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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs day 10 another shot . H5 looks better 

The storm after the storm is like the backup QB. Looks great on the sideline but once they need to get in there and play...not so much. 

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs day 10 another shot . H5 looks better 

Eh. Verbatim pos tilted trough, looks like a glorified frontal passage to me. I’ve seen how those play out 

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If next year is anything like this year I'm retiring from this dumb hobby. I was semi retired in the fall but old habits die hard I suppose

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t know what storm it was, would have been sometime in the early 90s, but there was a situation where a forecast for some light rain turned into a 3-6” snowstorm just west of philly because a storm amplified just enough to CCB thump and create its own cold. It was in one of those dreadful warm winters between 1988-1993.   A small area just west of 95 (I mean just west, I got maybe 1” in south NJ but we were visiting family friends that lived just southwest of Philly and they got 5”) but everywhere around even north was 40 degrees. That’s kind of what we need to happen here if there is no phase. 

If we get a NS phase that would inject true cold into the backside so the CCB wouldn’t have that problem but would also blast even more warmth up the east side so there would be no WAA snows ahead of it.  So we would need the perfect upper low phase and track. There are fatal flaws without supreme luck in both scenarios. 

Yeah that could always work, and produce localized heavy snow, in some cases east or south of places where precip is light/mixed and not accumulating. See that happen in early Spring storms sometimes. I would put that in the 5-10% probability at our latitude in this case. If this storm is going to deepen enough to CCB clobber a location, it will likely be to our NE.

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If next year is anything like this year I'm retiring from this dumb hobby. I was semi retired in the fall but old habits die hard I suppose

Or you can cross the abyss into my world and get paid to do it. I enjoy your posts and expertise. If you and PSU Hoffman ever decide on a Met career I think you’d be a great asset to either WPC or CPC with your knack for pattern recognition and analysis. 

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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs day 10 another shot . H5 looks better 

 Snark and skepticism aside that day 10 time period might be our best chance from all these flawed lottery ticket threats.  

As the pattern goes through it’s predictable every 2 week flip there is an actual window of opportunity. Even if we assume the progression is what we fear and we end up back in a pac ridge western trough nightmare, as the Hudson ridge progresses east there is a period where a shit of actual cold gets ejected from AK down behind the departing Canada ridge. That ridge then traverses the NAO domain (as Ralph pointed out) which will help press that cold into the east of only temporarily. Assuming we continue the wave train that would create a 3-5 day window of opportunity before the pac ridge dumps the next trough into the west and we ridge away. In theory that would be our best look of this god awful season. 

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3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Or you can cross the abyss into my world and get paid to do it

I’m genuinely into it, would it be a good topic to study in school and do as a job? I’ve heard it requires a lot of calculus in College... which I’m ready for!

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Just now, Rhino16 said:

I’m genuinely into it, would it be a good topic to study in school and do as a job? I’ve heard it requires a lot of calculus in College... which I’m ready for!

Yeah, lots of calculus, physics based calc, chemistry. I unfortunately couldn’t get thru it. 

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2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Or you can cross the abyss into my world and get paid to do it

Relfecting back on my entire life I've often wondered if I missed my niche path. I read meteorology textbooks in college for fun. Lol. Who does that?

It's a tough field to excel financially and that is what held me back. This was before I knew about prop energy trading firms and how much they pay for an edge in wx prediction. 

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah, lots of calculus, physics based calc, chemistry. I unfortunately couldn’t get thru it. 

I’m studying calc a bit on my own before taking it next year. We’ll see how that goes!

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Relfecting back on my entire life I've often wondered if I missed my niche path. I read meteorology textbooks in college for fun. Lol. Who does that?

It's a tough field to excel financially and that is what held me back. This was before I knew about prop energy trading firms and how much they pay for an edge in wx prediction. 

I updated my post above. You and PSU would be great at WPC or CPC. The way to go for good salary/benefits is NWS/NOAA.  I’ve had a wonderful 20 year career. You can move around as well. Energy firms pay more but much more stress. 

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Most everything working against us and likely to continue right into the spring.  Im just hoping the -NAO doesn’t take in April with 50F RA/DZ patterns. 

Good points.

I can certainly see a record low snowfall total for this winter season. Tracking lately has no real inner-fulfillment.  

The STJ showed up, but meaningless, in a base state of zero cold air, no blocking, cutters, progressive systems, etc.  

If we don't score in the 10  day window or late in Feb or March snow totals in the Coastal Plain and in my area as well might be just a trace to an inch.  

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Relfecting back on my entire life I've often wondered if I missed my niche path. I read meteorology textbooks in college for fun. Lol. Who does that?

It's a tough field to excel financially and that is what held me back. This was before I knew about prop energy trading firms and how much they pay for an edge in wx prediction. 

Salary starts low but you’ll get where you need to be. I started as a GS5 step 1, I’m now going into a 13 step 8. That plus all the OT with storm activations and you do very well.

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8 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

I’m genuinely into it, would it be a good topic to study in school and do as a job? I’ve heard it requires a lot of calculus in College... which I’m ready for!

The Atmospheric Science/Meteorology track is heavily weighted on calculus and physics. It’s a bear. 

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I'd love to get into the weather field. Seems like I missed my calling as well, but calc, physics and chemistry were a real struggle for me. I was much more a history/English guy.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

I'd love to get into the weather field. Seems like I missed my calling as well, but calc, physics and chemistry were a real struggle for me. I was much more a history/English guy.

Yeah, same but I was more of a earth science, geography kinda guy which is what my actual degree is in. 

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LOL at the despair over that gfs run. That thing is ripe with possibilities. If you’re looking for a locked in definitive outcome, try your local psychic.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

I'd love to get into the weather field. Seems like I missed my calling as well, but calc, physics and chemistry were a real struggle for me. I was much more a history/English guy.

Yeah as much as I love weather...that math would make me run for the hills, lol Nope!!

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL at the despair over that gfs run. That thing is ripe with possibilities. If you’re looking for a locked in definitive outcome, try your local psychic.

I would feel a lot better if we had an arctic air mass in place. It’s a reason to look at every model run the next few days, so I’ll take 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL at the despair over that gfs run. That thing is ripe with possibilities. If you’re looking for a locked in definitive outcome, try your local psychic.

Yeah I don't get it, lol The thing was just showing a cutter 3 runs ago...and each model has been showing different solutions. If ya try to parse details now...you'll go mad!

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL at the despair over that gfs run. That thing is ripe with possibilities. If you’re looking for a locked in definitive outcome, try your local psychic.

I agree. I thought it was a great run with just enough possibilities to trend into something special. 

 

 

 

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

I would feel a lot better if we had an arctic air mass in place. It’s a reason to look at every model run the next few days, so I’ll take 

And really...without that airmass, all the tiny details that we need to make snow are gonna be jumping all over the place until at least Wednesday...So between now and then we gonna be seeing all kinds of runs, lol

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Just now, Wonderdog said:

I agree. I thought it was a great run with just enough possibilities to trend into something special. 

 

 

 

Agreed. Would much rather start from there than yesterday's 12z cutter, lol

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I don't get it, lol The thing was just showing a cutter 3 runs ago...and each model has been showing different solutions. If ya try to parse details now...you'll go mad!

Yep agree, I am sure we will get a different look until we are about 4 days. 

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7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I'd love to get into the weather field. Seems like I missed my calling as well, but calc, physics and chemistry were a real struggle for me. I was much more a history/English guy.

Hey, hope you folks don't mind a visit from an out-of-region poster (currently living near Rochester NY but did spend most of the 1990s in MD/VA) and this is probably more of a banter post, but the talk about math and meteorology caught my eye. I was fascinated by weather growing up and read every book I could find in the library. So I went ahead and studied meteorology eventually getting a PhD and working in applied research. Anyway, my recollection...and things may have changed since I got my BS in 1984...the math required for a BS wasn't all that bad. Yes, you need to be able to handle basic calculus  but I don't remember anyone flunking out or having to change their major because of the math requirements. Some had more trouble than others, of course, but even if you struggled with the math classes you might be able to get through a met program.

Now, at the MS/PHD level things are different! First semester of grad school we all had to take "Intro to Geophysical Fluid Dynamics" taught by a theoretical guy. All the derivations were in tensor notation which many of us had never seen before. I believe a couple did drop out but most were able to get through even that. Lots of nonlinear equations, solving for eigenvectors...I was able to do it at the time but really have not used that stuff since.

Anyway, sorry for the off topic. I come to this forum regularly to read the discussions about long range patterns, which I think are the best on the entire forum.

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34 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

The Atmospheric Science/Meteorology track is heavily weighted on calculus and physics. It’s a bear. 

indeed it is.  i scrapped my way through a bs in math from umd and have thought about graduate met programs periodically since i graduated years ago (maybe it would help the quality of my posts lol).  having the right professor matters.  there were some classes i did well in that most said were difficult (i liked diffeq/linear algebra/stats), but i found calculus based physics to be a grind bc of all the formulas and just not having enough time to excel in it when you've got 4 other tedious classes.  you really need to be all in on the met career.  i'm in IT now and like others on here, i'm pretty ok with met as a hobby, but who knows what'll happen.

oh, and it's the LR thread, so go euro...

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Anything hopeful I will take. This does fit the time period down the road in which the vortex may start to weaken,  and the calls for a - NAO to set in towards later Feb and early March.  We can only hope at this point. 

  

 

 

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If you want to focus in on a period of interest in regards to the vortex then look to Feb 1 st to Feb 5 th

This period is where the heat flux starts to move poleward. These have been rare this season so far.

Will it be enough, tune in during early Feb to see what transpires. 

 

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Anything hopeful I will take. This does fit the time period down the road in which the vortex may start to weaken,  and the calls for a - NAO to set in towards later Feb and early March.  We can only hope at this point. 

  

 

 

I really look forward to your mostly hopeful updates on the current thoughts in the meteorology community. Keep it up!

I haven’t lost faith things could improve later Feb into March and now that January is toast and early Feb on life support that prospect isn’t sounding so bad. But a month ago no one wanted to hear “we have to wait until the very end of winter to have a real chance”. Right about now most would sign on the dotted line for a Feb 15 pattern flip. 

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