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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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16 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Looks like the euro bias of holding back the energy in the SW is in play here. Shocker that euro is on an island again. Brutal year for the euro. 

The modeling today actually looks surprisingly similar IMO.  Dual shortwaves drop into WA state and Montana next Tues.  The WA state wave  pinches off / closes off over the Great Basin and the Montana wave works toward NE Colorado.  The UKMet keeps the two waves together, with a stout wave closing off over Utah.  

The UKMet and CMC are the most aggressive with getting the subtropical jet stream moisture involved (streaming northeast out of Baja), with the GFS next in line. 

The Euro and ICON are the least aggressive with getting the Montana wave to dig far enough to the southwest to ignite precip from Texas to the Carolinas.

All things considered, I thought the 12z suite was a step in the right direction.  We haven't lost our cold high dropping down, and the path to victory with the southern slider overrunning precip is more than just a pipe dream.

Here's the aggressive look with Baja moisture streaming in on the UKMet...

YyNxbkZ.gif

jpI4pp2.png

 

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

The modeling today actually looks surprisingly similar IMO.  Dual shortwaves drop into WA state and Montana next Tues.  The WA state wave  pinches off / closes off over the Great Basin and the Montana wave works toward NE Colorado.  The UKMet keeps the two waves together, with a stout wave closing off over Utah.  

The UKMet and CMC are the most aggressive with getting the subtropical jet stream moisture involved (streaming northeast out of Baja), with the GFS next in line. 

The Euro and ICON are the least aggressive with getting the Montana wave to dig far enough to the southwest to ignite precip from Texas to the Carolinas.

All things considered, I thought the 12z suite was a step in the right direction.  We haven't lost our cold high dropping down, and the path to victory with the southern slider overrunning precip is more than just a pipe dream.

Here's the aggressive look with Baja moisture streaming in on the UKMet...

YyNxbkZ.gif

jpI4pp2.png

 

Thanks Grit, you've got a real great way of not only understanding the model variables, but communicating them in a clear way.  I always appreciate it!

Assuming we do get some moisture tap for the overrunning, the surface temps along all modeling seems to be very marginal, mid to upper 30s.  Is there a likelihood to get those temps colder? It doesn't look like CAD is involved with this so I'm not sure what I'm rooting for to see that.  High further east? stronger? That variable seems to have remained pretty much the same so far. 

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As the models turn really gets the cliff divers shouting their I’m gonna jump chants :lol:  This is far from being dropped, and I kinda prefer the suppression this far out in a progressive pattern. Relax and enjoy the fact all the players are on the field and we’re not currently punting  :hug: 

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9 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Thanks Grit, you've got a real great way of not only understanding the model variables, but communicating them in a clear way.  I always appreciate it!

Assuming we do get some moisture tap for the overrunning, the surface temps along all modeling seems to be very marginal, mid to upper 30s.  Is there a likelihood to get those temps colder? It doesn't look like CAD is involved with this so I'm not sure what I'm rooting for to see that.  High further east? stronger? That variable seems to have remained pretty much the same so far. 

Surface temps are a non-issue with this storm for most folks, as modeled.

  Let me explain:

If per say, the models were showing a profile with -4c 850mb temps, 0c 925mb temps, 1c 950mb temps and 3c surface temps. We would be in trouble in that scenario as we would be dealing with lots of white rain and a thick boundary layer that wouldn't want to give up the fight.

That is not what any of the models are showing for this storm. There are (on average for mby) showing -4c 850mb temps, -2c 925mb temps, -.5c 950mb temps, and 3c surface temps.  As a result, the above freezing layer is only a few hundred feet deep at most on the globals, and any decent precip rates in that profile will quickly get the surface to 32/33.  The globals never pick up on this, especially at this range. So it's no surprise they are showing 6 straight hours of 37 degree rain/snow. In reality,(if their thermal profiles are right). that would mostly be 32/33 snow for everyone fortunate enough to get good rates, assuming your location has the good thermal profile I described above.

 

 

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Here is the 7am Thursday sounding for mby off the 12z GFS. That sounding has the freezing layer just 600 feet off the ground.  If that sounding is correct, I have no doubt that I would be seeing accumulating snow with surface temps around freezing. 

Screen Shot 2020-02-14 at 3.27.15 PM.png

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8 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Surface temps are a non-issue with this storm for most folks, as modeled.

  Let me explain:

If per say, the models were showing a profile with -4c 850mb temps, 0c 925mb temps, 1c 950mb temps and 3c surface temps. We would be in trouble in that scenario as we would be dealing with lots of white rain and a thick boundary layer that wouldn't want to give up the fight.

That is not what any of the models are showing for this storm. There are (on average for mby) showing -4c 850mb temps, -2c 925mb temps, -.5c 950mb temps, and 3c surface temps.  As a result, the above freezing layer is only a few hundred feet deep at most on the globals, and any decent precip rates in that profile will quickly get the surface to 32/33.  The globals never pick up on this, especially at this range. So it's no surprise they are showing 6 straight hours of 37 degree rain/snow. In reality,(if their thermal profiles are right). that would mostly be 32/33 snow for everyone fortunate enough to get good rates, assuming your location has the good thermal profile I described above.

 

 

Thanks Burrell. I'd agree the boundary layer temps look good/decent at the moment.  However depending on getting the temp down with rates is problematic when you're not dealing with a strong system.  It looks like currently we're struggling to get a good amount of precip in, assuming say we take the average between the EURO/UKMET (strange their on the opposite sides of the spectrum huh?).  With a lack of rates, we're not that cold like you say because we don't have good rates.  I'm probably getting too far in the weeds this far out, but surface temps are a pet peeve of mine.  If we're dealing especially with limited moisture or a light event, I'd of course much rather have cold surface to aid in accumulation.  At this point though in this winter, I'll be happy with seeing some flakes fly. 

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Surface temps are a non-issue with this storm for most folks, as modeled.
  Let me explain:
If per say, the models were showing a profile with -4c 850mb temps, 0c 925mb temps, 1c 950mb temps and 3c surface temps. We would be in trouble in that scenario as we would be dealing with lots of white rain and a thick boundary layer that wouldn't want to give up the fight.
That is not what any of the models are showing for this storm. There are (on average for mby) showing -4c 850mb temps, -2c 925mb temps, -.5c 950mb temps, and 3c surface temps.  As a result, the above freezing layer is only a few hundred feet deep at most on the globals, and any decent precip rates in that profile will quickly get the surface to 32/33.  The globals never pick up on this, especially at this range. So it's no surprise they are showing 6 straight hours of 37 degree rain/snow. In reality,(if their thermal profiles are right). that would mostly be 32/33 snow for everyone fortunate enough to get good rates, assuming your location has the good thermal profile I described above.
 
 

While you are correct for the heavy precip core, I want to emphasize that *people on the fringes* of events like this still will have to worry about BL issues. In a hypothetical where the I-40 corridor gets an E-W spanning streak of the heaviest rates, places N of that (South Hill, Danville etc in this scenario) would still deal with mixing.
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2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:


While you are correct for the heavy precip core, I want to emphasize that *people on the fringes* of events like this still will have to worry about BL issues. In a hypothetical where the I-40 corridor gets an E-W spanning streak of the heaviest rates, places N of that (South Hill, Danville etc in this scenario) would still deal with mixing.

Exactly.  If you're stuck with lighter precip, you've well, wet ground from some snow showers.  This system/set up reminds me of the temps and precip of this last weekend IMBY. Mid to upper 30s, had decent snow showers but it was light and didn't amount to anything.  I could foresee the same for clt. 

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14 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Thanks Burrell. I'd agree the boundary layer temps look good/decent at the moment.  However depending on getting the temp down with rates is problematic when you're not dealing with a strong system.  It looks like currently we're struggling to get a good amount of precip in, assuming say we take the average between the EURO/UKMET (strange their on the opposite sides of the spectrum huh?).  With a lack of rates, we're not that cold like you say.  I'm probably getting too far in the weeds this far out, but surface temps are a pet peeve of mine.  If we're dealing especially with limited moisture, I'd of course much rather have cold surface.  At this point though in this winter, I'll be happy with seeing some flakes fly. 

Just for reference. The snow storm from last week was modeled to be 36-40 degrees by all the global models the night before the event for my backyard. That storm had a similar thermal profile to the one being shown.  As it turns out I got down to 31.5 degrees and got over 3.25 inches of snow from just .35 inches of liquid. And the snow started sticking within a few minutes of falling.  

Now, if we only manage 1/10th of liquid with this storm then that might be problematic for accumulation(due to the boundary layer/mixing). But i mean you're only getting 1 inch even if every flake sticks anyways in that scenario.  I guess my point is you don't need inch+ precip totals to overcome a very a shallow boundary layer. As long as we get 1/4 to 1/2 inch of liquid we should get a nice accumulating snow from this system,(if the thermal profiles are modeled correctly).

If you're below .25 liquid totals for this storm, then yes, you probably won't get much accumulation outside the mountains.

 

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1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

If this was an actual surface based LP storm in the gulf then I'd say suppression is a good thing because that's when we get our NW trends. But this is really just a thermal gradient pattern relying on SW flow to deliver moisture. Differences in the handling of the vort are what's causing the suppressed look. 

Exactly. but he wont understand he has little meteorological understanding. 

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Where did THIS come from? (I know it's not mid-long range, but it's not an observation yet, either :P)

Tonight
A chance of flurries between 11pm and 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 27. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

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28 minutes ago, Solak said:

Where did THIS come from? (I know it's not mid-long range, but it's not an observation yet, either :P)

Tonight
A chance of flurries between 11pm and 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 27. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

START A THREAD! lol some short range models have an area of precip coming in from the NE, oddly, after midnight tonight

flurries.png

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RAH discussion this afternoon concerning next week:

The aforementioned cold front/frontal zone is expected to settle to
the south of the area on Wednesday into Thursday as cold high
pressure builds into the area. The will allow for high temps to be
in the 40s late week, with low temps possibly in the 20s by Friday
morning. With regard to chances for precip, additional s/w energy is
expected to dive south/southeastward out of the upper Midwest and
potentially drawing the stalled front to the south back northward
and allowing for chances for precip Wednesday into Thursday, with
dry weather expected again by Friday. The latest ECMWF keeps central
NC dry (with any precip to the south), while the GFS spreads precip
into our area. If precip does spread back into our area, we could
see a threat for some wintry precip, with possibly even some snow
across our area (even southern locations). Thus, there remains a lot
of uncertainty in this portion of the forecast, but will keep the
precip all liquid in the forecast for now and lower temps some. Stay
tuned.

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1 hour ago, SnowNiner said:

Thanks Grit, you've got a real great way of not only understanding the model variables, but communicating them in a clear way.  I always appreciate it!

Assuming we do get some moisture tap for the overrunning, the surface temps along all modeling seems to be very marginal, mid to upper 30s.  Is there a likelihood to get those temps colder? It doesn't look like CAD is involved with this so I'm not sure what I'm rooting for to see that.  High further east? stronger? That variable seems to have remained pretty much the same so far. 

Appreciate that Niner.  A few things to supplement the other comments on this topic:

1. Although our winter has been warm, it's been cold in Canada, and the surface high drops out of the Yukon Territories, an ideal source region for cold.

2. As currently modeled, the surface high is big and sprawling, with northeast winds at the surface.  It's a good setup for getting a good supply of cold into our region.  

3. Having the soundings show a shallow warm layer at the surface is much better than dealing with a warm layer moving in aloft (warm nose).

4. Assuming a cold front passage Tues night, the timing window for wintry precip would be Wed night to Friday night...gotta have the precip in that window. 

mtFlskU.png

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13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

CJ still on the hype train for Thursday on TV! Says upstate has a better chance at frozen precip than the mountains!:maprain::weenie:

I think it's pretty obvious that surrounding Mets are really roasting that guy regularly.  And rightfully so.  Especially today.

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6 minutes ago, griteater said:

Appreciate that Niner.  A few things to supplement the other comments on this topic:

1. Although our winter has been warm, it's been cold in Canada, and the surface high drops out of the Yukon Territories, an ideal source region for cold.

2. As currently modeled, the surface high is big and sprawling, with northeast winds at the surface.  It's a good setup for getting a good supply of cold into our region.  

3. Having the soundings show a shallow warm layer at the surface is much better than dealing with a warm layer moving in aloft (warm nose).

4. Assuming a cold front passage Tues night, the timing window for wintry precip would be Wed night to Friday night...gotta have the precip in that window. 

mtFlskU.png

That is a big, glorious HP. I forgot what they look like

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5 minutes ago, gearhead302 said:

I think it's pretty obvious that surrounding Mets are really roasting that guy regularly.  And rightfully so.  Especially today.

He was all over the tornado out break the other week and he was right on the snow the other day. FoxCarolina called a trace to a dusting until a 1” was already on the ground. He has busted before and people lost their minds but overall he’s pretty accurate. 

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CJ still on the hype train for Thursday on TV! Says upstate has a better chance at frozen precip than the mountains!default_maprain.gifdefault_hotdog.gif

So we gripe when mets dont respect the chance of snow while we clown the most who says it can snow.....while we chase 20 maps here hoping its gonna snow

 

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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