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Bostonseminole

Jan 4-5 Mixed Bag Discussion Thread

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM looks like ka-ka. It's okay in a 20-30 mile wide stripe from like RUT to dendrite to IZG or so...but overall pretty disjointed...never gets a good CCB cranking. 

Low’s busted open between convection out at sea and the Q-G forcing back west 

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3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

that was based on the NAM?

And ICON.  GFS making moves still but solution seems robust.

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5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

it's good to have it on our side, rather than GFS

Yeah we’ll see... or we’ll get slight shifts toward a gfs like solution and see posts like “euro had it all along” etc etc 

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10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yeah gfs is making small moves but not even close to being enough.   

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5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

it's good to have it on our side, rather than GFS

None of them have a clue 

given Euro’s move from 12z to 18z

we hedge slightly N and maybe a hair weaker at 0z 

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NAM wasn't that bad.. had a pretty large snow shield.

GFS was way north with best stuff north of here.  CAD signature with lower latitude snow in ME.

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So far...

NAM was very disjointed...not much CCB but had a swath of moderate snow for CNE and NNE. 

ICON looked like it trended weaker and south of 18z. Moderate snows for a chunk of SNE 

RGEM clown range jacked SNE with low end warning snows  

GFS trended south from 18z but not a lot. Good looking CCB though for NNE...esp Maine and NH. 

GGEM so far south it whiffs SNE except maybe a little bit in far southern areas. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

So far...

NAM was very disjointed...not much CCB but had a swath of moderate snow for CNE and NNE. 

ICON looked like it trended weaker and south of 18z. Moderate snows for a chunk of SNE 

RGEM clown range jacked SNE with low end warning snows  

GFS trended south from 18z but not a lot. Good looking CCB though for NNE...esp Maine and NH. 

GGEM so far south it whiffs SNE except maybe a little bit in far southern areas. 

So basically.... everything is on the table. Inside day 4... you’d expect some sort of consensus... but not really one here.

Pick your favorite model. Anything from nothing to warming snow 

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So basically.... everything is on the table. Inside day 4... you’d expect some sort of consensus... but not really one here.

Pick your favorite model. Anything from nothing to warming snow 

There’s been zero consensus on every Storm  this season so far Inside day 4.  Not one system it seems has had any consensus at this range this season.  It’s the year of pick which model you like...cuz they all show something totally different at 90 hours.  

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

May be warming snow for southern areas lol

I’m not convinced of anything really. I’ll be honest... I don’t hate the setup for at least something in SNE... especially with the euro pretty steadfast in that.

I guess it comes down to weather it’s a graze with some slop, or more substantial.

You can at least see a path to a solid event here, it’s not totally out of the question 

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So basically.... everything is on the table. Inside day 4... you’d expect some sort of consensus... but not really one here.

Pick your favorite model. Anything from nothing to warming snow 

Save a horse 

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not convinced of anything really. I’ll be honest... I don’t hate the setup for at least something in SNE... especially with the euro pretty steadfast in that.

I guess it comes down to weather it’s a graze with some slop, or more substantial.

You can at least see a path to a solid event here, it’s not totally out of the question 

Well it was only yesterday that if we saw some flakes at the end it was a victory/success.  So I guess if you go back to that idea, then even some slop is good..right.  

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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

So far...

NAM was very disjointed...not much CCB but had a swath of moderate snow for CNE and NNE. 

ICON looked like it trended weaker and south of 18z. Moderate snows for a chunk of SNE 

RGEM clown range jacked SNE with low end warning snows  

GFS trended south from 18z but not a lot. Good looking CCB though for NNE...esp Maine and NH. 

GGEM so far south it whiffs SNE except maybe a little bit in far southern areas. 

can you post the RGEM, i forgot how to do that 84hr trick. thanks

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23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There’s been zero consensus on every Storm  this season so far Inside day 4.  Not one system it seems has had any consensus at this range this season.  It’s the year of pick which model you like...cuz they all show something totally different at 90 hours.  

All that considered, ECMWF is still the king, and id hedge on that more than anything. The biggest mistake i ever made was tossing it out completely on 3/21/18. It was Euro on island vs. everything else.

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Ukie is 993mb off the central New Jersey coast a hour 72 I don't have to thermals but temperatures should be crashing from this point forward

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23 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

All that considered, ECMWF is still the king, and id hedge on that more than anything. The biggest mistake i ever made was tossing it out completely on 3/21/18. It was Euro on island vs. everything else.

Oh I agree for the most part.  But it’s shat on itself just a couple weeks ago, so it’s struggled of late too.  I was speaking of “Consensus” as T Blizz was commenting on..there’s been none this season so far on any system at this relatively closer in time frame, Which is rather weird.  
 

When the Euro is showing something positive for a few runs in a row, at this closer in time frame..I’m certainly liking having IT on our side rather than any of the other models.  If the Ukie is with it, it lends even more positive support.  Let’s hope it doesn’t start wavering the other direction again? 

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