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Dr. Dews

January 2020 Discussion

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

elephant in the room, it won't take much correction to get that Euro worse, too.

There is only so far W this can go in the modeled pattern.  

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The low is tracking further to the south compared to the previous run.  So why declare defeat already over 130 hours out?  And even if it turns out to be a non winter as it has been for so many mother nature made that decision to balance out the over abundance of snow that occurred in more consecutive recent winters.  We could all go through this again next winter. Or maybe just some of us.  Either way mother nature does not care about our feelings.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That weird fujiwara interaction with the second shortwave early on really caused it to slingshot west...ULL ended up over PIT around 132h...we want that more like philly or the Delmarva. If we get that, then we'll see a significantly colder solution. That's what the 06z EPS did. 

We're going to need to watch what occurs over the west coast.  It appeared as though there was piece of energy that dropped south that sharpened the downstream ridging allowing that secondary s/w do dive further south.

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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Again, as some have mentioned, the sampling for this is pretty much none right now,  let's see how things look on Wednesday. 

GOES-West is sampling it quite well. 

image.thumb.png.7db8f3ab04026960a1739ad64dd92ad1.png

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7 minutes ago, Ogmios said:

The low is tracking further to the south compared to the previous run.  So why declare defeat already over 130 hours out?  And even if it turns out to be a non winter as it has been for so many mother nature made that decision to balance out the over abundance of snow that occurred in more consecutive winters.  We could all go through this again next winter. Or maybe just some of us.

You're asking for an analytic perspective through an emotional/neurotic filter -

 

For the general:  The GGEM and GFS are not altogether very appealing, though still the take away is that there is a system to monitor. The Euro is arriving, interestingly ...better, for winter enthusiasts...

The variability in the 850 mb thermal layout, and in fact ...the totality of it across mid and lower latitudes of N/A through next weekend, is part and parcel headaches in a spring pattern. One run adds a degree...the next shaves.  Cold rain and cat's paws, then the next run becomes a grid concern... and around and around we go.  Live by spring lows ... die by spring lows.  Obviously we are not technically "in" spring, but that doesn't matter to the vagaries of the wind.  It's spring this week, it may be winter next month, regardless of silly human conventions ...etc..etc.. But it is not atypical to spring "bowling" season, to have these lows pocket their own critical thickness and it comes down to timing dynamic pulsation and other nuances as to whether parachutes or more are realized to the surface.  

This Euro's track at 500 mb is a climo gem for big snows, ...and the slow movement and the cooler 850 mb profile by ~ 2 ticks across the board, is a critical difference and this solution bends conifers and sags power lines most likely. 

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5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There is only so far W this can go in the modeled pattern.  

And east, North and south too...........:)

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The euro did get a little mild at 925 across a chunk of SNE when the arc of moisture swings through. Hopefully the 12z eps look better. 

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6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There is only so far W this can go in the modeled pattern.  

Timing and storm phase/maturation are as important 

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We're going to need to watch what occurs over the west coast.  It appeared as though there was piece of energy that dropped south that sharpened the downstream ridging allowing that secondary s/w do dive further south.

This...you can see that pretty clearly comparing the 0z and 12z euro runs. They begin to diverge substantially right around the Thursday time frame...and given this is still only Monday that shows how much of a window we have until this picture really becomes clearer. Given the pieces involved here it may not be until the end of the week when we really have a clear idea...especially with phasing being involved. But once it becomes clear how the ridge/trough evolve Wednesday/Thursday we'll have a much better idea 

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Man, what a putrid look across the Conus.

500h_mslp_na.thumb.png.1da58769d11385c9de3cf36ecbaa35f7.png

It really is. If you want something to go right, that surely isn’t the environment you want. :lol: 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You're asking for an analytic perspective through an emotional/neurotic fixation -

 

For the general:  The GGEM and GFS are not altogether very appealing, though still the take away is that there is a system to monitor. The Euro is arriving, interestingly ...better, for winter enthusiasts...

The variability in the 850 mb thermal layout, and in fact ...the totality of it across mid and lower latitudes of N/A through next weekend, is part and parcel headaches in a spring patter.  Live by spring lows ... die by spring lows.  Obviously we are not technically "in" spring, but that doesn't matter to the vagaries of the wind.  It's spring this week, it may be winter next month, regardless of silly human conventions ...etc..etc.. But it is not atypical to spring "bowling" season, to have these lows pocket their own critical thickness and it comes down to timing dynamic pulsation and other nuances as to whether parachutes or more are realized to the surface.  

This Euro's track at 500 mb is a climo gem for big snows, ...and the slow movement and the cooler 850 mb profile by ~ 2 ticks across the board, is a critical difference and this solution bends conifers and sags power lines most likely. 

Can envision every boob in the region just  sagging to ground . Collecting on chests and d battery ing them right down. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It really is. If you want something to go right, that surely isn’t the environment you want. :lol: 

Manufacturing that cold.

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It's also still a pallid look overall.. .

We need some fresh infusion of dynamics ...typically via the N/stream on the way by, and no run or model type to date appears very interested in supplying any.  Otherwise, that's weak sauce - someone said a boring solution yesterday?  Not my word but wondering if that's apropos at the moment. 

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3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Man, what a putrid look across the Conus.

500h_mslp_na.thumb.png.1da58769d11385c9de3cf36ecbaa35f7.png

Climate modeling: spring and spring like conditions will commence earlier in earlier -

heh...  that oughta poke the hornet's nest...

 

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Maybe we should let this system blow up and flip NAO for future goodness.  Hopefully  it works out but 12z so far (waiting on eps) hasn’t been great.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Climate modeling: spring and spring like conditions will commence earlier in earlier -

heh...  that oughta poke the hornet's nest...

 

Seriously, looks like Spring cutoff season.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Seriously, looks like Spring cutoff season.

get spring out of the way now and have summer arrive by April :tomato: 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can envision every boob in the region just  sagging to ground 

Yeah I said that ... but, hm... The run looks a shave cooler overall, but it's still really weak.   I mean this thing is acting in the runs like an early April meandering ULLs that gets over sold by mid range guidance typically.   If it were April... it's January 26th at go time so - 

The only similarity this thing - at the moment - has comparing 1992 or 1997 is the quasi cut-off nature.  Not much else.

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

get spring out of the way now and have summer arrive by April :tomato: 

If it ain’t gonna snow we might as well get started on spring early. Let’s get the 2020 lawn thread started !

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3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

don't see big changes on the EPS from 6z, anyone else seeing anything of note?

Shade warmer and west but still colder than OP.

Not a huge trend but pretty much expected based on the OP run going west a bit. 

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46 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Seriously, looks like Spring cutoff season.

It does ... Scott's making Hadley Cell jokes but I don't think that's this... Just my opinion, but the termination latitude appears to have receded for the time being.  

That factor aside, I do believe with increasing confidence, however, that it gets more difficult to maintain marginal at our latitude, comparing say...50 years ago ( during the 1970's local time scale Global cooling event...)... hell, I'd take the 1990s over this. 

It seems we become increasing more directly reliant upon some form of direct -EPO, or at least or ephemerally -related delivery to insert cold, or we swing and flip/bounce back proportionately warmer.  We've been lucking in recent years from the NP-Lakes NE regions, with the 2013-2014 through 2016 year... and that may skew existentially what is going on. But times of fast flat and velocity saturation, marked by excessive cold along the 50th parallel, kissing tornado hodos to Indianapolis, seems to terminate out into this sort of blase thing in the middle of winter when it does more frequently, and even in this big winters there... it seems there was capacity to flip dramatically with bigger disparate air mass between warm sectors and cold sides. 

It's a tough argument to sell. Much in the same way the HC has an amorphous poorly distinguishable termination with the westerlies...  this alteration on seasonal patterning is also more smeared ..at times grossly obviously ( like that modeled look right now..) at others, more subtle.

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