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Hoosier

December 15-17 Snow Potential

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Minus a couple runs, most non american models have performed very well with this one as a non event. Riding the op euro usually works out.

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22 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

Looks like an I-71 special!  Unfortunately, it’s the NAM.

This one might be fun! I kinda wish it was more of an I-70 special and a little more south, but still I'll take it.

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12z nam coming in south. Pretty much stopping snow band at I72. At least for the WAA snow

Huge changes again aloft.

Now it’s trying to close off the main wave as it ejects out. That’s a new one...don’t think we’ve seen a model/run trying to do that, until now.

073a9ba13ac9627716652dcb5d20327b.jpg


.

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17 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Huge changes again aloft.

Now it’s trying to close off the main wave as it ejects out. That’s a new one...don’t think we’ve seen a model/run trying to do that, until now.

073a9ba13ac9627716652dcb5d20327b.jpg


.

Wouldn't that lead to a further north scenario typically? Seems like it ended up more south. But it also has that high pressure really nudging south

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Wouldn't that lead to a further north scenario typically? Seems like it ended up more south. But it also has that high pressure really nudging south

It came north, with more of a slight SW-NE swath/track.

It can only go so far north though, with the PV lobe swinging into the northern lakes from Canada.


.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


It came north, with more of a slight SW-NE swath/track.

It can only go so far north though, with the PV lobe swinging into the northern lakes from Canada.


.

Seemed like the snow swath was further south. But maybe just a narrower band and sharper north cutoff. Starting to feel it will be lucky if this snow even makes it to I74. Sometimes these frontogenic bands can really be thread the needle. Deformation band looks to clip here possibly 

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39 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Seemed like the snow swath was further south. But maybe just a narrower band and sharper north cutoff. Starting to feel it will be lucky if this snow even makes it to I74. Sometimes these frontogenic bands can really be thread the needle. Deformation band looks to clip here possibly 

 The snow swath on the northern edge was definitely farther North and later timing as well

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Euro coming in further SE than the NAM. 

Safe to say this storm is pretty much a write-off for most of us given recent trends. But I'll give it till tonight's 00z runs. 

 

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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Euro coming in further SE than the NAM. 

Safe to say this storm is pretty much a write-off for most of us given recent trends. But I'll give it till tonight's 00z runs. 

 

I can't tell you how many times I sat in the bulls eye of a snow storm, only to watch it trend north at the last minute.  Hmmm...Curious??

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5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


It came north, with more of a slight SW-NE swath/track.

It can only go so far north though, with the PV lobe swinging into the northern lakes from Canada.


.

I am not discounting this one yet. Last week the PV lobe did not swing as far south as was forecasted a few days out.  Still holding out hope 

 

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5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Curious if we will see any last second shifts with sampling finally occurring tonight and tomorrow 

Yeah I'll hold out until tomorrow morning. Need this current system to clear out the way and get some sampling on the Pac energy before making any final calls.

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59 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

If Chicago isn’t in the game, these threads always die off. 

yep. I've moved onto the Christmas day snowstorm. 

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3 hours ago, Frog Town said:

I guess the 12Z Euro is the nail, or the last straw, for us Northern hopefuls!  Ohio and Indiana deserves this though.  

This.

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1 hour ago, pondo1000 said:

If Chicago isn’t in the game, these threads always die off. 

Check out wx disco. Its just the opposite of here. Everyone is an OV poster

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1 hour ago, pondo1000 said:

If Chicago isn’t in the game, these threads always die off. 

lol...

yea, I don't even have to look at models...if Alek and Stebo are machine gun posting in a storm thread, I know things aren't looking good for us folks in the forum subtropics. :lol:

As far as this one, I have no feeling either way, probably thinking the best snow is across the northern 1/3rd of Ohio somewhere.  Models all have us changing over to rain...seems reasonable.

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7 minutes ago, buckeye said:

lol...

yea, I don't even have to look at models...if Alek and Stebo are machine gun posting in a storm thread, I know things aren't looking good for us folks in the forum subtropics. :lol:

As far as this one, I have no feeling either way, probably thinking the best snow is across the northern 1/3rd of Ohio somewhere.  Models all have us changing over to rain...seems reasonable.

Yep, just like when Snowlover2 posts, I know most of the subforum is about to get screwed.

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