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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

@frd I highly respect HM and love his approach. He's a unique thinker when making sense out things. That said, he's mentioned a flip to the better multiple times this year and none of the scenarios he's basing his outlook on have materialized. No different than what we've been doing in here. So now late Feb is the "new target" for greener pastures. I'll believe it when I see it in real time. There is nothing anyone can post or write about that increases my confidence in a better regime. We're in a never ending wash cycle of different ways to have a crappy east coast snow pattern. Will it change? Maybe but my money is on nope. 

Once the “two weeks away” cycle starts it rarely relinquishes. To a degree we did waste below average temps Nov. into Dec.

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll reluctantly admit that I kinda like what all 3 ens are doing d10+... Cold continental air dropping out of Canada with an W-E oriented boundary. We haven't seen much of that this year so skepticism is warranted for now. However, this type of upper level pattern can be friendly here. We tend to do ok with boundaries like this more often than not. Not a big storm look but no doubt one that can deliver sheared/overrunning events. I really like the 12z EPS d10-15 h5 mean. You can easily envision cold pressing south over a wide expanse with the door open for the stj to get involved. General storm track would be between the light blue and white contours

 

hF4zNM3.png

This period has been on the radar for a while now and is gaining legs. Like u said not a KU look verbatim but plenty of opportunities and cold air around finally. I think this is the period we score finally (feb 6-14ish).....im not sold on next weekend just yet....too fragile a setup imo. The day 10-15 looks we could botch and fumble our way into something....more of a forgiving pattern opportunity. 

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:

no way it rains with a 531 dm ULL over us...no freaking way

 

Seems hard to believe in general but there is a very important key ingredient missing... Zero hp where we need it to fight off the mechanics of wrapping plentiful warm air at the surface and in the mids. Check out the mid level wind barbs north of us on approach. SW flow all the way well up into Canada. 

gfs_T850_neus_27.png

How exactly should we expect the mids to stay cold with this setup? Magic? Miller As are usually strong warm storms and we get saved by a bannana high or any hp to our north feed cold and fighting warmth wrapping in. That's missing here and we can't ignore it. It's possible that the antecedent air is good enough. OTOH- the way I see it is it's perfectly reasonable and logical to get rained on with the gfs solution

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Seems hard to believe in general but there is a very important key ingredient missing... Zero hp where we need it to fight off the mechanics of wrapping plentiful warm air at the surface and in the mids. Check out the mid level wind barbs north of us on approach. SW flow all the way well up into Canada. 

gfs_T850_neus_27.png

How exactly should we expect the mids to stay cold with this setup? Magic? Miller As are usually strong warm storms and we get saved by a bannana high or any hp to our north feed cold and fighting warmth wrapping in. That's missing here and we can't ignore it. It's possible that the antecedent air is good enough. OTOH- the way I see it is it's perfectly reasonable and logical to get rained on with the gfs solution

Any prolonged WAA precip in front is doomed. But this run CCBd us to death. It was just 2-3 degrees too warm. We simply need that to be an error. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Seems hard to believe in general but there is a very important key ingredient missing... Zero hp where we need it to fight off the mechanics of wrapping plentiful warm air at the surface and in the mids. Check out the mid level wind barbs north of us on approach. SW flow all the way well up into Canada. 

gfs_T850_neus_27.png

How exactly should we expect the mids to stay cold with this setup? Magic? Miller As are usually strong warm storms and we get saved by a bannana high or any hp to our north feed cold and fighting warmth wrapping in. That's missing here and we can't ignore it. It's possible that the antecedent air is good enough. OTOH- the way I see it is it's perfectly reasonable and logical to get rained on with the gfs solution

Exactly. I have pointed this out several times. I literally have zero interest in this storm for my yard. Blue ridge and westward it can work. Piedmont region needs like every box checked to make it work. I am interested in what happens when we finally get the Pac flood out of Canada and some cross polar flow back around the 6th.

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Seems hard to believe in general but there is a very important key ingredient missing... Zero hp where we need it to fight off the mechanics of wrapping plentiful warm air at the surface and in the mids. Check out the mid level wind barbs north of us on approach. SW flow all the way well up into Canada. 

gfs_T850_neus_27.png

How exactly should we expect the mids to stay cold with this setup? Magic? Miller As are usually strong warm storms and we get saved by a bannana high or any hp to our north feed cold and fighting warmth wrapping in. That's missing here and we can't ignore it. It's possible that the antecedent air is good enough. OTOH- the way I see it is it's perfectly reasonable and logical to get rained on with the gfs solution

So uh...are we past the point where such a feature could pop up on future model runs...or is it still possible?

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Any prolonged WAA precip in front is doomed. But this run CCBd us to death. It was just 2-3 degrees too warm. We simply need that to be an error. 

For my yard specifically I'm pessimistic. When's the last miller A poured rain and then CCB'd 5-10" close to the cities?

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