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Rjay

Mid to Long Range Threats

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12 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

This should put a wrap on the season. 

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Until it swings through and then gets cold and then warms up. 10-15 is like a million years away. Just yesterday you posted day 10-15 cold on the eps. Take these long range outputs with a grain of salt whatever they show. 

But persistence is key and the warmth has won out.

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Yep, full latitude trough dumps into the west by 3/6. All she wrote...

Yep you should get ready for spring

There are people who are still tracking and want snow.

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13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Until it swings through and then gets cold and then warms up. 10-15 is like a million years away. Just yesterday you posted day 10-15 cold on the eps. Take these long range outputs with a grain of salt whatever they show. 

But persistence is key and the warmth has won out.

 

The " colder " is there.

But that`s early March now and not late Jan. 

 

So 7 days of - 3 while Normal splits will be 42/32 is not frigid.

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Oh well. 

 

 

 

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One thing I noticed some of the guys on here. If it shows warm and rain the next 15 days, we should accept it cause it’s for sure going to happen but if it’s cold and dry or cold and snowy it ain’t happening it’s 15 days away. It’s kinda biased and annoying for anyone reading through!

 

Anyway it’s 36 and cold in midtown feels like February just doesn’t look like it

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

One thing I noticed some of the guys on here. If it shows warm and rain the next 15 days, we should accept it cause it’s for sure going to happen but if it’s cold and dry or cold and snowy it ain’t happening it’s 15 days away. It’s kinda biased and annoying for anyone reading through!

 

Anyway it’s 36 and cold in midtown feels like February just doesn’t look like it

Well, who has been right more? There are seasons like this. Sometimes several in a row. Sometimes more than that IIRC ( I listed some years in another thread ). It would be the smart bet to go against any additional snow the rest of this year, but of course no one can say for sure. 

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12 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Well, who has been right more? There are seasons like this. Sometimes several in a row. Sometimes more than that IIRC ( I listed some years in another thread ). It would be the smart bet to go against any additional snow the rest of this year, but of course no one can say for sure. 

It’s not about being right or wrong, we consistently tell everyone that models past a few days are a toss up. This year has been exceptionally unlucky with snow but that doesn’t mean anything I still don’t trust models showing a snowstorm for next week or a warm up...as much as a snow weenie I am I still have to keep calm and let it play out 

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18 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Well, who has been right more? There are seasons like this. Sometimes several in a row. Sometimes more than that IIRC ( I listed some years in another thread ). It would be the smart bet to go against any additional snow the rest of this year, but of course no one can say for sure. 

Well lets not act like winters like this are a common occurrence either because that's being disingenuous. Right now you're staring at the fourth least snowiest year ever in 151 years in NYC and most likely one of the top 5 warmest January-February combos in history. Those combos don't happen that often.

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47 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

One thing I noticed some of the guys on here. If it shows warm and rain the next 15 days, we should accept it cause it’s for sure going to happen but if it’s cold and dry or cold and snowy it ain’t happening it’s 15 days away. It’s kinda biased and annoying for anyone reading through!

 

Anyway it’s 36 and cold in midtown feels like February just doesn’t look like it

In this winter its been the case though, every storm/pattern has trended worse as we get closer, I can't think of a storm or pattern since December that has actually trended more favorable as we got closer so if it shows rain now its probably going to rain. We did snow from the GLC which I guess was the win of the winter if you consider around 2 inches for the metro area a win 

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2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Well lets not act like winters like this are a common occurrence either because that's being disingenuous. Right now you're staring at the fourth least snowiest year ever in 151 years in NYC and most likely one of the top 5 warmest January-February combos in history. Those combos don't happen that often.

No but crap winters are not uncommon either. This one is exceptionally bad ( or good if you hate snow and cold )but there have been plenty that were bad, but not this bad. Come on, we saw years of them in the 80's and 90's. Now, sometimes areas in the subforum got hits while others didn't; so that didn't change the fact that IMBY years like 89, 90, 91, 97, 98 were pretty bad. Even 92 would still be considered bad, just because we got two events in late March doesn't make up for a poor winter. i'd say under 20 inches for the season is bad. 

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14 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

No but crap winters are not uncommon either. This one is exceptionally bad ( or good if you hate snow and cold )but there have been plenty that were bad, but not this bad. Come on, we saw years of them in the 80's and 90's. Now, sometimes areas in the subforum got hits while others didn't; so that didn't change the fact that IMBY years like 89, 90, 91, 97, 98 were pretty bad. Even 92 would still be considered bad, just because we got two events in late March doesn't make up for a poor winter. i'd say under 20 inches for the season is bad. 

Agreed, my point was only that this one is historically bad so far and will probably end up a top 5 stinker snow wise and temp wise in NYC when all is said and done.

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4 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

It’s not about being right or wrong, we consistently tell everyone that models past a few days are a toss up. This year has been exceptionally unlucky with snow but that doesn’t mean anything I still don’t trust models showing a snowstorm for next week or a warm up...as much as a snow weenie I am I still have to keep calm and let it play out 

It is about being accurate. The people who have been saying don't trust the cold on the models are not saying that because they are biased. They are using skill and knowledge of the setup and the worldwide patterns. This knowledge is often better than a computer program. Remember models are built by humans, and it is humans that have the skills necessary for meteorology. Anyone can look at a model and say look it says cold. One of the big issues is people see snow on a model and think that will be the outcome, meanwhile there are often big keys that the models are not picking up on.

Further, your statement of "this year has been exceptionally unlucky with snow but that doesn't mean anything" is not scientific at all. Do not let your emotions get in the way. Look at the pattern. Look at temperature departures from normal throughout the entire northern hemisphere. It is not just us that is having a snowless winter. Much or Europe and Russia are having a complete ratter of a year. After next week you are in March. This is the time of year where people ignore that below average in March does NOT mean always mean freezing. Average daily high for Central Park for today, February 20th, is 42.6F, by March 15th that daily high average is 49.2F and the daily mean is 42.0F. Even a -5 departure does not get the job done. It is one reason why NYC's snow season ends so quickly, especially compared to further upstate. Statistically speaking winter here is done (around the metro area) by March 15th. Can it still snow? Yes, but it will not last long. Spring Training games begin on Saturday. It is time to acknowledge this season blew and WILL NOT reach average for snowfall. At this point I am just hoping we can pull off one dusting before the season is truly done. 

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7 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Anecdotally I can say that I agree that the spring and early summers after low/no snow winters  have dramatically lower numbers of ticks and fewer of those are as aggressive as they are after big winters with long duration snowpacks. Last year was one of the lowest infestations in a long time, spring 2012 was even better and I think that was because it was drier.

Currently in our data going back to the late 70s (before I was even born) 2012 was the lowest tick season on record for us. Last year was among the bottom 5 as well. We are VERY interested on how this season will be. Early indicators are pointing to a low season.

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8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Pattern of persistence! This nightmare is over after the 4th 

83117BDC-60DF-418D-98D5-BFE0B4748304.png

All fine and good as long as we do not take steps back to winter once the warm air moves in. Let’s close the door on this winter. (If you could call it that) I hate to say it but without a major global pattern change I would expect more of the same next winter. 

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17 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

One thing I noticed some of the guys on here. If it shows warm and rain the next 15 days, we should accept it cause it’s for sure going to happen but if it’s cold and dry or cold and snowy it ain’t happening it’s 15 days away. It’s kinda biased and annoying for anyone reading through!

 

Anyway it’s 36 and cold in midtown feels like February just doesn’t look like it

I understand what you are saying but if you had to bet, would you bet on warm and rain or cold and snowy?

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We either have an early strong phase and get cutters to freakin Alaska, or we have kickers OTS. Sometimes when the Models are transitioning from one to the other we get what the GFS showed at 12 days away. But fear not, this will correct shortly!

 

We just can't thread the needle this year.

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2 hours ago, PB-99 said:

1583539200-SNqcbILWiXU.png

This will probably end up right . Everytime the Eps showed cold in the 10-15 day range it never  verified.

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19 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

One thing I noticed some of the guys on here. If it shows warm and rain the next 15 days, we should accept it cause it’s for sure going to happen but if it’s cold and dry or cold and snowy it ain’t happening it’s 15 days away. It’s kinda biased and annoying for anyone reading through!

 

Anyway it’s 36 and cold in midtown feels like February just doesn’t look like it

I hear what you're saying, but this season when the models say wet, it verifies. When they say snow, they don't. 

 

The models can really only be trusted as long as they don't forecast snow. @snowman19 has not only hacked the models, he's managed to hack the Pacific AND the Atlantic as well

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2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Just for laughs, the 6Z GFS this morning buries NWNJ and the HV with 30 inches of snow 12 days from now. Given the clairvoyance of the GFS long range this year start preparing now.

gfs_asnow_neus_55.thumb.png.5ae4f2d4851ebf38bdd171700fe401f3.png

12Z has it too fwiw (very little). Not holding my breath.

 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

The only thing I'll say is that is within the window we have and sometimes we get a nice storm before a pattern flip to warmer. 

Give me a monster blizzard followed beautiful Spring weather, yes please.

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48 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This says it all right here, the GFS fantasy “blizzard” is a cutter on the EPS. New EPS through 3/7: 

 

I thought you are done tracking

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