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Bostonseminole

Jan 4-5 Mixed Bag Discussion Thread

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Will be watching over the next 18 to 24 hours as there is an important piece of atmospheric dynamics relaying off the Pacific ocean up there over the mid/lower B.C. coast/western Canada, and sometimes ...though rarely given advancements in data assimilation techniques, those features will come on board and offer/force morphologies down stream, because they are either weaker or stronger than said assimilations -"assimilation" in this context means... in a dearth of physical/emperical measurements, they use a combination of (usually) satellite soundings, and numerical interpolation. Anyway, a stronger s/w injected into the fray in the TV may force a more proficient phase like the Euro - and these interactions are very sensitive to minor fluctuations, too.

The Euro has been more consolidated in the Tennessee Valley area ...demonstrating a more proficient phasing between said follow-up dynamics, and the residual trough that's pushing through that region .. 72 to 84 hours from 00z run.  It's unclear why it did that, where the other model types show more negative interference and less phasing... causing the trough to be less capable of igniting substantive cyclogen in time - like the Euro is.  The UKMET showing up more leaned in that Euro's favor is telling, ..offering perhaps some intuitive notion that the Euro superior assimilation/correction schematics overall may be helpful here.

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EPS keeps tick tick ticking colder each run. Jackman never gets above freezing at 850 mb now, even on the probability maps. Still a decent CAD signal Saturday. Despite the EPS mean being above freezing there are some probabilities for below in there.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that weird offshore bias continues.

It looked a little like 12z GGEM but that was well south.

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Will be watching over the next 18 to 24 hours as there is an important piece of atmospheric dynamics relaying off the Pacific ocean up there over the mid/lower B.C. coast/western Canada, and sometimes ...though rarely given advancements in data assimilation techniques, those features will come on board and offer/force morphologies down stream, because they are either weaker or stronger than said assimilations -"assimilation" in this context means... in a dearth of physical/emperical measurements, they use a combination of (usually) satellite soundings, and numerical interpolation. Anyway, a stronger s/w injected into the fray in the TV may force a more proficient phase like the Euro - and these interactions are very sensitive to minor fluctuations, too.

The Euro has been more consolidated in the Tennessee Valley area ...demonstrating a more proficient phasing between said follow-up dynamics, and the residual trough that's pushing through that region .. 72 to 84 hours from 00z run.  It's unclear why it did that, where the other model types show more negative interference and less phasing... causing the trough to be less capable of igniting substantive cyclogen in time - like the Euro is.  The UKMET showing up more leaned in that Euro's favor is telling, ..offering perhaps some intuitive notion that the Euro superior assimilation/correction schematics overall may be helpful here.

Could have more of an impact once its sampled one way or the other.

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Could have more of an impact once its sampled one way or the other.

Ensemble sensitivity was focused around that piece from the Pacific too.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Ensemble sensitivity was focused around that piece from the Pacific too.

When does it get into Raobs?

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Half messing , but we may find you at the Tobin after this one.

Meh, if I get 1-2 I'm fine. Just make it pasty white.

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Just now, weathafella said:

That actually looks ok for a lot of SNE as well.

Yes it does as heights crash to the coast as the low bombs.

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There is definitely a battle between an initial s/w that the GFS and NAM have in Ohio that drive the low into NY and redevelop over SNE..vs Euro and other guidance. If the euro tries to compromise it's definitely a more congrats PF and CYUL. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro looks nice. Good hit nrn CT to CNE/NNE.

Let's do it. I'll shovel one more time before I'm shoveling ice into my boat drinks.

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

70/30 compromise and congrats CNE

Yeah you favor them for now, but some snow certainly possible to the south. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is definitely a battle between an initial s/w that the GFS and NAM have in Ohio that drive the low into NY and redevelop over SNE..vs Euro and other guidance. If the euro tries to compromise it's definitely a more congrats PF and CYUL. 

Right now, the euro arguably is the compromise between cmc and gfs.

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