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Hoosier

December 15-17 Snow Potential

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I'm holding it against you if the 00z GFS isn't correct verbatim.

Either way, I am concerned the low develops too quickly and ends up getting suppressed in the southern high plains before it can really eject. ie the favorite solution that the Euro/UKie have been showing for a few days now.

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5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Please elaborate before I have a stroke... Sweet for who?

I'm sorry I actually just based it on what I saw here; 

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest 

I don't have access to the premium models. Perhaps somebody else does ? 

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Yes, the UK is a big improvement tonight, although still south of Iowa.  The energy is much sharper as it ejects into the central US.

It hits Kansas and Missouri solidly, then heads ene toward Toledo while weakening some.

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Euro out to 99 hours it should come north some this run the low over the Labrador is weaker this run leading to less confluence in the east along with a weaker high coming down its backside.

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20 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Euro out to 99 hours it should come north some this run the low over the Labrador is weaker this run leading to less confluence in the east along with a weaker high coming down its backside.

Improvement, but not quite enough 

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9 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said:

As usual, I'm in the warm sector again...

I mean it isnt even Christmas yet and you are Southern Indiana. Evansville only averages 12.1" and Cincinnati is around 16" I believe. Climo is pretty against you getting snow of significance in general let alone this year.

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2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Improvement, but not quite enough 

Yeah it's a step. Compared to other models it is on the weakest/furthest south envelope. 

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5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah it's a step. Compared to other models it is on the weakest/furthest south envelope. 

I’d argue it’s similar to the Canadian with the secondary development off the coast. I wouldn’t bet against those two unless the trend continues with the 12z suite.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

I mean it isnt even Christmas yet and you are Southern Indiana. Evansville only averages 12.1" and Cincinnati is around 16" I believe. Climo is pretty against you getting snow of significance in general let alone this year.

Yeah, I know. I guess the 3-4" we got in the November storm got my hopes up..

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GRR

The Monday system...

The GFS has been forecasting this for nearly a week now and the
ECMWF has since the 10th /00z run been bringing the storm closer
to us on the operational runs. The 12/00z run brings snow to GRR
from the ECMWF. Since this is polar closed upper low dropping
south into and southern stream system, this could be power house
storm. We will have to watch this closely.

 

DTX

Yet another system will then track near the southern Great Lakes
from the four corners Monday and Monday night. GFS and ECMWF remain
far apart with their solutions but the main story will be that a
strong low may track through the Ohio Valley region which would put
southern MI in the colder, deformation region of the low. Depending
on how far north or south it tracks will determine how far north
precipitation can reach and what ptype will occur. The piece of the
jet that will be responsible for this storm isn`t set to reach the
NW conus til Saturday night so may be some time before models really
start converging on a track.

 

 

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^

most likely. Though from some  of the info I'm hearing  this A.M. there was a fairly decent shift in a number of  the euro ensembles in the direction of the GFS.

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2 hours ago, Baum said:

^

most likely. Though from some  of the info I'm hearing  this A.M. there was a fairly decent shift in a number of  the euro ensembles in the direction of the GFS.

Most of the modeling Im seeing shows the OP GFS the northern outlier and even its 6Z run ticked south. GEFS members mostly further south of OP along with CMC, EPS. Ukie came north to join CMC and Euro  Paints an I70 storm more than I80 especially up by Chicago and points north.Also if the EPS is to be believed holiday week looks Chistorm mild

Screenshot_20191212-073952_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Yikes at the overrunning going on with this thing. Nice little cutter dropping good snow from Chicago-Detroit while Indiana and Ohio get slammed with ice.  Also some solid cold behind it could really get the lake effect machine going on the backside, could see places in West Michigan get buried next week

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1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

Most of the modeling Im seeing shows the OP GFS the northern outlier and even its 6Z run ticked south. GEFS members mostly further south of OP along with CMC, EPS. Ukie came north to join CMC and Euro  Paints an I70 storm more than I80 especially up by Chicago and points north.Also if the EPS is to be believed holiday week looks Chistorm mild

Screenshot_20191212-073952_Samsung Internet.jpg

I'm looking more for trends of a decent storm somewhere in the forum. Doesn't necessarily have to be northern Illinois.

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If model convergence as you get closer means anything, then maybe we'll see a northward bump on the 12z Euro.  Sometimes it's not that easy though.  

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Just now, Hoosier said:

If model convergence as you get closer means anything, then maybe we'll see a northward bump on the 12z Euro.  Sometimes it's not that easy though.  

Euro is gonna at least bump north, more ridging out ahead of the wave at 72hrs.

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11 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Euro is gonna at least bump north, more ridging out ahead of the wave at 72hrs.

South and weaker.

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1 minute ago, Thundersnow12 said:

North bump cancel. Indian summer back on 

You ask, you shall receive...

79774477_2584835601748041_287424146365743104_n.png?_nc_cat=106&_nc_ohc=MkXWftGf_r0AQkzsKibWhwInD2fH6NJgmUuy4T2U8p7hqADaPg8VWhoVw&_nc_ht=scontent.fdpa1-1.fna&oh=64942f2398c7bb13871ad9e501990a8c&oe=5E718EF0

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Part of the reason why it is weaker is that it is leaving vorticity back in the southwest. No model is doing that and it is a known Euro bias. With a weaker ejection and trailing the vorticity in the southwest, the vort max is easier to shear out instead of coming out as a shortwave.

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