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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Great animation, and it's nice to see from the EPS.  Certainly feels like it's just a matter of days before we're tracking a legitimate threat.

Yeah, it’s supposed to rain again tomorrow! Our best storms sneak up with almost no warning!:snowing:

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Right now I just want the cold air to get here. The other details will have to be sorted out later on down the road. When the cold air gets here then maybe we will be tracking systems within a 3 to 5 day period popping up instead of this fantasy stuff. Too many unknowns out there right now.

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MJO amplitude continues to grow on the MJO plots.  Shown are the Euro MJO changes over the last 6 days...and the CFS MJO changes over the last 3 days.  The GFS plots are similar to the CFS though the CFS holds a higher amplitude into Phase 8.  Personally, I believe the CFS has the right idea here. 

The 2 most likely outcomes IMO are: 1) We get an Aleutian Low developing in the mean pattern, with western ridging, and a nice split flow of storm waves into California in the southern stream <OR> 2) The westerly flow is too overwhelming and attempts at western ridging aren't as aggressive, leading to pattern that is maybe cool at times, but not cold enough.

It is interesting to note that the Euro/EPS has been the least aggressive with western ridging - but it is also the least aggressive with the MJO circuit.  It's possible that the EPS trends colder in late Jan / early Feb if it continues to correct the MJO with more amplitude.

 

QtFG5Ao.gif

2XAaNM3.gif

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58 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, it’s supposed to rain again tomorrow! Our best storms sneak up with almost no warning!:snowing:

Jan 25 2000. Prime example. 

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40 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Jan 25 2000. Prime example. 

Feb 2004 and Feb 2014 are also great examples. I was really young in 2004, but if I remember correctly, they were only calling for 4-6 inches. And Feb 2014 was supposed to miss us to the south, I believe. Edit: I would gladly take a half of foot and be satisfied for the rest of the winter. I know, I know: 

office.gif

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

NC peeps gonna love 18z gfs!! Says pattern change and frozen precip coming this Saturday!! Been trending colder and Sourh the last few days!:snowing:

I'll believe it when there's wintry precip hitting my face

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

MJO amplitude continues to grow on the MJO plots.  Shown are the Euro MJO changes over the last 6 days...and the CFS MJO changes over the last 3 days.  The GFS plots are similar to the CFS though the CFS holds a higher amplitude into Phase 8.  Personally, I believe the CFS has the right idea here. 

The 2 most likely outcomes IMO are: 1) We get an Aleutian Low developing in the mean pattern, with western ridging, and a nice split flow of storm waves into California in the southern stream <OR> 2) The westerly flow is too overwhelming and attempts at western ridging aren't as aggressive, leading to pattern that is maybe cool at times, but not cold enough.

It is interesting to note that the Euro/EPS has been the least aggressive with western ridging - but it is also the least aggressive with the MJO circuit.  It's possible that the EPS trends colder in late Jan / early Feb if it continues to correct the MJO with more amplitude.

 

Grit, I don't know much about the AAM aside from some quick online research, but wouldn't a huge spike in the AAM like is being shown on the EPS be bad for a long-term colder pattern in the east? Seems so from what I've read. Also the EPO is always shown to dive negative but the brakes are always pumped as we get closer.

Seems like every year we add a new oscillation/anomaly/abbreviation that ruins our winters. lol

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6 minutes ago, griteater said:

Clearly, the first period of interest following the Fri-Sat mix to rain deal is next Monday - Tuesday where we look to see if the northern stream can dig far enough south and west to ignite a SE coastal storm.

That's what I'm looking at. The storm this weekend isn't worth following. 

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31 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Grit, I don't know much about the AAM aside from some quick online research, but wouldn't a huge spike in the AAM like is being shown on the EPS be bad for a long-term colder pattern in the east? Seems so from what I've read. Also the EPO is always shown to dive negative but the brakes are always pumped as we get closer.

Seems like every year we add a new oscillation/anomaly/abbreviation that ruins our winters. lol

It's kind of funny that folks have been talking about the lack of +AAM causing it to be warm, then now, there is talk of us getting too much +AAM with a warm result as well.

So with the +AAM and MJO circuit thru 7-8-1, we should expect to see the Pacific jet extend, leading to a tendency of seeing an Aleutian / North Pac Low with western ridging and split flow (ideal)...but too much +AAM / too strong MJO and you get scenario 2 I mentioned earlier where the jet extension / westerly flow is too strong and the western ridging gets broken down and doesn't sustain itself (cool at times, but not cold enough)

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With the 21st threat I just hope the suppression isn't overwhelming and that the flat flow off the eastern US doesn't cause a late bloomer for those of us further west. 

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2 hours ago, griteater said:

MJO amplitude continues to grow on the MJO plots.  Shown are the Euro MJO changes over the last 6 days...and the CFS MJO changes over the last 3 days.  The GFS plots are similar to the CFS though the CFS holds a higher amplitude into Phase 8.  Personally, I believe the CFS has the right idea here. 

The 2 most likely outcomes IMO are: 1) We get an Aleutian Low developing in the mean pattern, with western ridging, and a nice split flow of storm waves into California in the southern stream <OR> 2) The westerly flow is too overwhelming and attempts at western ridging aren't as aggressive, leading to pattern that is maybe cool at times, but not cold enough.

It is interesting to note that the Euro/EPS has been the least aggressive with western ridging - but it is also the least aggressive with the MJO circuit.  It's possible that the EPS trends colder in late Jan / early Feb if it continues to correct the MJO with more amplitude.

 

QtFG5Ao.gif

2XAaNM3.gif

That's my hope as well Grit. Perhaps the EPS won't pop a ridge in Alaska because it's not "seeing" the higher amp 7/8.  12z seemed to have a bit of one further out in time but yeah, it's way out there in time. 

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21 minutes ago, griteater said:

#3 is beautiful for example (from 18z GEFS Members).  Some other hits in there

vedgQG1.gif

If it's snowing on the Gulf Coast of Texas and Mexico, it better damn well snow here. Otherwise, I am packing up my stuff and moving to Mount Washington, NH.

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7 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Suprising,  they are usually very conservative with the s word.

They always have been !   But they seem to have changed their tune.

 

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32 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Could be, we shall see

Many here wouldn't even notice it. They would be too busy downloading and posting 340 hour maps.

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5 minutes ago, jburns said:

Many here wouldn't even notice it. They would be too busy downloading and posting 340 hour maps.

Hey now, some of us need to know what it's not going to do in 2 weeks!!!

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Wow, the 18z GEFS was strong on the CAD. It actually kept the favored NC western Piedmont and Foothills below freezing through 18z Saturday. 

47DC16E2-F859-4ED2-9829-F9DEB2E07E40.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

Wow, the 18z GEFS was strong on the CAD. It actually kept the favored NC western Piedmont and Foothills below freezing through 18z Saturday. 

47DC16E2-F859-4ED2-9829-F9DEB2E07E40.jpeg

That is impressive 

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