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Rtd208

January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Too early to say it looks like an all out snowstorm. GFS is a nice snowstorm, but other models aren't as impressive and show just a light snow accumulation getting washed away by rain. 12z EURO is just a 1 to 2 inch snowfall for NYC and nearby areas, and then rain. You have to go well to the NW to get a 3 to 5 inch snowfall according to today's EURO. But we have a long way to go, so hopefully it'll improve. It's very likely going to change to rain, but strength and position of the high to the north will determine whether it's a light accumulation washed away by plenty of rain or a more significant accumulation that won't be totally washed away by some rain towards the end.

Still the biggest snowfall of the season snowstorm followed by heavy rain is coming

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The 68 so far at ISP is only one off the January all-time high of 69 degrees.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2002 69 0
2 2007 68 0
3 1995 67 0
4 1974 66 0
- 1967 66 0
5 2008 64 0
- 1998 64 0
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29 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps  is insane in the mid to long range

 

Negative epo with a big ridge in the west 

Also keeps the 850's for this weekends storm cold enough

850t.conus.png850t.conus.png

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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 68 so far at ISP is only one off the January all-time high of 69 degrees.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2002 69 0
2 2007 68 0
3 1995 67 0
4 1974 66 0
- 1967 66 0
5 2008 64 0
- 1998 64 0

2002 eh? Yikes...lets hope that one stands

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Topped out at 68, down to 64 right now. If the skies earlier were as clear as they are now we likely would’ve hit at least 70.

I’m officially in spring-mode. I bought and used an entire bag of potting soil yesterday.

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Upton is not buying snow for Saturday, no CAD evident, new disco: 


Temperatures will be remaining above normal through Thursday, then
return to more normal levels Thursday night into Sunday as Arctic
high pressure builds toward the region.

Any precipitation with the waves will be mainly in the form of rain.
For the system next weekend there is some uncertainty as to how long
a period of light snow will occur before a transition to all rain
Saturday afternoon. This will be dependent on how quickly the cold
air is scoured out as high pressure moves east. At this time there
is no cold air damming evident and the flow does remain progressive.
Also there is uncertainty with temperature profiles with the ECMWF
warmer than the GFS. With these uncertainties will keep the
probabilities at chance.

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Eps  is insane in the mid to long range

 

Negative epo with a big ridge in the west 

Eps, GEFS, GEPS all have that ridge out west and a trough in the northeast. Amazing times coming this should produce haven’t seen the models this good all year!

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6 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Eps, GEFS, GEPS all have that ridge out west and a trough in the northeast. Amazing times coming this should produce haven’t seen the models this good all year!

Relax. 

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The New York City area experienced a second day of record warmth. During the afternoon, the temperature rose to 68 in New York City. Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden this afternoon:

NYBG01122020-5.jpg

NYBG01122020-7.jpg

NYBG01122020-3.jpg

NYBG01122020-8.jpg

NYBG01122020-9.jpg

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The New York City area experienced a second day of record warmth. During the afternoon, the temperature rose to 68 in New York City. Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden this afternoon:

NYBG01122020-5.jpg

NYBG01122020-7.jpg

NYBG01122020-3.jpg

NYBG01122020-8.jpg

NYBG01122020-9.jpg

Excellent photos Don. Did you use a phone for these? It's amazing how clear photos are today. Back in the day I had to wrestle with 35mm and take rolls of film to get maybe one good shot of a guy holding a fish....did a few covers for The Fisherman. Never was much of a photographer. Or anything else, really....

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Excellent photos Don. Did you use a phone for these? It's amazing how clear photos are today. Back in the day I had to wrestle with 35mm and take rolls of film to get maybe one good shot of a guy holding a fish....did a few covers for The Fisherman. Never was much of a photographer. Or anything else, really....

No. I used a camera. Phones have improved greatly, though.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Upton is not buying snow for Saturday, no CAD evident, new disco: 

Temperatures will be remaining above normal through Thursday, then
return to more normal levels Thursday night into Sunday as Arctic
high pressure builds toward the region.

Any precipitation with the waves will be mainly in the form of rain.
For the system next weekend there is some uncertainty as to how long
a period of light snow will occur before a transition to all rain
Saturday afternoon. This will be dependent on how quickly the cold
air is scoured out as high pressure moves east. At this time there
is no cold air damming evident and the flow does remain progressive.
Also there is uncertainty with temperature profiles with the ECMWF
warmer than the GFS. With these uncertainties will keep the
probabilities at chance.

Not everybody on this board lives in NYC and Long Island. NWS Albany discussion below:

By Saturday morning, the high sets up in a prime position across
Quebec. An upper-level trough and surface low forms across the
Plains and heads eastward. The current track of the surface low is
across the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday before the energy transfers
to a coastal low late Saturday into Sunday. Cold and very dry air
ahead of this system raises confidence that wet-bulb effects would
lead to a nearly all snow event. It is possible that warm air aloft
brings a brief transition to sleet/freezing rain and/or rain from
near the Capital Region south; however, confidence on this is low.
While this is several days out, good ensemble agreement led to
raising the PoPs to likely. A plowable snow is possible.
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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Wonder what’s causing the EPS to back off the -EPO vs the GEFS and CMC?

9072FCBA-10BF-44FA-B88A-DDAB3F93BDE9.thumb.jpeg.266c99ab1bcae31270a53c7ecf00f388.jpeg

 

I've noticed that too, could it be tied to the MJO progression? 

Models really backed off on the strong cold too. Perhaps more signs that winter is in no hurry to come back.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

New all-time January record highs in Boston and Providence.

 

Bridgeport also had a January record 69 degrees. In fact, prior to today, the earliest Bridgeport had reached 69 degrees was March 8, 1987.

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I've noticed that too, could it be tied to the MJO progression? 

Models really backed off on the strong cold too. Perhaps more signs that winter is in no hurry to come back.

What?

Eps and gefs say get ready for winter starting next week.

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Uptown Afd is a perfect example of professionals not utilizing synoptic experience and common sense. Friday evening is text book quick hitting 2-5 type event, no questions asked. 

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48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The New York City area experienced a second day of record warmth. During the afternoon, the temperature rose to 68 in New York City. Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden this afternoon:

NYBG01122020-5.jpg

NYBG01122020-7.jpg

NYBG01122020-3.jpg

NYBG01122020-8.jpg

NYBG01122020-9.jpg

lol at cherry blossoms? I know there are a few varieties that can have a 2nd bloom in fall if the conditions are right, but Jan? I'd think the sun isnt strong enough yet regardless of temp.

hit 69, went on a bike ride, felt great albeit it windy at times. Sat under a southern magnolia tree and for a sec felt like I was in South Carolina lol

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49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Wonder what’s causing the EPS to back off the -EPO vs the GEFS and CMC?

9072FCBA-10BF-44FA-B88A-DDAB3F93BDE9.thumb.jpeg.266c99ab1bcae31270a53c7ecf00f388.jpeg

 

Think this makes more sense now with the MJO lag (the 26th)

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40 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I've noticed that too, could it be tied to the MJO progression? 

Models really backed off on the strong cold too. Perhaps more signs that winter is in no hurry to come back.

Well we don’t want it too cold to suppress our storms now do we?!

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