Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
 Share

Recommended Posts

29 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

18Z Euro is back to the party. The way every system has over performed here this year I don’t see any reason why this one would be any different. 

Come on.....you can do better than this. This "back to the party" doesn't explain anything about what you are looking at.Is Dr No drinking the hard stuff? 

27 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

yes 18z was better. will be interesting to see the 0z

Explain better. You can do better than this. 

More moisture north, colder temps with precip falling. More interaction after the sw drops into the US further west that the previous run. Adding just a little substance explains a lot and it's why this is called the discussion thread. 

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 4
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Come on.....you can do better than this. This "back to the party" doesn't explain anything about what you are looking at.Is Dr No drinking the hard stuff? 

Explain better. You can do better than this. 

More moisture north, colder temps with precip falling. More interaction after the sw drops into the US further west that the previous run. Adding just a little substance explains a lot and it's why this is called the discussion thread. 

 

More validation in the form of continuity.  A positive TREND

Constructively,  can you lose the big pic in your signature by any chance?  It really hassles with the thread view?  

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

The QPF and snow total noticeably ticked up on the ensemble mean also. 

 

5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I don't have access to EURO but based on GFS, temperatures look like a big factor, particularly surface temperatures based on soundings I looked at on GFS and model output.  In addition, NWS RAH is forecasting a high of 46 on Thursday and 42 on Friday.  

That was probably a forecast without precip. More or any precip= colder temps

I must say, I don’t like the orientation of the high on the Euro, and no wedging!?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With regard to precip, as others have alluded to, we need the northern stream shortwave to drop down farther to the west.  We need it to drop from Montana down thru the spine of the Rockies as opposed to dropping down east of the Rockies.  This improves the flow over the southeast for moisture return...specifically, it opens the door for more interaction with subtle subtropical waves that can inject moisture from Baja>Texas>Carolinas and VA.  Here's the shift west with the wave shown in this loop of the last 2 runs of the Euro Control.

vMqDonp.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With regard to precip, as others have alluded to, we need the northern stream shortwave to drop down farther to the west.  We need it to drop from Montana down thru the spine of the Rockies as opposed to dropping down east of the Rockies.  This improves the flow over the southeast for moisture return...specifically, it opens the door for more interaction with subtle subtropical waves that can inject moisture from Baja>Texas>Carolinas and VA.  Here's the shift west with the wave shown in this loop of the last 2 runs of the Euro Control.
vMqDonp.gif&key=df1b623c4afdbad3ea8bee0bee8419b6f1111604d19bf2abb4f5a39e5259e47a

Pretty much this. With a 1040 parent high I think this is the pre-eminent feature to pay attention to in model runs going forward. I don’t think temps will be *that* much of an issue but I’m also ready to eat crow on that statement given this is still below the mason Dixon line.


.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

"And warmer"

Everybody better hop in the "rates will overcome" boat, because that is going to be a big issue unless the system slows by 24 hours to allow colder air to sink in.

 

53 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That was probably a forecast without precip. More or any precip= colder temps

I must say, I don’t like the orientation of the high on the Euro, and no wedging!?

 

6 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Pretty much this. With a 1040 parent high I think this is the pre-eminent feature to pay attention to in model runs going forward. I don’t think temps will be *that* much of an issue but I’m also ready to eat crow on that statement given this is still below the mason Dixon line.

 

I'm torn on temperatures for the folks in South Carolina and southern North Carolina.  While we don't have classic cold air damming, the surface high is a monster with northeast winds at the surface as the potential precip approaches, originating from a source region that is very cold (-12 to -28 C at 850mb).  It's an excellent setup.  Problem is, the 588 height line is in central Florida with 591 in the western Caribbean (strong subtropical ridge).  Also, the cold air doesn't move in boldly behind the early week cold front like it did behind the pre-storm cold front for the recent snow in GA/SC.  Having said all of that, I suspect that when the NAM comes into range, it will be a bit colder than the globals, with a better ability to resolve the low level arctic sourced air.

MOJ0LJm.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

ECMWF is running. Anyone have an updated on it? Was it similar to 18z?

It's much improved over the 12z run but ultimately still suppressed for the most part. It looks very similar to the CMC. The 18z run was from the EPS which I don't think has started yet. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...