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Snowstorms

January 17-18 Winter Storm

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8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I think the southeast surface winds plus snow cover will provide resistance from temps rising much until the surface low finally gets closer and winds shift to south then southwest.

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A couple hours either way seems like it may matter in this setup.  The ice amounts are right around the point where it goes from more of a nuisance to having more significant problems especially when factoring in the wind.  Also how does laying down wettish snow onto the trees first affect things.  

 

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GRR staying with the advisory calling for a “general 4-8” with most of it falling by 10:00 am Saturday. 
 

General? More “significant” when it’s not common for the current season or last for that matter haha. 

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12 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

If the Canuk verifies I swear I'm laying all my Loonies on it the rest of the year.  It's done the best in my area 120 hrs out this winter all the way back to Halloween.  Like most, the other models have waffled around here and it has too at times.  But seriously, the Canuk has been pretty on within 5 days, and especially within 3 days for us in the south this year.  Maybe moving forward the spirit of Neil is gonna make it even better with a Natural Science algorithm :sun: 

 

5 hours ago, afterimage said:

A fellow Hoosier Rush fan, I like it!  My company is named after a Rush song.... way too early

While I'm waiting on the highlight of winter, 2" of snow followed by zr, then rain, rock on fellow Hoosiers!  Neil was the man.

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The HRRR verbatim would be a crippling winter storm over here. 0.10-0.20 of ice here, with 6"+ of snow. Not to mention the light rates of the FZR would be ideal for ice accretion, as well as coming off a single digit arctic airmass yesterday.

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I've picked up 0.7" in the last 25 minutes, so my rate is about 1.5"/hr.  If there's anything to complain about, the flakes are very small.

1.5"/hr with small flakes is doing some work.

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Great to hear saturation is ahead of schedule. I expect the same here as well as we already have considerable low level and mid level cloud cover locally.

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Snowfall warning issued for all of Southern Ontario. Latest NAM and HRRR have 6-8" for the GTA.

Feeling more confident with ~6" for the GTA, ~7"  for Windsor and ~4-5" for Hamilton. 

 

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49 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

GRR staying with the advisory calling for a “general 4-8” with most of it falling by 10:00 am Saturday. 
 

General? More “significant” when it’s not common for the current season or last for that matter haha. 

Yes and remind me why this isn't a WSW? Clearly we could get 6" in 12 hours or less. It's amazing how they let recent history (last weekend's debacle) influence their judgement and tone.

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Saturation occurred rapidly here. Went from a few flurries to full on moderate snow in minutes. Like Hawkeye states, flakes are pretty puny. Pixie dust. So that may hurt totals. I already see mixed precipitation creeping it's way north towards Macomb. Feel like I may see more mixed precip than snow

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Donut hole closing fast on KLOT. Most places locally should be snowing by 4pm. That'll help with snow totals. I think 3-5" is a good forecast for much of the metro I-80 and north, with localized amounts up to 6" a decent possibility. Ice accumulations are a bit uncertain but a fairly broad area of 1/10"+ is increasingly likely.

 

Whether we get the swath of 1/4"+ advertised by some of the models will depend on if there's a transition to a few hours of sleet instead of a quicker flip to ZR and then how long temps take to get above freezing. The 18z NAM runs sided with a 2-3 hour period of sleet followed by ZR, which mitigates ice amounts. I don't buy the really big amounts from the RAP/HRRR but still think we could get a fairly narrow swath of around 1/4" or a bit more.

 

 

 

 

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Much of Iowa has picked up 4-6", the exception being NE/E Iowa where snows started later.

So things seem to be on track for 3-6" area wide around here. Lower totals farther south in the CWA though.

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Think I'm going to stay up really late.  Hopefully some of you will keep me company.  :P  Screw sleep.  This will probably be the best action imby so far this winter and I want to see how much ice happens. 

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Think I'm going to stay up really late.  Hopefully some of you will keep me company.    Screw sleep.  This will probably be the best action imby so far this winter and I want to see how much ice happens. 
This could be a pretty unique event to get solid advisory snow amounts in a good chunk of the CWA and then advisory+ icing in the same areas. I definitely can't think of any events like that since I got here in 2010.

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Just now, A-L-E-K said:

best snow gonna be over before my bedtime 

zzzzz

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3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

This could be a pretty unique event to get solid advisory snow amounts in a good chunk of the CWA and then advisory+ icing in the same areas. I definitely can't think of any events like that since I got here in 2010.

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The storm that I remember best is the one at the end of January 2002.  That one had higher snow amounts in the area though.  I had about 8" of snow, a half inch or so of sleet and a really minor glaze of ice (was in Lake IN back then about 5 miles from where I am now) as the heavier ice was literally only a few miles south.  That was just a moisture firehose... go back and look at radars from back then.  

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Snow started 15 mins ago and it’s already moderate snow and accumulating nicely.  Visibility is definitely below a mile 

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