Hoosier

December 15-17 Snow Potential

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DTX

Next round of Pacific upper level energy/trough swinging through the
Four Corners region on Sunday will spin up another low pressure
system coming out of the southern Plains. This low looks to be
tracking close to the Ohio River on Monday, presenting an
opportunity for accumulating snow to impact southeast Michigan.
Magnitude of the surface wave remains in question, as 00z Euro is a
bit stronger and farther north compared GFS, but especially vs the
flatter Canadian/Icon solutions. None-the-less, GFS ensemble members
give the Euro plenty of support, and several members are even
farther north and deeper. Euro indicating 3-4 g/kg of specific
humidity in the 850-700 MB layer crossing the border which could
support several inches with the proper mid level FGEN, even with
less than ideal thermal profiles.

 

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LOT being aggressive calling for several inches of accumulation (possible) in grids monday which is 72 hours out. Could just very easily go with a blended pops chance of snow this far out, and see how the model madness plays out. Rereading I guess it doesn't hurt to add in potential accumulation possibilities...

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29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

i was mostly trolling Joe but i guess Cary#s works too

Can't argue that. Another December to remember

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Looks like a solid shot from Springfield Illinois to Cleveland of 3-6" with some freezing rain for areas to the south of that. Not the biggest storm but definitely a disruptive weekday storm

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25 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Looks like a solid shot from Springfield Illinois to Cleveland of 3-6" with some freezing rain for areas to the south of that. Not the biggest storm but definitely a disruptive weekday storm

Pretty darn good for this latitude.

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2 minutes ago, ChiTownStorm11 said:

Pretty darn good for this latitude.

Well if you abide by the cyclical nature of things this is ideal. Warmer/dryer December with a shot or two of snow, leading to a cold and snowy January where it'll really pay off.  I have seen too often where a cold snowy Nov-Dec turn into a blah January thru March snow wise

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Euro is still way too light on the cold side of the system, also this run is stronger than the 06z run though not as good as the 00z run.

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Euro is still way too light on the cold side of the system, also this run is stronger than the 06z run though not as good as the 00z run.

Why do you say its way too light ?


.

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6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Euro is still way too light on the cold side of the system, also this run is stronger than the 06z run though not as good as the 00z run.

Not exactly a pillar of consistency in the last few runs.  Wonder if we will see a dramatic north distribution with the EPS again.

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7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Euro is still way too light on the cold side of the system, also this run is stronger than the 06z run though not as good as the 00z run.

Other guidance is fairly similar.

Without a more amped wave, or one that tries to close off, this is what we're going to have.

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Just now, bhamwx205 said:


Why do you say its way too light ?


.

Strong moisture advection, along with strong positive vorticity advection as well. Problem is the Euro is leaving too dry of an atmosphere behind the front on Saturday. I don't buy dew points in the single digits or lower in its wake.

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