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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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EPS isn't necessarily bad, it's just worse than 00z. At this point changes at H5 are well within the realm of possibility.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-0126400.thumb.png.db455c5f670e57c4c1f6bbc42aa70cd2.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-0126400.thumb.png.f8e078e3a1b2448a6da737a35fa36c7a.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-0126400.thumb.png.5c99ad97a3e54c44652fa8ecd0c92983.png
 
Yeah... That's way down from 0z

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Why on earth do we care about these snowfall totals at nearly 300 hours out? The EPS is still plenty cold. 

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Why on earth do we care about these snowfall totals at nearly 300 hours out? The EPS is still plenty cold. 
Probably because of being tired to death of this freaking heat lock... I want my frosty mornings back

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7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Probably because of being tired to death of this freaking heat lock... I want my frosty mornings back

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Yeah, low 70s in mid January, is joyous! My Japanese maple is leading out!:(

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42 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, low 70s in mid January, is joyous! My Japanese maple is leading out!:(

How about 73º today.  IN BOSTON!!   Broke the previous record for today by 12º.    Boston has had a total of four 70º days in January since 1872.  Two of them this weekend.

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19 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Hour 132 on 18z GFS and the cold push looks weaker.

Looked that way initially, but a western Canada ridge spike drove more cold in as the better subtropical wave moved in. Good looking setup regardless of final outcome here 

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Looked that way initially, but a western Canada ridge spike drove more cold in as the better subtropical wave moved in. Good looking setup regardless of final outcome here 

Agreed

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2 minutes ago, Extreme NEGA said:

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I'll take the under for $500 please.

70° patterns in January dont give up that easily.  I'll ride the mild air until I see the Pac ridge lock in for more than a day or two.

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2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Why on earth do we care about these snowfall totals at nearly 300 hours out? The EPS is still plenty cold. 

Thank you! I understand this a board to discuss weather, even in the long range. But this board is getting muddled up with all these screen shots/clown maps at hour 300. I wish we could have a separate topic for the clown maps, 300 hour GFS maps, ect. 

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GEFS improved and continues to advertise pattern flip without moving the date back. Take the win. You'll give yourself whiplash trying to keep up with the back and forth at this range, especially with split flow potentially developing. 

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GEFS improved and continues to advertise pattern flip without moving the date back. Take the win. You'll give yourself whiplash trying to keep up with the back and forth at this range, especially with split flow potentially developing. 
As I've been saying for the last week... Take the flip, we will deal with precip later

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24 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

GEFS improved and continues to advertise pattern flip without moving the date back. Take the win. You'll give yourself whiplash trying to keep up with the back and forth at this range, especially with split flow potentially developing. 

Yep, close to a lock that we get a period of deep cold sometime after next weekend. 18z gefs has a really nice look d10-13 for a SE storm. A lot has to happen first so focusing on anything specific is like a dog chasing its tail. All systems go beyond d15. The end of the EPS and GEFS both look the same and it looks pretty damn good.

One thing that wasn't around much in 2014 and 15 was the southern stream. Ensembles imply active southern stream down the line. Hurry up and wait but at least we seem to be waiting for a longer duration favorable period. Could continue well into Feb. All weekly/monthly/seasonal guidance looks almost identical for Feb. Not perfect but magnitudes better than anything we've seen this year. Won't truly believe it until I'm shoveling though...

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37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep, close to a lock that we get a period of deep cold sometime after next weekend. 18z gefs has a really nice look d10-13 for a SE storm. A lot has to happen first so focusing on anything specific is like a dog chasing its tail. All systems go beyond d15. The end of the EPS and GEFS both look the same and it looks pretty damn good.

One thing that wasn't around much in 2014 and 15 was the southern stream. Ensembles imply active southern stream down the line. Hurry up and wait but at least we seem to be waiting for a longer duration favorable period. Could continue well into Feb. All weekly/monthly/seasonal guidance looks almost identical for Feb. Not perfect but magnitudes better than anything we've seen this year. Won't truly believe it until I'm shoveling though...

And that 18z run might be the coldest yet. Almost 9 days of temps not getting out of the 30s. 

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54 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

And that 18z run might be the coldest yet. Almost 9 days of temps not getting out of the 30s. 

That’s what it’s going to take to get the job done.  I’d like to see a colder look on the EPS with the 500mb pattern.  GEFS can have more of a cold bias at range 

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6 minutes ago, griteater said:

That’s what it’s going to take to get the job done.  I’d like to see a colder look on the EPS with the 500mb pattern.  GEFS can have more of a cold bias at range 

 

Agreed.  The lack of a -EPO on the EPS concerns me.  That's where the key lies IMO for a true pattern change and sustained cold in the east.  Rooting for the GEFS but very wary of it overmodeling pacific ridging. 

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