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Ginx snewx

Happy Birthday Old Man Winter storm obs

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr was Terrible. Usually that model kind of latches onto trends, but not this time.

It latched on to that convection and never let go. Might be something to keep in mind when dealing with mid level related snowfalls going forward.

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1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

It latched on to that convection and never let go. Might be something to keep in mind when dealing with mid level related snowfalls going forward.

Mid level rule worked well

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10 minutes ago, Greg said:

There must be a lesson to learn here on when and how to read models. Medium Range vs. Short Range and when to use which one for the best analysis.

The lesson is to couple model analysis with meterological intellect. We had a huge upper low passing beneath sne, and while guidance occasionally remained east with best forcing right up until go time, we know that that usually verifies a bit west of guidance. We also know that heaviest precip is normally somewhat west of modeled qpf max.

Models are much better at resolving low level forcing, but still struggle tremendously with forcing in the mid levels.

I'm glad I went big and nailed it. I remember insisting to scooter yesterday that we should get it, however I got so nervous last night that I finally just set the alarm for 4am and crashed. That was almost as good a call as the forecast. Lol

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Great last Band over me right now. Love it. I will measure the final total when this last band is totally done.:snowing:

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mid level rule worked well

I had my little hissy fit before logging on to actually see the meso page last night. 

Seemed pretty obvious it would be a nice little 3-6" event despite the models being out to lunch. Follow 700-850 track, and it was pretty textbook actually.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The lesson is to couple model analysis with meterological intellect. We had a huge upper low passing beneath sne, and while guidance occasionally remained east with best forcing right up until go time, we know that that usually verifies a bit west of guidance. We also know that heaviest precip is normally somewhat west of modeled qpf max.

Models are much better at resolving low level forcing, but still struggle tremendously with forcing in the mid levels.

I'm glad I went big and nailed it. I remember insisting to scooter yesterday that we should get it, however I got so nervous last night that I finally just set the alarm for 4am and crashed. That was almost as good a call as the forecast. Lol

Well last night in particular models had like 1” QPF not even 24 hours earlier. I’m not talking about the stuff yesterday. I mean last night. It was definitely more tame, but a good event. 

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There’s 2 no fails for big snows in SNE. 
#1 Deep easterly inflow and Ginx posted it days ago 

#2 ULL south of LI.

Whenever those two are both present there will be BIG totals and if one or the other is present there will be minimally a moderate snowfall. Remember that that that were making love to little snow model runs 

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Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said:

This snowfall is exactly twice as large as the largest snowfall last year in my area. The 7.5" in November of 2018 was the largest.

How much did you get this storm?

:blink:

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27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr was Terrible. Usually that model kind of latches onto trends, but not this time.

It nailed the band in west central/central CT last evening Spot On however.  So it did well here.  

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

It nailed the band in west central/central CT last evening Spot On however.  So it did well here.  

It did well there. But for whatever reason did not like to wrap snows back in.

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

It nailed the band in west central/central CT last evening Spot On however.  So it did well here.  

 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It did well there. But for whatever reason did not like to wrap snows back in.

Well, it was triggered by two completely different things. That's probably why.

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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean last night.

Yeah I was not feeling it and it worked out better. I did not expect a shut out, but was thinking 2-4" best. I'll end up over 6 new. At least we know the mid level rule worked. I admit once it burned me last year, but it's works well because there is science behind it.

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr was Terrible. Usually that model kind of latches onto trends, but not this time.

PF rates it up there with the Euro, Its a POS, It last 4 runs at 18z, 0z, 06z and 12z were all over the board.

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