.63 0 2011-02-23 6.59 0 2010-02-23 5.17 0 4.32" here after a record wet Dec. with 8.18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 24 at my house this morning. Meanwhile Manhattan only dropped to 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... 1. Record heat covers parts of northern Africa. Essaouira, Morocco hit a February record high temperature of 90°. 2. Temperatures will likely soar into the middle and even upper 50s in the Middle Atlantic region today and tomorrow. Washington, DC could see the temperature approach or reach 60°. 3. The powerful polar vortex remains strong. 4. The base case remains a warmer than normal March and Spring in the region. The CFSv2 is now well underway in evolving toward what could be a warmer March outlook for the region. Yes and the Polar Vortex has been giving extreme cold where they are suppose to get it, the far north. The Bering Sea ice extent has actually reached the 1981-2010 norm. The ice extent in the Arctic is more than it has been in years. Don't know how long it will last but at least it has put a little dent in the ice melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 29 minutes ago, doncat said: 4.32" here after a record wet Dec. with 8.18". The SE Ridge has kept the heaviest rains to our west since late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 56 minutes ago, uofmiami said: 23 in Muttontown and 24 in Syosset this morning both occurring around 6:30 am. Currently 48 now and rising under sunny skies. 21 here last night, 50 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Absolutely gorgeous outside. Feels like a mid April day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Like an early spring afternoon in the desert with deep blue skies and low humidity. Newark Liberty FAIR 57 9 14% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Absolutely gorgeous outside. Feels like a mid April day. Except for the bone dry air. The very low humidity still leave a hint of winter feel. Dewpoint in single digits will do that. A very nice day nonetheless. More signs of spring poping up today too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFeen1 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Beautiful day in midtown 55 degrees with 17 percent humidity and a wind out of the southwest at 7 mph. Mostly sunny out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 looks like a large fire in the pine barrens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: looks like a large fire in the pine barrens I just cleared and burnt brush from my yard. Stuff was extremely dry and burned rapidly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Controlled burns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 The 13% relative humidity at Newark is the lowest of the year. Newark Liberty FAIR 57 7 13% https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=157&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&year=2020&var=min_rh&dir=above&thres=95&dpi=100&_fmt=png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Hit 55 here earlier, down to 53 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Like an early spring afternoon in the desert with deep blue skies and low humidity. Newark Liberty FAIR 57 9 14% Not unheard of in April to have relative humidity in Central Park under 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 5 hours ago, lee59 said: 24 at my house this morning. Meanwhile Manhattan only dropped to 39. was down to 22 here and 18 the night before-at least that will keep trees dormant and bugs at bay. 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: Absolutely gorgeous outside. Feels like a mid April day. Has a feel of Feb 2002 and Feb 2012-days of blue skies and well above normal temps-hopefully the cloudy damp pattern is behind us. 17 minutes ago, tmagan said: Not unheard of in April to have relative humidity in Central Park under 10%. That's when you tend to see all the red flag warnings-lots of dry brush, winds and very low humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 53 minutes ago, tmagan said: Not unheard of in April to have relative humidity in Central Park under 10%. We are a little early this year. Our lowest annual readings just above or below 10% are usually in March or April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: We are a little early this year. Our lowest annual readings just above or below 10% are usually in March or April. If we actually go La Niña/-PDO this spring, summer, fall....hello SE ridge on roids and epic blowtorch. I really hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: was down to 22 here and 18 the night before-at least that will keep trees dormant and bugs at bay. I was 28 last night and there were still a ton of bugs flying around in the park today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Today was yet another unseasonably mild day in an unseasonably mild February. Daily high temperatures included: Baltimore: 60°; Boston: 58°; Islip: 53°; New York City: 56°; Newark: 58°; Philadelphia: 56°; and, Washington, DC: 59°. Tomorrow will likely see similar warmth in much of the region. Overall, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was +5.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.180. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.926 from 1990. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 2, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 22, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.818 (RMM). The February 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.670. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 76% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Today was yet another unseasonably mild day in an unseasonably mild February. Daily high temperatures included: Baltimore: 60°; Boston: 58°; Islip: 53°; New York City: 56°; Newark: 58°; Philadelphia: 56°; and, Washington, DC: 59°. Tomorrow will likely see similar warmth in much of the region. Overall, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was +5.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.180. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.926 from 1990. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 2, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 22, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.818 (RMM). The February 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.670. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 76% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Any 8-ball ideas on how March could look for us snow-wise? Any chance of a 12"+ incher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 The last 6 days of February are averaging 42.5degs., or about 5degs. AN. Month to date is +5.0[39.8]. February should end near +5.1[40.4]. 41* here at 6am. 43* by 9am. 50* by Noon. The first 11 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS} 42.5degs., or about 3degs. AN. All models are snow less and the EURO looks like it wants to hit 70 in 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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