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Rtd208

January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

KU/benchmark tracks don’t grow on trees. We have been extremely lucky since 2009. Many on the coast have become spoiled With the amount of snow that have had. It’s no shock that we have regressed to the mean. The last area wide snowstorm was definitely 2016. We are obviously over due now. 

early Jan 2018 storm was widespread I believe-that came at the end of a bitter cold 10 day outbreak-was all snow I think

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13 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Just a little shift. Classic NAM. 

snku_acc.us_mw.pngsnku_acc.us_mw.png

It’s been a rough winter for the models. The euro and nam seem to be too amped in the short range. 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

early Jan 2018 storm was widespread I believe-that came at the end of a bitter cold 10 day outbreak-was all snow I think

Yes, but I believe that was a bit east of the classic benchmark track. Our last east coast blizzard from DCA to Bos was back in 2016. 

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The departures are gonna be ridiculous by 1/20.

Insane warmth coming up and yet somehow I feel more confident there'll be a big flip soon.

Euro still not as cold in the LR as GFS is though...makes sense given its MJO wave progression.

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22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s been a rough winter for the models. The euro and nam seem to be too amped in the short range. 

That could be a cool Seahawks vs Packers game.

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GFS is now averaging 25degs., or 7degs. BN for the period (17th---26th, with 5" of snow).      Still it is having phasing problems, as precipitation events are accompanied by a rise in the T.     Maybe it will not matter at mid-winter.       At any rate the MTD would then be +2.2 by the 27th.     This is because today and the next 6 warm days are exactly erased by the above -7 for 10 days.        A chameleon month in the making?

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59 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

early Jan 2018 storm was widespread I believe-that came at the end of a bitter cold 10 day outbreak-was all snow I think

Widespread, but paltry for a lot of us in this subforum....

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5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Widespread, but paltry for a lot of us in this subforum....

Yep-favored the coast for sure-had about 15-16 inches here in CT.

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

KU/benchmark tracks don’t grow on trees. We have been extremely lucky since 2009. Many on the coast have become spoiled With the amount of snow that have had. It’s no shock that we have regressed to the mean. The last area wide snowstorm was definitely 2016. We are obviously over due now. 

It’s very difficult to predict how long the lull periods between active benchmark tracks will last. We had the record breaking 95-96 season followed by the 96-97 to 01-02 lull. The only decent snowfall season in that 6 year run was 00-01. Things really picked up in 02-03 and were great until 05-06. We saw another downturn from 06-07 to 07-08. Some slight improvement for 08-09 before the big ramp up lasting until 10-11. Then another big step down in 11-12 before another uptick in February 2013. Nemo in February 2013 opened up our greatest 6 year benchmark track run through March 2018. Since last year, we have been in a consistent cutter or hugger storm track regime. There were also a few disappointing southern stream suppressed storms like in early December 2018. So the big question is when the rapidly deepening benchmark storm track will make a return.

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36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep-favored the coast for sure-had about 15-16 inches here in CT.

I'm coastal plain, but near Raritan Bay. Don't get the same as the coast or interior. So a little too far west for that one.

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s very difficult to predict how long the lull periods between active benchmark tracks will last. We had the record breaking 95-96 season followed by the 96-97 to 01-02 lull. The only decent snowfall season in that 6 year run was 00-01. Things really picked up in 02-03 and were great until 05-06. We saw another downturn from 06-07 to 07-08. Some slight improvement for 08-09 before the big ramp up lasting until 10-11. Then another big step down in 11-12 before another uptick in February 2013. Nemo in February 2013 opened up our greatest 6 year benchmark track run through March 2018. Since last year, we have been in a consistent cutter or hugger storm track regime. There were also a few disappointing southern stream suppressed storms like in early December 2018. So the big question is when the rapidly deepening benchmark storm track will make a big return.

Depends on your location. Few of the storms outside of Jan 2016 were much to talk about in my region, relative to others. Only the last March 2018 storm delivered ( about 9 inches give or take ) and we did have the Easter Monday snow of 3-5 as a consolation prize, but other than that it has been near misses, subsidence, mixing issues, dry air, you name it.

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Depends on your location. Few of the storms outside of Jan 2016 were much to talk about in my region, relative to others. Only the last March storm delivered ( about 9 inches give or take ) and we did have the Easter Monday snow of 3-5 as a consolation prize, but other than that it has been near misses, subsidence, mixing issues, dry air, you name it.

With the exception of January 2018 every storm of any significance in NYC since 2017 has featured either a torched BL or severe mixing issues.

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5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Depends on your location. Few of the storms outside of Jan 2016 were much to talk about in my region, relative to others. Only the last March storm delivered ( about 9 inches give or take ) and we did have the Easter Monday snow of 3-5 as a consolation prize, but other than that it has been near misses, subsidence, mixing issues, dry air, you name it.

The historic snowfall run from 12-13 to 17-18 was epic on Long Island. My guess is that these amounts for a 6 year period may have been a 100 to 200 year event under older climatology. But who knows what the return period will be for this to occur again under our new more extreme climate.

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9
2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7
2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4
2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3
2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9
2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8
2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 0.4 M M M 4.7

 

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23 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Depends on your location. Few of the storms outside of Jan 2016 were much to talk about in my region, relative to others. Only the last March 2018 storm delivered ( about 9 inches give or take ) and we did have the Easter Monday snow of 3-5 as a consolation prize, but other than that it has been near misses, subsidence, mixing issues, dry air, you name it.

Winners and losers in every storm. We haven’t had it bad in middlesex county since 2009. I’ll gladly take 4-8 over getting skunked completely 

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So what is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts?

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47 minutes ago, larrye said:

So what is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts?

Pattern change as MJO exits the warmer phases 4/5 -definetly cooler temps after that --wide open for continued debate exactly what comes next - no snowstorms in sight...…….

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50 minutes ago, larrye said:

So what is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts?

The pattern gets better after the 20th. We have a chance at a snow to rain type event next weekend. After that it looks stormy with cold around. But yes, if you’re looking for a classic snowstorm it will be after the 20th. Incredible agreement right now with all the ensembles on a +pna and -epo look. 

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5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The pattern gets better after the 20th. We have a chance at a snow to rain type event next weekend. After that it looks stormy with cold around. But yes, if you’re looking for a classic snowstorm it will be after the 20th. Incredible agreement right now with all the ensembles on with +pna and -epo look. 

NAO remaining positive possibly - AO could also stay positive - still plenty of mixed signals - proceed with caution IMO especially  if you expect snowstorms

nao.sprd2.gifao.sprd2.gif

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

NAO remaining positive possibly - AO could also stay positive

nao.sprd2.gifao.sprd2.gif

The pattern change is all a result from the mjo. We won’t see help from the nao probably not until February if at all. The Ao will be around neutral at the end of the month. This is all from the +pna and -epo 

 

The eps had some transient blocking at the end of the month. 

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Earlier today, Lexington and Louisville both set daily record high temperatures of 67° today. That warmth is coming northward and a very warm weekend lies ahead. Temperatures will likely peak in the 60s as far north as southern New England.

At the same time, a storm will be bringing exceptionally heavy precipitation to the Great Lakes Region. Heavy snow is possible in Milwaukee. Very heavy rain will likely impact Chicago and Detroit. In fact, there is a chance that tomorrow's daily rainfall in Detroit could be the heaviest on record for January. The January record precipitation for Detroit is 1.76", which was set on January 12, 1908.

This outcome is consistent with a very high amplitude MJO passage through the Maritime Continent phases. Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO moved through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above accompanied by a positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), as is the case this January. The mean highest temperature during the MJO's passage through the Maritime Continent for New York City for those cases was 62.5°. Three of the four cases had peak temperatures of 60° or above. 2007 was the warmest with a high temperature of 72°.

Tomorrow could see some locations approach or reach record high temperatures. Daily records for January 11 are:

Atlantic City: 62°, 2018
Bridgeport: 56°, 1975
Hartford: 60°, 1983
Islip: 60°, 1975
New York City: 63°, 1975
Newark: 66°, 1975
Poughkeepsie: 63°, 1975
White Plains: 57°, 1975

Sunday will likely see widespread near record to record warmth. Daily records for January 12 are:

Atlantic City: 67°, 2017
Bridgeport: 55°, 2017 and 2018
Hartford: 60°, 2018
Islip: 58°, 1995 and 2017
New York City: 66°, 2017
Newark: 67°, 2017
Poughkeepsie: 62°, 2018
White Plains: 63°, 2017

Sunday will mark the climax of January's warmth. Generally warmer than normal conditions will likely persist through mid-month, but the readings will be cooler than those of this weekend. There are growing indications of a pattern change beyond the medium-term.

Near January 20 +/- a few days, somewhat colder air could return for a period. The closing week of the month could see a sustained colder pattern develop, possibly with a shot of Arctic air.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around January 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was +13.57 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.516.

The AO will likely average +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 18. Following some warming, the upper stratosphere will cool late in the period. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed just past mid-January. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. 

On January 9, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 3.026 (RMM). The January 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.617.

Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February.

Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were January three cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall.

In addition, an MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above typically sees measurable snowfall consistent with overall January 16-31 climatology. That would imply approximately 2 measurable snow events for Philadelphia to New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston during the closing two weeks of January.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 84% probability of a warmer than normal January.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Winners and losers in every storm. We haven’t had it bad in middlesex county since 2009. I’ll gladly take 4-8 over getting skunked completely 

No, but we have not been the locus of any but Boxing Day and Jan 2016; and western parts of the county may not have done was well Boxing Day, not sure. Although they still had a lot. I always remind myself that most people think of a "bad" winter as one that features any amount of snow and ice, people around these parts complain about the winters incessantly.

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22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The pattern change is all a result from the mjo. We won’t see help from the nao probably not until February if at all. The Ao will be around neutral at the end of the month. This is all from the +pna and -epo 

 

The eps had some transient blocking at the end of the month. 

So we'd be looking at fast moving systems, no huge events, if they happen, no? That's fine, my favorite recent winter was 2014, not a blockbuster among them, just solid 6-10 in. storms.

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40 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The pattern change is all a result from the mjo. We won’t see help from the nao probably not until February if at all. The Ao will be around neutral at the end of the month. This is all from the +pna and -epo 

 

The eps had some transient blocking at the end of the month. 

Eps looks great for a pattern change. Gefs also.

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15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps looks great for a pattern change. Gefs also.

Anything on the 18z euro for the 18th/19th?

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51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Earlier today, Lexington and Louisville both set daily record high temperatures of 67° today. That warmth is coming northward and a very warm weekend lies ahead. Temperatures will likely peak in the 60s as far north as southern New England.

At the same time, a storm will be bringing exceptionally heavy precipitation to the Great Lakes Region. Heavy snow is possible in Milwaukee. Very heavy rain will likely impact Chicago and Detroit. In fact, there is a chance that tomorrow's daily rainfall in Detroit could be the heaviest on record for January. The January record precipitation for Detroit is 1.76", which was set on January 12, 1908.

Hi Don. I pop in from.time to time to read your thoughts! Unless the models fail, tomorrow will be the wettest January day on record for Detroit, after November 11 was our snowiest November day on record. Very impressive to set 2 such records the same season. Records to 1874.

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9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Hi Don. I pop in from.time to time to read your thoughts! Unless the models fail, tomorrow will be the wettest January day on record for Detroit, after November 11 was our snowiest November day on record. Very impressive to set 2 such records the same season. Records to 1874.

It is. That Detroit has such a long climate record makes it extremely impressive.

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5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yes, but I believe that was a bit east of the classic benchmark track. Our last east coast blizzard from DCA to Bos was back in 2016. 

If you’re  talking about January 23rd blizzard, Boston really didn’t get that much from that

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