NorEastermass128 Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 That is just one puke schit gradient pattern on the GFS. Total garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 It'll probably start snowing in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Epic March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 F*** March. But ill take snow whenever i can get it. March snow is like sleeping with your ex in hopes of getting back with her only to find out she left in the morning and isn't coming back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Epic March I still like the July 4th period! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 The legendary Halloween 2019 cold dump in the West, +3.5 months is starting to show up in non-bs range modeling. Pattern change starts after that, ala November 2019. Got to 21F at my place on Halloween morning - record cold. Should be about a 20-25 day window for the NE, for 2/20 to 3/10 or something. Heat begins to build rapidly after that, like mid-Dec to mid-Jan. Cold today was impressive out here too - 39th coldest day in February in 100 years (2,825 days). One difference from last year is that the severity of the cold isn't the same in Billings or other spots near Canada. Billings had it's second coldest month in ~90 years last February, with 10 days that were 30-40 degrees below average in a 28 day month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 I might need to change the title of this thread to the “Apathetic Room”. I am past the point of panic and now at the point where I just don’t care. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 It was so over weeks ago.......totally boned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 17 hours ago, raindancewx said: The legendary Halloween 2019 cold dump in the West, +3.5 months is starting to show up in non-bs range modeling. Pattern change starts after that, ala November 2019. Got to 21F at my place on Halloween morning - record cold. Should be about a 20-25 day window for the NE, for 2/20 to 3/10 or something. Heat begins to build rapidly after that, like mid-Dec to mid-Jan. Cold today was impressive out here too - 39th coldest day in February in 100 years (2,825 days). One difference from last year is that the severity of the cold isn't the same in Billings or other spots near Canada. Billings had it's second coldest month in ~90 years last February, with 10 days that were 30-40 degrees below average in a 28 day month. Your 2/20 to 3/10 window for coastal storms aligns well with the 2/17 to 3/2 period that I picked in November. I need about 30" to hit my range, which is very doable. Hope we're right- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 On 2/4/2020 at 7:56 PM, raindancewx said: My NAO indicator is still on track. Blending years with a similar Sep-Mar, and May-Apr transition to match current year conditions is a good indicator. March is the period to watch. Great work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Looking at the Northeast records, it actually is pretty rare to get four snowy Marches in a row. Boston-NYC-Philly look like they were above normal in March 2017, 2018, 2019. So you'd have to bet against it for 2020. Will be interesting to see how that plays out, since the NAO indicator does still support a somewhat -NAO for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 56 minutes ago, raindancewx said: Looking at the Northeast records, it actually is pretty rare to get four snowy Marches in a row. Boston-NYC-Philly look like they were above normal in March 2017, 2018, 2019. So you'd have to bet against it for 2020. Will be interesting to see how that plays out, since the NAO indicator does still support a somewhat -NAO for March. It doesn't have to mean a ton of snow....especially if its only marginally negative. Take a look at March 2006... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 This is all roughly in my (nearly complete) Spring forecast...but - The basic idea for me for March is that it should loosely resemble the mid-Nov to mid-Dec period. So starts out cold in the East, then warms up. I've been using 3.5 months (~107 days) as the estimate for this, but lately it's been more like 102 days. There are fairly strong indications for March that warmth will return to the West, but I think the subtropical jet will be shifted into the SW (NM/AZ) at times too, with a lot of moisture. Not every month here gets precipitation, but every time October is wetter than September, it has rained/snowed the following March (37/37) - we had that last year, and this year. September long-term is a much wetter month here than October - so it's a useful indicator, and statistically significant (far more likely to get heavy precipitation in March if Oct>Sept). ~Nov 16-Dec 15 is the March idea. An analog blend that looks similar to that nationally is March 1954, 2004, 2005. We had roughly 3.5x normal precipitation in that period - so the systems that come through should be somewhat different than in recent months if that repeats. See the resemblance? That pattern of dryness from TX to Detroit in December is actually pretty hard to re-create with similar ocean/solar conditions. For the West, a big -NAO in October like 2019 is a warm signal for the West. A big +AO in Jan/Feb is also a pretty strong warm signal for the SW in March. All that being said, Nino 3.4 not cooling during Spring when it is warm is more like a weakening La Nina than an weakening El Nino, and is similar to last year. So that favors cold shots eventually pushing out the Western warmth later in Spring. I'm still toying with it, but I think April might be incredibly warm nationally, despite the correlations shown below, I'm talking like 2/3 of the lower 48, at +4 to +8 or something. January/April usually have common tendencies nationally, and January is the most different period of the Oct-Feb cold season so far, no all-time record cold for the North this year in H2 January. At a lead time of a year, Nino 3.4, which was 9th warmest since 1950 last March, is also a pretty strong cold signal for the Northeast, and the deepest blue area shows up as cold in my blend for March. You can also see the hints of dryness across the South. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 This winter had alot of chances but every one of them has failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 This just wasn't the winter we hoped for, no control over it, as they say, there is always next year(I hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: This winter had alot of chances but every one of them has failed. Did it though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 hours ago, 512high said: This just wasn't the winter we hoped for, no control over it, as they say, there is always next year(I hope) Patterns have been so consistent I think you would have a good shot at nailing the forecast for next winter using this winter and last as the analogs. Obviously not what we want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogmios Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Adding to the hammer of despair taken from Brett Andersons Projected Long Term Forecast: The pattern is locked Jawed with ego's bruised. No changes are a foot in here, so take a break and let us see can we spare a 100 degree day in New York on March 5? Hey at least it is something to talk about. Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Silver lining in all of this is that eventually the rubber band snaps back in future winters and with more authority. So, we’ll just have to sacrifice several ratters in a row to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 I cant wait for this horrible winter to be over. I hope we have a good severe and tropical season. I use to love winter when we had alot of snow but it is getting boring around these parts. Summer is starting to become my favorite season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Summer is starting to become my favorite season. At least heat never lets you down in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I cant wait for this horrible winter to be over. I hope we have a good severe and tropical season. I use to love winter when we had alot of snow but it is getting boring around these parts. Summer is starting to become my favorite season. Wiz is ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 12 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Silver lining in all of this is that eventually the rubber band snaps back in future winters and with more authority. So, we’ll just have to sacrifice several ratters in a row to get there. This is the rubber band snapping back ...now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 12 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This is the rubber band snapping back ...now yeah.. 5, maybe 6 winters out of the past 27 have been "bad", it's only fitting that we will have a few ratters to even the score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 13 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This is the rubber band snapping back ...now Yea and it will eventually snap back favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 I still wake up early to check out the models to see if there are any storms to track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 https://www.scribd.com/document/446483878/Spring-2020-Outlook My Spring Forecast (Mar-May) for anyone curious. General idea is warmed 1954, 1993, 2005, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 On 2/9/2020 at 12:03 PM, Dr. Dews said: yeah.. 5, maybe 6 winters out of the past 27 have been "bad", it's only fitting that we will have a few ratters to even the score This one is a special kind of rat though.....with like a return period of 100 years....even 200 years.....so boned, so boned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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