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Ginx snewx

Happy Birthday Old Man Winter storm obs

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Just now, JC-CT said:

The Euro shat itself in CT last night

Don't think many models were able to nail done those bands, But i wasn't paying much attention.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Don't think many models were able to nail done those bands, But i wasn't paying much attention.

Only one model did - the HRRR

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8 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Still coming down at a good clip in North Andover. Probably the best its come down in round 2 as the WW warning expires :blink: 

Does LWM not report snow totals? 

SnowTotals.jpeg

that's funny that Fiskdale only got 3.5". We used to live there (sturbridge) and recall getting low end totals sometimes similar to the Valley, but they got screwed this time

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4 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

9" total snow here, has slightly settled but an 8" depth right now. A bit of a gradient around here it seems as I was just down near the Cheshire line and they def had a bit less there... maybe more like 5-6" depth.

Yep. I'm on the south side of town about 1/4' from the Cheshire line and had 6". Pretty good north to south gradient up the Farmington valley reflected in the NWS snow totals. 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty good, but not done yet.

 

Final Call.png

SnowTotals.thumb.jpeg.f4107ea481dd50d21bcc16f1676a13ff.jpg

Map does not accurately depict totals across western Hartford County and eastern Litchfield County; I had 15 total in Burlington (western Hartford Cty and Harwinton in eastern Litchfield Cty has 14"... BOX has not updated my total... 

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Sun trying to peak through as flurries continue. The events are fun but man my pack enthusiasm has evaporated as I've gotten older. Wish this could magically disappear after the last flake falls.

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  • Weenie 2

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9 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Last weenie band setting up over Eastern Mass inside 495.

Going out with a bang it looks like

So close to my west but none for me on this last band.  I'll have to blow out the slop the plows leave but thats about it.  I think I'm at 17"

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3 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Sun trying to peak through as flurries continue. The events are fun but man my pack enthusiasm has evaporated as I've gotten older. Wish this could magically disappear after the last flake falls.

Yeah, wish we could torch 60's through the end of the week

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That last Band is going right down 93. Glad I left the city early. Ride in was a little sketchy but the ride home was much better. Gonna go out and clean up what fell this AM must be close to 19” at this point.

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty good, but not done yet.

 

Final Call.png

SnowTotals.thumb.jpeg.f4107ea481dd50d21bcc16f1676a13ff.jpg

Really appreciate your forecast Ray and taking the time to share your thoughts. In addition, thanks to all of the mets on this board that provide such thoughtful and excellent insight that you can't get anywhere else. 

Ended with around 14" in Framingham but hard to tell because of some compaction from yesterday. Cool storm but a PITA to track. 

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19 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

How much did NYC get?  Did Ray nail it or was his bias showing through?

Central Park officially 1.6”. My backyard a little under 3”, Long Island and NYC generally 1-3”. Was a lousy storm here where we knew we would be on the short end days ago and relying on whatever rotated around the low. But nice start to winter anyway. 

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17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Don't think many models were able to nail done those bands, But i wasn't paying much attention.

The lesson that you take away from this system, and it is a lesson that has to be constantly harped about, is that modeling will more often than not do poorly on the placement of these meso bands.  They will show you the well known pattern features that imply significant banding should occur, but they will struggle or just completely fail on getting the location and often the intensity of the banding correct.  The upper air components were screaming banding for days with this setup and folks were living and dying each model run on where the banding was being depicted by admiring qpf or clown snowfall projection maps.  In the end, the take-away is use the modeled 500/700/850 forecast tracks & configuration to forecast the likelihood of banding but only give general hints at where it might end up.  Then it becomes a nowcast deal as the banding starts to tip its hand; late yesterday afternoon and very early in the evening, nowcasting using mainly the SPC meso analysis page you could see how and where the banding was going to setup.  I expect the models to miss the banding location(s) more times than not; we have seen it numerous times over the years.  With this system most if not all of the primary models were screaming banding if you looked at the 500/700/850 forecasts.  But it almost always comes down to nowcasting for the final outcome.

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13 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Map does not accurately depict totals across western Hartford County and eastern Litchfield County; I had 15 total in Burlington (western Hartford Cty and Harwinton in eastern Litchfield Cty has 14"... BOX has not updated my total... 

Also, who the hell recorded a storm total of 5” in Manchester? 

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Drove down from Boscawen through concord to Manchester and now londonderry.  6.5 at my house to 8-10 concord to 20+ Manchester and 2 ft ish In londonderry.  93 in decent shape and now doing final leg to the airport via a bus to Logan.  Light snow with pokes of fun but I will get to go they the final ema band in a few

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52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s 2 no fails for big snows in SNE. 
#1 Deep easterly inflow and Ginx posted it days ago 

#2 ULL south of LI.

Whenever those two are both present there will be BIG totals and if one or the other is present there will be minimally a moderate snowfall. Remember that that that were making love to little snow model runs 

There's some truth to this....I rememeber talking in an exchange with dendrite a couple days ago about the obscene mid-level inflow. I was starting to worry about a firehose and that we might have some monster totals. We never totally got the Mar 2013 look (though for a time it started to look like that last night), but we didn't need to get it to have a big storm because this moved so slow and had a better wrap-around ML structure this morning than that storm.

Never give up when you have a potent ULL going at that latitude underneath us.

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