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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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5 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

can you post? thanks

nah--its too much effort. a general 2-4. congrats

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9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How many waves are we lookin' at here?

It looks active with multiple waves both in the NS and STJ ejecting off the pac. Some aren’t pure STJ waves, they dive in off the western jet split. But it doesn’t matter to us how they get to the gulf coast. It’s what the do after. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

But we have had 72 hours of incremental but consistent improvements both in the day 5-10 and 10-15 pattern. And now there are hints it might even be getting better after.  Long range needs to be viewed like some abstract painting done by a drunk 4 year old.

 

It's really unfair to say such things about Pablo Picasso! ;)

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 Long range needs to be viewed like some abstract painting done by a drunk 4 year old.

Dude, that't the best phrase I've read on this board all year.

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1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

 

 750 mile variance is futility of prediction in action 

The guidance has been EXCELLENT this year, unless you place unrealistic expectations on the specifics of long range.  They have generally nailed the longwave pattern generalities from distance.  And inside 5 days when details matter they have been good with those...no major short range busts.  But yes if you expect the exact location of a synoptic system to be perfect from day 8 then I suppose they suck.  But that would be like cutting any player who can't hit a half court shot every time.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The guidance has been EXCELLENT this year, unless you place unrealistic expectations on the specifics of long range.  They have generally nailed the longwave pattern generalities from distance.  And inside 5 days when details matter they have been good with those...no major short range busts.  But yes if you expect the exact location of a synoptic system to be perfect from day 8 then I suppose they suck.  But that would be like cutting any player who can't hit a half court shot every time.  

Crushing the analogies today, aren't we... 

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

i think my where is live is actually in the 4 shade...10 miles east is in the 3 lol!

12Z WB EPS most of which is after Day 10.  Again, I will get more interested if probabilities start going up under Day 10.

09D15F1C-9D9E-4D64-B7EF-EB338DBEFA76.png

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15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

12Z WB EPS most of which is after Day 10.  Again, I will get more interested if probabilities start going up under Day 10.

09D15F1C-9D9E-4D64-B7EF-EB338DBEFA76.png

Getting better little yellow mixed in those blues 

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16 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

12Z WB EPS most of which is after Day 10.  Again, I will get more interested if probabilities start going up under Day 10.

09D15F1C-9D9E-4D64-B7EF-EB338DBEFA76.png

Yay digital snow!

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The guidance has been EXCELLENT this year, unless you place unrealistic expectations on the specifics of long range.  They have generally nailed the longwave pattern generalities from distance.  And inside 5 days when details matter they have been good with those...no major short range busts.  But yes if you expect the exact location of a synoptic system to be perfect from day 8 then I suppose they suck.  But that would be like cutting any player who can't hit a half court shot every time.  

We know you are a model lover with 6 paragraph discussions three times a day

over the last 15 years I have had a different type of outcome in attempting to utilize them.

it would be interesting for other board participants to chime in as to their experiences and beliefs .

the 750 mike swing in a few days that you describe as “excellent work” I would have to disagree with. 

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If the gfs slows down anymore this could become a white Christmas threat 
Its not even a white feb 1 threat

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I’m pretty confident that it’s not going to play out like that on the gfs.  Just call it a hunch. 
So what's your hunch?

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36 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

We know you are a model lover with 6 paragraph discussions three times a day

over the last 15 years I have had a different type of outcome in attempting to utilize them.

it would be interesting for other board participants to chime in as to their experiences and beliefs .

the 750 mike swing in a few days that you describe as “excellent work” I would have to disagree with. 

What 750 mile swing?  

This was the furthest south op run of the gfs

919B3042-6151-4038-B4EE-683F403D5CDA.thumb.png.c91221b8eab57d99e47385d551ef0827.png

this is the furthest south gefs run 

4D5905F7-476D-4CEE-93DE-3192F8054DA1.thumb.png.0e3daad81e2bce5bcba54330515460c3.png

this is what it’s projected day 3 now 

C1B74087-CAB4-433F-A45D-CC8BC173A347.thumb.png.adb77e589d32c9e660136cac83615557.png

that is 200-250 miles at most  

And this is what the Gefs showed when it was 7 and 8 days out!!!

182D59BB-2C20-4713-AC4A-9D082F870E1E.thumb.png.e0e93e1aac038b4f78b5fc29da804df5.pngA7AA1554-CDD6-4BE4-950E-373029998C70.thumb.png.d34a213480653451c4cfeb4669b0646d.png

There was only a 24 hour period where some guidance was 200 miles too far south, from 6 days out.  Before that it was spot ok. And by 5 days it corrected again back to the correct idea.  There was one fluke euro op run that was a crazy anomaly and 1-2 gfs runs over 10 days that deviated from the consensus.  The guidance gave me a pretty clear picture of what was going to happen from day 9 on.  Plus you have to inject climo knowledge and history to the nwp output.  If a couple fluke op runs over 10 days fooled anyone that’s operator error not a tool malfunction.  

 

 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

Total snow so far on 18z gfs...578637e004ff4606a11f7f9c6f994af7.jpg

That’s not a whole lot unless I am reading it wrong.  Looking good!

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Just now, Ji said:

Total snow so far on 18z gfs...578637e004ff4606a11f7f9c6f994af7.jpg

Looking good! If you want to track a shut out. Hahaha. Not going down like that. Seems like plenty of changes ahead (famous last words). 

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OMG! The 18z GFS just nailed the next 12 days and we're screwed! No reason to look at models anymore cuz it's over. Unless you dig into the ensembles for a better picture of possibilities

UOj5QKy.png

 

This is one busiest ens runs inside of 10 days we've had all year. Perfectly illustrates that multiple waves and progressive flow is causing havoc on NWP. The 30th through Feb 4th is a very large window with MASSIVE spread in sensible wx outcomes. I predict wild swings on ops every 6 hours for the rest of the week. Ji might need rx meds to get him through the week. Either way he'll require daily group counseling in this thread. 

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32 minutes ago, Ji said:

Total snow so far on 18z gfs...578637e004ff4606a11f7f9c6f994af7.jpg

The 0.1 line is pretty close to you dude, enjoy what you get 

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Just now, benjammin said:

That is most definitely NOT a Shenandoah Valley "bullseye."

That’s a jonjon bullseye

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