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January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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Just now, Jackstraw said:

Yeah forgot how loud thunder is in colder denser air.  No ground strikes but certainly lit up the sky for about 10 minutes.  Was never really in the game for frozen with this one (except 10 days out lol).  Really not looking forward to 48 hours of deluge coming.  Not to "rain" on those to the NW parade but I'm rooting for some big convection down south to put a big dent in the gulf flow.  It takes forever to dry out when we get decent rain in the winter.   

I'm with you there. It might cost someone a few inches of snow, but I don't want to see the 4-6" of rain that some of the models have been puking out. I don't enjoy a quagmire.

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(Couldn’t get into my account till now) 

18 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Seems these setups always surprise one way or the other. So many factors at play, that even a small change has significant sensible weather impacts

 

someone is getting snow that doesn’t expect it, and vise versa 

This completely sums up my thoughts. Although, hate to see us miss 18 inches— have a couple reasons why I think there’s a slim chance eastern Wisconsin will get close. But yeah, someone is getting something they don’t expect. 

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15 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Trend with 0z guidance thus far is to have that front across N/C. IL tomorrow evening/night to end up further N/NW. 

In turn, means less sleet/freezing rain for NE. IL and more rain, due to a later change over.

Paging Alek...

Can we keep ORD below 12.6" total for the season?

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Trend with 0z guidance thus far is to have that front across N/C. IL tomorrow evening/night to end up further N/NW. 

In turn, means less sleet/freezing rain for NE. IL and more rain, due to a later change over.

Paging Alek...

This was unsurprising from the start with the lack of a decent airmass and WAA on steroids 

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From a snow perspective, I just want to see at least a brief period of rippage before the sun sets later Saturday.  Would love a warning criteria snow event, but that isn't in the cards with this 1-2 punch system.  If we can get an inch or two of sleet, and then add an inch or two of snow then that would make it look pretty wintry to be sure.  

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