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NYCSNOWMAN2020

WINTER 2019/2020 BANTER

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31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

unlikely.    Every telly is against us and doesn't look to change anytime soon.  Snowless and likely sunless coming up

Until end of February into March

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21 hours ago, uncle W said:

90 at the end of April...it was not a hot summer...

both 1931-32 and 1989-90 might be useful analogs though, they both had very hot summers the year after (1933 and 1991).... and if the 11 year pattern holds so will 2021!

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13 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Of the 151 complete years recorded so far NYC has an average snowfall of 28.8 inches and a median of 27.1

Of those 151 seasons the breakdown is as follows:

  • 69 seasons have had between 20-40 inches of snow or 46% of their winters. Maybe call that your normal NYC winter.
  • 35 seasons over 40 inches or 23%,
  • 38 between 10-19.9 inches or 25% 
  • 9 seasons below 10 inches or 6%.
  • Summary, so far this winter in NYC ranks up there among the all time stinkers, and when you throw in the ridiculously high temperature anomaly so far just makes it worse.

So >40 inches is just as likely as 10-19.9 inches..... being a child of the 80s I find that so difficult, because we never had 40 (or even 30) inches of seasonal snowfall in that entire decade.  Actually from 1978-79 through 1992-93!

 

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

unlikely.    Every telly is against us and doesn't look to change anytime soon.  Snowless and likely sunless coming up

the sunless part really pisses me off, I hope we dont get that for the spring and summer.

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the sunless part really pisses me off, I hope we dont get that for the spring and summer.

More sun = more growth = more allergens waiting to ruin your day ;) A couple of years ago we had a very wet and gloomy spring that didn't really end until around Memorial Day. This left the local forests with nearly no understory until late June and it never fully recovered from the slow start. Unfortunately the mold was pretty terrible...

 

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don how does Israel get affected by the AO so far south?

 

The ridging across Europe teleconnects to troughs in the Middle East and Northern Africa during the winter.

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Why did I get suspended? I don’t understand who this guy @BxEngine but he doesn’t know what he’s doing. I’d like to speak to a supervisor. I don’t even know why I got suspended I need an explanation here, it’s so annoying this guy clearly doesn’t like me and he can get away with it. It isn’t fair to decent guy like me. @Rjay could you explain to me why I got suspended for the last week?

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11 hours ago, NYCSNOWMAN2020 said:

Despite awful winter...i still say we sneak one moderate in..for city and coasties and at least 2 for inland folks..now when i say moderate i would be thirilled with 3 to 6 type event  ....we shall see ..

I'm pretty confident it will snow again, it can snow even in lousy patterns, do I truly expect a pattern change by the end of the month or a significant snowstorm anywhere near the coast this winter, no. 

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13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Because items possible 

Mjo on the euro is really nice.

The GFS/GEFS has looked “great”, cold/snowy in the long range since the end of November....

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The GFS/GEFS has looked “great”, cold/snowy in the long range since the end of November....

some have not figured out its cold/snowy bias past day 7.      

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57 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It's getting difficult to even bother to look each morning. Why should I start out my day just affirming the  obvious and getting depressed. This isn't going away.

I guess some small  good news is that expectations were lowered well in advance. The very unfavorable Pacific pattern began last winter. Even though the first 3 weeks of December were a little colder than average, the hostile Pacific showed its cards early. The same pattern repeated in early December as all last winter. Cutter and hugger storm tracks lead to the heaviest snows ending up over the interior sections relative to the NYC area. Once the pattern warmed up after December 20th, we experienced one of the most unfavorable MJO, +AO, and +EPO patterns of all-time.

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NYC still needs 12.9 inches of snow by next December 31 to reach a 30 year average of 30 inches per season for the 1991-2020 period to be calculated next January. What seemed like a lock for them two years ago seems to be more and more unlikely to happen. With the way this winter is fading into oblivion without a whimper, and with the unreliability of November and recent Decembers, if I was a betting man I'd now bet against it happening.

Here's the average snowfall per month at Central Park since January 1991 through January 2020:

October........0.1
November....0.5
December....4.9
January.......8.7
February....10.5
March..........5.1
April.............0.4

Total.........30.3

WTS even if it doesn't snow anymore between now and next December 31st they will have a 29.6 inch average so we could always round up. Of course they're close enough now that one MECS could put them over the top, but those have been hard to come by in the past couple of years, and is certainly very unlikely in this current pattern.
 

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omg. youtube recommended a TWC archive video and i'm pretty sure it shows the severe event that got me into weather in the first place. there was widespread damage across bayonne and my dad drove us around to look at it

 

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wow that seals it for me. i remember an extremely dark steel blue sky before it hit. i went inside as it started and then branches blew across the window

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