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Snowstorms

January 17-18 Winter Storm

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19 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 00z NAM would indicate a wall of WAA precip during the late afternoon and evening and then dry slot with lighter rates 06z and beyond. Because of the support for heavy rates due to very strong isentropic ascent, dynamic cooling could in that case keep a bulk of the QPF as snow for much of the Chicago metro. The transition over to sleet and freezing rain would happen when precip rates lighten as the mid-level dry slot moves overhead.

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There's the case for not flipping over to a mix too early.  But man, how many times have we sat here and watched the waa overperform.  Past experience says to be cautious but hopefully enough precip gets down before the thermal profiles become more hostile. 

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The GFS looks as good as it does in northern IL because of what happens between 54-57 hours.  Right as 850 mb temps are about to go above freezing, the northward progress stops with even some minor cooling.

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Even though warning criteria may not be met the combination of advisory-level snow and advisory-level ice may warrant a Winter Storm Watch in many locations with decisions on how to upgrade made later. 

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Liking the chances for a good 3-5" of snow with nice rates for here/QC area.  The thermal ridge with the mixed precip types may compact/melt some of what falls, but vigorous CAA kicks in Sat morning and will stop that.  

Looks like some 50mph wind gust potential on Sat in the midst of that strong CAA.  

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2 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Even though warning criteria may not be met the combination of advisory-level snow and advisory-level ice may warrant a Winter Storm Watch in many locations with decisions on how to upgrade made later. 

I'm guessing IWX, GRR and DTX will def host one. LOT is more questionable 

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I guess last weekend's storm's Euro is this weekend's storm's GEM: looking consistently promising for several runs before pulling the rug out on the excitement.  If it happens, the big question is when is the rug pulled?

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4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

I'm guessing IWX, GRR and DTX will def host one. LOT is more questionable 

They more than likely won't until tomorrow afternoon with the warning coming friday afternoon. IWX maybe their northern tier but not much more.

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4 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

I guess last weekend's storm's Euro is this weekend's storm's GEM: looking consistently promising for several runs before pulling the rug out on the excitement.  If it happens, the big question is when is the rug pulled?

tenor.gif

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16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Don't have the ice map but that seemed like a pretty icy Euro run. 

Ice map cometh (along with snow)

 

5BE80742-6BAB-4CF7-95ED-9C98499929D7.png

1E18BDF5-E4BB-488A-9CA9-72842F166AC3.png

61FA5124-E53A-41C4-AF07-5BF869097F81.png

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Well, another lame write-up from GRR. They used to be so detailed but now the majority of the time the write-ups are very short...

 

Not much change to the model guidance on the evolution of the
storm over the weekend. We are thinking a general 3 to 5 inch
event with most of that falling Friday night in a pattern of
strong warm advection/isentropic ascent followed by a period on
Saturday of rain or mixed precipitation as the sfc low tracks
across the forecast area. We could be dry slotted part of Saturday
with snow on the backside transitioning to lake effect snow
showers Saturday evening. Strong cold advection and pressure
gradient could result in blowing snow as temperatures plummet.

Thats the whole write-up on the storm...

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38 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

Well, another lame write-up from GRR. They used to be so detailed but now the majority of the time the write-ups are very short...

 

Not much change to the model guidance on the evolution of the
storm over the weekend. We are thinking a general 3 to 5 inch
event with most of that falling Friday night in a pattern of
strong warm advection/isentropic ascent followed by a period on
Saturday of rain or mixed precipitation as the sfc low tracks
across the forecast area. We could be dry slotted part of Saturday
with snow on the backside transitioning to lake effect snow
showers Saturday evening. Strong cold advection and pressure
gradient could result in blowing snow as temperatures plummet.

Thats the whole write-up on the storm...

I thought the same. My bet is they change their tone a bit with a different forecaster by the mid-morning/afternoon forecast package. 
 

3-5” seems like a lock, but they should definitely stress 6” or more locally is possible IMO, especially since this will be the biggest snowfall since November. 

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There's the case for not flipping over to a mix too early.  But man, how many times have we sat here and watched the waa overperform.  Past experience says to be cautious but hopefully enough precip gets down before the thermal profiles become more hostile. 
We definitely have to hope for earlier saturation to get some bonus snow, should the feared overperforming WAA occur. It's really a razor thin margin. Regardless of every other NAM run struggling with lower level dry air, I'm buying that we'll get into good precip rates, likely snow for at least a couple hours near/just north of 80 and then longer 88 and north.

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Most hi res guidance has that same day air banded look as the NAM, probably safe to assume that happens to some extent over the cwa 

Totals are gonna be kept in check by duration and eventual flip to rain / dry slot as it is, so that well modeled screw zone is gonna leave someone with a particularly lame total.

Call looking $, couple shifts south on the euro would be yikes.gif tho. Still time for seasonal trends to flex and send this as an open wave through the lower oh valley.

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Still time for seasonal trends to flex and send this as an open wave through the lower oh valley.

Definitely not enough time for that to occur.


.
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I think it gets even better for the DTW area with cold air sticking around longer and us getting more snow to ease the pain of last weekends rain mess! 

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Let's go for a 2/14/90 redux. One of the great WAA snow events I can recall. Note; forecasts leading up to it were similar to now....

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9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Definitely not enough time for that to occur.


.

stebo like sarcasm detection abilities

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3 minutes ago, Baum said:

Let's go for a 2/14/90 redux. One of the great WAA snow events I can recall. Note; forecasts leading up to it were similar to now....

I was 6, assuming I got buried tho

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10 minutes ago, Baum said:

Let's go for a 2/14/90 redux. One of the great WAA snow events I can recall. Note; forecasts leading up to it were similar to now....

The low tracked over Carbondale in that event...

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Let's go for a 2/14/90 redux. One of the great WAA snow events I can recall. Note; forecasts leading up to it were similar to now....

How about 2/17/14? Relatively similar setup with air mass not that cold aloft (weather.us reanalysis showed +2C at 850 mb into southern CWA before precip started), broad low pressure west, departing surface high to the east, and southeast surface winds.  

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, mimillman said:

The low tracked over Carbondale in that event...

Perhaps irrelevant. Warm air surge of moisture pushing over a cold dome. Forecast was for a 2-4" with a change to sleet and ice. Began as Heavy snow and lasted from say 2-10 pm. Put 8 " down in that time period. Bigger difference was, if my recollection is correct, cold air had been much more entrenched. And in no way am I saying this is that....just a reminder that sometimes these do overperform...that was an instance

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stebo like sarcasm detection abilities

Knowing you and also with how the season has gone, you never know.

 

 

.

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