Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: but it's not a good thing to see..it can not only skew the mean but pretty much make the mean useless. Count how many over .4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 06z eps are coming in east of the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: but it's not a good thing to see..it can not only skew the mean but pretty much make the mean useless. I'm pretty sure miller Bs are less predictable anyway. Northern stream is tougher for models to handle than the southern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Mar 4-6 2001 was the slowest mover i think i've ever seen. Nearly 60hrs. Would love another one of those demons, and have it all snow this time. As far as the UKMET, the snow maps are awful. It appears its counting anything above 0C at the surface as rain. My location is just barely above 0C at the surface (bottom 25mb or so) and the rest of the column is below and another 0.35 falls after that, so id have to say we at least get several inches but the snow map is showing near zero. Yup. Not sure why Sunny believed it verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z eps are coming in east of the 00z run. By a few good tics too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Count how many over .4 QPF shouldn't be a problem with this system (which hopefully will work out to our benefit) but take a look at the individual members for 12z and 18z Saturday...just all over the place. Really tough to generate any sort of idea right now on what to expect. Just now, OSUmetstud said: I'm pretty sure miller Bs are less predictable anyway. Northern stream is tougher for models to handle than the southern. Very true. All the reason why I think in this situation you have to be careful with using just an EPS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Stay the course, east is best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup. Not sure why Sunny believed it verbatim. It's not the maps. It's the model. 925t is torched ahead of the low. I think it's mostly wrong but it's not an clown map error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: By a few good tics too. Good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Meanwhile, a most tempest beast is on the 6z GFS for the following weekend. JFC. This is a first on a clickable sounding lol, 252 hr storms always work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: but it's not a good thing to see..it can not only skew the mean but pretty much make the mean useless. Vehemently agree. There's a lot of referencing of the mean in every thread. But without other context of distribution and SD, a mean is pretty useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: This is a first on a clickable sounding lol, 252 hr storms always work out This deserves a and at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It's not the maps. It's the model. 925t is torched ahead of the low. I think it's mostly wrong but it's not an clown map error. That was my point, the model torches resulting in a faulty clown map. I don’t think I was clear before, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z eps are coming in east of the 00z run. I like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That was my point, the model torches resulting in a faulty clown map. I don’t think I was clear before, my bad. All good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 06z eps members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: All eastern Massachusetts all the time. Well, let's be honest here, we should be focused on the cultural and economic center of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: 06z eps members. 00z had a pretty good cluster of lows that was actually tracking over E MA and even coastal Maine. Looks like we’ve lost most of those members and we’ve added more total whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 00z had a pretty good cluster of lows that was actually tracking over E MA and even coastal Maine. Looks like we’ve lost most of those members and we’ve added more total whiffs. If I was Hazey I would start stocking up. White Juan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: All good. You’d think 0C should be at least 50miles SE, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Looks like 0z euro OP was onto something. SE zones begging for a se shift in trouble of a miss now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 06z eps... considerably East in comparison to 0z . Not loving this ens trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You’d think 0C should be at least 50miles SE, right? I mean initially it could be right but yeah I'd think it would stop its northeast movement as the low cranked and heights crashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 00z had a pretty good cluster of lows that was actually tracking over E MA and even coastal Maine. Looks like we’ve lost most of those members and we’ve added more total whiffs. Nice trade imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks like 0z euro OP was onto something. SE zones begging for a se shift in trouble of a miss now. 06z EPS looks sweet from a track perspective for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 EPS is allowed one swing and a miss it's been pretty consistent overall. My only concern is GEFS is also east so may indicate the start of something but I wouldn't go into full punt mode yet; still too early imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z eps are coming in east of the 00z run. 00z EPS looked great. 06z EPS was a let down. Really wish something besides the UKMET & 00z GFS would jump on board. Is everything onshore with 12z tomorrow's soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 06z EPS looks sweet from a track perspective for many. Not if you factor in the more whiffs. Maybe you get grazed with a couple, still a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shanemacdonald23 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Looks rather interesting for us in Halifax nova Scotia hello all my name is Shane Macdonald from Halifax nova Scotia, found this weather weenie forum so thought to sign up. Alot of sleepless nights model watching. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nice trade imo. OP being consistent is not a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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